Re: The General Election Thread : Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:00 pm  

cod'ead wrote:

The tories have conveniently forgotten that they propped up a minority SNP government in Scotland

Also the Tory voters in Scotland had to go somewhere, they didn't just vanish (or vote Lib Dems)

Listen to the underlying message from the SNP, cut business taxes, cut air transport duty, increase spending on infrastructure for businesses, all sounds very Tartan Tory.

Re: The General Election Thread : Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:01 pm  

DONSONTOP wrote:

If only a party in England could muster 40% of the votes!!!!!!

Looks like it's only the tories that now refuse to accept that the FPTP system is way past its sell-by date.

Abolish the HoL and replace it with a Regional Parliament and introduce PR for the HoC.

For those who maintain PR would only lead to confusion and obfuscation, I suggest they look at some of our European neighbours, they seem to make it work

Re: The General Election Thread : Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:20 pm  

cod'ead wrote:

Looks like it's only the tories that now refuse to accept that the FPTP system is way past its sell-by date.

Abolish the HoL and replace it with a Regional Parliament and introduce PR for the HoC.

For those who maintain PR would only lead to confusion and obfuscation, I suggest they look at some of our European neighbours, they seem to make it work

It's actually something I've changed my mind on.

I used to support FPTP, thinking it's simpler, everyone votes for the 3 main parties anyway, and it means you know who (individual) you're voting for.

But after seeing the effect that minor parties can have and the support they have I would now support PR.

As an example, let's say you're a left wing voter who support virtually all the Green Party policies and would love to vote for them, or alternatively you're a right wing voter who supports UKIP. Under FPTP it's highly likely your vote will be wasted in your constituency as those parties are highly unlikely to get the MP and, by voting for your favoured party you could help your least favoured party (Labour or Tory) get in.

Under PR you can vote for your favoured party.

I've always thought we needed a different House of Lords. It's a complete mish mash of a system. I've always wondered whether it would be an option to have some kind of "Expert" House of Lords. Whereby the members would be a variety of experts in different fields. From Health, Education, Science, Business, Social, Sport, Defence, Religion etc. But it's probably impractical.

Other than that I'd favour some kind of regional representation but would serve for say a 10 year rather than 5 year term.

[DaveO]

Re: The General Election Thread : Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:24 pm  

Cronus wrote:

Will Labour stand by their promise not to align with the SNP in a hung Parliament? That would sway me a little but I'm still not sure I trust them.

They won't. If the SNP want a different direction and to keep the Tories out as they say they do then it is they will have to align with Labour which means support the Labour policies they agree with and vote against those they don't.

What they won't be able to do is prevent the Trident renewal for example. Whether you are for or against that I don't know but what is bound to happen is Labour will vote for it, the SNP against it but it will go through because the Tories will vote for it. 100% nailed on certainty. All the stories about Britain's Nuclear deterrent being at risk due to a Labour/SNP alliance are complete hogwash for this reason.

Will the SNP try to influence policy of the Labour govt? Well of course. If they have 40 odd seats they would try to influence the direction of any government but without being in a formal coalition they only way they can really do that is vote on a policy by policy basis because it won't be them writing the Queens Speech and voting like that gives very little influence anyway. They only way they "win" a vote under those circumstances is if the Tories they profess to hate vote with them.

I doubt they would even get far by proposing amendments to bills either because to get them through they would have to have the Tories supporting SNP amendments to Labour bills the Tories will undoubtedly completely oppose. The SNP won't be able to force Labour to do anything much for this reason.

If the SNP start horse trading with the Tories to try and extract concessions or amendments to Labour bills they supposedly support their credibility goes down the pan.

No doubt the SNP will try and portray things like the repeal of the health and social care bill as something only voted through because of them and that may well be true purely on the numbers but in reality they will have to follow the Labour lead.

Re: The General Election Thread : Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:59 am  

Yep. The SNP aren't going to be able to force Labour to do anything they don't really want to.

The same is true of UKIP and the Tories.

Where it gets tricky/interesting is the role the Lib Dems might play.

As for Trident, you're right, it's going to be renewed but I wonder if the basis of some kind of Labour/SNP deal might be that they'll move the weapons out of Scotland.

Re: The General Election Thread : Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:33 am  

The SNP will support Labour in the first couple of years. They're not going to vote against a budget that includes increased top rate tax, a mansion tax, abolition of the bedroom tax, a bankers bonus tax etc.

But they will fall out eventually. All of those Scottish Labour voters that have switched to the SNP havent done so in the expectation that the SNP will simply have a cosy relationship with Labour. The SNP will have to be able to show that they have advanced the cause of independence or clearly obtained a better deal for Scotland if they are to keep those votes. And Labour will not be re-elected if they blatantly pander to the SNP. There isnt really a win win outcome for the two parties. One of them has to have beaten the other by 2020.

The SNP's biggest weapon is in the votes of confidense. They're not going to bring a Labour government down, at least not for a couple of years. But when the Trident vote goes through they'll probably start to abstain. They'll make sure that the threat of bringing down Labour hangs over the government in the second half of the parliament. It will all end in tears.

