Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning which seems absurd to think of but (although there is some manipulation of the data), this is essentially just reflective of the swing state polls. Silver has commented on Twitter that this %age doesn't mean it's going to be a landslide, it just means it's a probable end result based on the available data.
As an Obama partisan, I think they are overly optimistic odds (I think Florida, certainly S Carolina and probably Virginia are likely to be red so it does bring us down to Ohio and there a small Obama lead in the polls could be overwhelmed by outsized Republican enthusiasm to get rid of him and "reclaim their country" (the dog whistles in that aren't hard to miss)). A win for the President in any of those first three named though and that will be the end of things for Romney.
I think it's going to be a long and nerve-wracking night
So today is the day.
Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning which seems absurd to think of but (although there is some manipulation of the data), this is essentially just reflective of the swing state polls. Silver has commented on Twitter that this %age doesn't mean it's going to be a landslide, it just means it's a probable end result based on the available data.
As an Obama partisan, I think they are overly optimistic odds (I think Florida, certainly S Carolina and probably Virginia are likely to be red so it does bring us down to Ohio and there a small Obama lead in the polls could be overwhelmed by outsized Republican enthusiasm to get rid of him and "reclaim their country" (the dog whistles in that aren't hard to miss)). A win for the President in any of those first three named though and that will be the end of things for Romney.
I think it's going to be a long and nerve-wracking night
'when my life is over, the thing which will have given me greatest pride is that I was first to plunge into the sea, swimming freely underwater without any connection to the terrestrial world'
