Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:57 pm  

The major problem with the current slump in housing development is nothing whatsoever to do with planning regulations and any developer or government representative who siggests that it is is a liar, plain and simple - they built hundreds of thousands of new houses before 2010 with the current regulations in place and the requirement for a percentage of affordable housing in place - and the builders loved it, it meant that a trenche of their new developments was sold within days, off plan, before even a turf had been turned.

The major problem with the current slump in housing development is plain and simple - buyers, especially first time buyers, can't get the finance - fix that problem and we're back in boom times again.

[John_D]

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 1:03 pm  

JerryChicken wrote:

The major problem with the current slump in housing development is plain and simple - buyers, especially first time buyers, can't get the finance - fix that problem and we're back in boom times again.

And part of that issue was the abandonment of the three-times salary 'rule' that kept borrowing affordable and house prices sensible.
In 2000, I was developing mortgage application systems. The writing was on the wall when some of the mid-size banks and building societies we dealt with asked for the massive QI-style klaxon I'd written in that went off when it went over three times to be put up to 3.5. And then 4. And then 5... and so on.
On the back of the amounts people were suddenly able to borrow - regardless of the serviceability of the debt - saw house prices rise inexorably and people treat them more as investments than somewhere to live.

[DaveO]

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 1:37 pm  

This removal of planning restrictions is yet more supply side economic rubbish from the Tories.

This government doesn't actually "do" anything constructive.

It just comes up with one supply side idea after another. The so called increase in capital projects isn't the government spending money to build stuff to try and get the economy going. It just says it will underwrite loans private companies will take out in order for them to get on and undertake the large capital projects.

There is no guarantee anyone is going to take advantage of these planning restriction being lifted just like there is no guarantee private companies are going to take advantage of the loan guarantee scheme.

Meanwhile the economy continues to stagnate.

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 1:39 pm  

John_D wrote:

And part of that issue was the abandonment of the three-times salary 'rule' that kept borrowing affordable and house prices sensible.
In 2000, I was developing mortgage application systems. The writing was on the wall when some of the mid-size banks and building societies we dealt with asked for the massive QI-style klaxon I'd written in that went off when it went over three times to be put up to 3.5. And then 4. And then 5... and so on.
On the back of the amounts people were suddenly able to borrow - regardless of the serviceability of the debt - saw house prices rise inexorably and people treat them more as investments than somewhere to live.

Spot on.

The amounts being asked for small residences are now utterly insane.

Two examples (apologies if you've seen me mention them before):

1) Our housing association, shared ownership block of 12 flats, built 17 years ago. Initially £60K – or £30K mortgage and rent. The combination of these was less than the market private rent at the time. Around four to five years ago, one was sold. It had two bedrooms (one a boxroom), no carparking space, but a small garden. Went for £364,000.

2) Development of 72 flats just down the road. Half had to be 'affordable'. Went on the market four years ago (IIRC). A private one-bed flat was £250,000. So an 'affordable' one-bed flat was £125,000. So with your sensible mortgage, you'd need to be a single person on £40K plus – or a couple (with no desire for a family) on £20K plus each. And although the area is getting trendy, this is not bloody Hampstead.

It's absolutely insane.

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 1:49 pm  

Kosh wrote:

If I were a Tory MP in anything other than a gold-plated safe seat I'd be very worried right now. Looks as if the current incumbents have accepted that they'll only be a single-term government and are actively getting their snouts - and those of their mates - as deeply in the trough as possible while it lasts.

...........with a Labour government unlikely to repeal any legislation on gaining power, as in 1997, especially trade union reform.

[John_D]

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:05 pm  

rover49 wrote:

...........with a Labour government unlikely to repeal any legislation on gaining power, as in 1997, especially trade union reform.

Therein lies the issue. We all* want something different, but where is it?



* - All rational members of society who are interested in things beyond our own self-interests

[John_D]

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:06 pm  

Mintball wrote:

It's absolutely insane.

It is. If the standard hadn't been abandoned, no sub-prime mortgages. No sub-prime mortgages, no collateralised debt obligations... Well, you see where I'm going.
Simplistic, yes, but a massive part of the issue.

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:17 pm  

rover49 wrote:

...........with a Labour government unlikely to repeal any legislation on gaining power, as in 1997, especially trade union reform.

Andy Burnham is certainly suggesting that they'd repeal NHS legislation.

They're being very cagey at present – possibly because they feel that they might as well let this lot just balls up the entire thing and remind people of what they're like, or possibly because, given their own adherence to neo-liberalism under Blair and, to a far lessor extent, Brown.

Again, Burnham (via Twitter) is agreeing that serious policy change is required – when there'll be any flesh on the bones of that remains to be seen.

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:18 pm  

John_D wrote:

It is. If the standard hadn't been abandoned, no sub-prime mortgages. No sub-prime mortgages, no collateralised debt obligations... Well, you see where I'm going.

Absolutely!

John_D wrote:

Simplistic, yes, but a massive part of the issue.

Totally agree.

[John_D]

Re: Cabinet reshuffle : Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:21 pm  

I suspect more of these are going to come dripping through at a rate which means it could last for months. New junior transport minister involved in an incident which left a cyclist with a broken neck. Four penalty points, didn't even have to attend court.

I suspect more of these are going to come dripping through at a rate which means it could last for months. New junior transport minister involved in an incident which left a cyclist with a broken neck. Four penalty points, didn't even have to attend court.