Better than even is my calculation. Just.
Bottom three is settled imo. Widnes and Hull KR are done, and Salford aren’t far behind.
So we’re in a battle with Catalans and Leeds to avoid 9th.
Leeds are in shocking form and need to start winning. But, courtesy of the Stone era philosophy of not attempting to score, we have a shocking points difference.
I think it will be very tight. It’s in our hands though - keep winning and we’ll be fine.
When I say, by my calculation, what I mean is that I’ve built a Monte Carlo simulation of the end of the season (with 10,000 runs) and it puts us in the top eight 54% of the time.
Interestingly, it never puts Widnes in the 8 so even though they are 9 points behind and have 12 to play for, I suspect some combination of other results means they are already mathematically outside the 8.