Impending shock to world financial system? : Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:13 pm  

Looks like property prices in China are set to collapse (maybe by up to 50%). How do you think that will affect global trade and financial institutions? Will we be bailing out banks again?

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Fri Oct 03, 2014 6:31 am  

It'll be Gordon Browns fault if the world banking system collapses again - thats how it goes.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Fri Oct 03, 2014 6:35 am  

I'm more worried for when the London bubble bursts.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Fri Oct 03, 2014 6:54 am  

Hey up, Dally's out of prozac again. We're DOOOOOOOMED!

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Fri Oct 03, 2014 4:03 pm  

ryano wrote:

Hey up, Dally's out of prozac again. We're DOOOOOOOMED!

Sooner or later this whole credit ponzi scheme is going to pop and it will be worse then 2008 because nothing has changed apart from the debts getting bigger.

I thought it might happen if Scotland voted for independence but fortunately for the markets they voted no.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:16 am  

As a slightly serious answer to the original question, western banks are generally less exposed to the Chinese property market than they were to the US.

Indirectly the exposure is massive if China really falters, due to its knock-on effect on commodity prices and exports. However, it should be borne in mind that China isn't looking at anything like the western definition of a recession - just a slowing in growth.

But given that forecast growth for both 2014 and 2015 is more than 7%, that's still an enormous amount of incremental economic activity.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Sun Oct 12, 2014 5:33 pm  

UK interest rates set to rise to 0.75% according to a friend in the know. That'll be interesting.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:49 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

UK interest rates set to rise to 0.75% according to a friend in the know. That'll be interesting.

Your friend is about as in the know as my goldfish then. I'm no financial expert, and even I know that the inflation figures mean the government can get away with no rate rises for many months, maybe at least a year. And certainly not before the next election.

And you can put your money on that. Or you could, except the bookies have stopped offering odds on an early rise which always seals the deal for me. Why, I can get odds of 500/1 on the next Pope calling himself "Paddy Power", but nothing on an interest rise. The money men of course already did put their money on no rise, which is why sterling took such a hammering.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:58 am  

Interest rate changes have to be announced immediately they're agreed.

Re: Impending shock to world financial system? : Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:31 pm  

He told me to expect it next March.