Re: The General Election Thread : Thu Apr 23, 2015 9:15 am  

Cibaman wrote:

The SNP will support Labour in the first couple of years. They're not going to vote against a budget that includes increased top rate tax, a mansion tax, abolition of the bedroom tax, a bankers bonus tax etc.

But they will fall out eventually. All of those Scottish Labour voters that have switched to the SNP havent done so in the expectation that the SNP will simply have a cosy relationship with Labour. The SNP will have to be able to show that they have advanced the cause of independence or clearly obtained a better deal for Scotland if they are to keep those votes. And Labour will not be re-elected if they blatantly pander to the SNP. There isnt really a win win outcome for the two parties. One of them has to have beaten the other by 2020.

The SNP's biggest weapon is in the votes of confidense. They're not going to bring a Labour government down, at least not for a couple of years. But when the Trident vote goes through they'll probably start to abstain. They'll make sure that the threat of bringing down Labour hangs over the government in the second half of the parliament. It will all end in tears.

The SNP will not be allowed to forget what happened in 1979 when they helped bring down the Labour government. What followed hit Scotland particularly hard and there'll be no wish to repeat that experience

Re: The General Election Thread : Thu Apr 23, 2015 9:57 am  

Cibaman wrote:

The SNP will support Labour in the first couple of years. They're not going to vote against a budget that includes increased top rate tax, a mansion tax, abolition of the bedroom tax, a bankers bonus tax etc.

But they will fall out eventually. All of those Scottish Labour voters that have switched to the SNP havent done so in the expectation that the SNP will simply have a cosy relationship with Labour. The SNP will have to be able to show that they have advanced the cause of independence or clearly obtained a better deal for Scotland if they are to keep those votes. And Labour will not be re-elected if they blatantly pander to the SNP. There isnt really a win win outcome for the two parties. One of them has to have beaten the other by 2020.

The SNP's biggest weapon is in the votes of confidense. They're not going to bring a Labour government down, at least not for a couple of years. But when the Trident vote goes through they'll probably start to abstain. They'll make sure that the threat of bringing down Labour hangs over the government in the second half of the parliament. It will all end in tears.

I don't see it that way at all. Labour and the SNP don't need to "beat" each other. All the SNP need to do is extract either one major or several minor concessions from Labour.
The SNP and Nicola Sturgeon herself, have already admitted they can't do anything about independence because it requires another Scottish Parliament.
As I said, I wouldn't be suprised to see a concession from Labour that the nuclear weapons will be moved out of Scotland. That would give the SNP a "win" so to speak. Plus a few tax and spend things that in reality Labour would like to do anyway.

There is no way whatsoever the SNP will bring down a Labour government to let the Tories in. They'd be finished as a party.

If the SNP play it right, extract a few concessions, appear sensible and as if they are helping "govern" the country then it massively enhances their position in Scotland and enhances their case for independence.

Re: The General Election Thread : Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:58 pm  

Him wrote:

I don't see it that way at all. Labour and the SNP don't need to "beat" each other. All the SNP need to do is extract either one major or several minor concessions from Labour.
The SNP and Nicola Sturgeon herself, have already admitted they can't do anything about independence because it requires another Scottish Parliament.
As I said, I wouldn't be suprised to see a concession from Labour that the nuclear weapons will be moved out of Scotland. That would give the SNP a "win" so to speak. Plus a few tax and spend things that in reality Labour would like to do anyway.

There is no way whatsoever the SNP will bring down a Labour government to let the Tories in. They'd be finished as a party.

If the SNP play it right, extract a few concessions, appear sensible and as if they are helping "govern" the country then it massively enhances their position in Scotland and enhances their case for independence.

They might not vote to bring down Labour, just severely disrupt them.

When the Trident vote goes through they could announce that they will revert to their traditional stance of only voting on matters that affect Scotland. That doesnt bring the government down, just emasculates them.

And there will be a whole raft of stuff that Labour will want to do that isnt in anyone's manifesto, perhaps not even on the radar yet. Foreign affairs, criminal justice stuff, anti terrorism etc, etc The SNP can easily take a contrary position on them.

The SNP have to differentiate themselves from Labour, move the independence movement forward.

And I dont really think Milliband will move the Trident base a hundered miles down the road to England. It will cost a pile of cash in addition to the replacement missiles, is very time consuming, will not make anyone feel safer and is clearly a very expensive bribe of the SNP. Could cost him the next election.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:23 pm  

cod'ead wrote:

I also like one twitter observation this morning: "The tories wheeling out John Major to bolster their election push is like Liverpool wheeling out Emile Heskey to help assure a top four place"

The Tories bringing out Major is a lot safer than Labour bringing out Blair a couple of weeks ago, I find the man totally repellent.




The SNP seem to be saying 'vote SNP and get rid of Cameron'. If Scots vote Labour they are most likely to do this. Going off the polls Labour are likely to lose 20+ seats in Scotland to the SNP. This would help the Tories as I can't really see much change in England and Wales from the last election. Although this may be the SNPs aim. 5 more years of the Tories will help the cause for independence, especially with the SNP being so good at telling people what they want to hear and blaming all social problems on Westminster.

FPTP will also help the SNP. last time around they returned 6 MP's. From memory most of those the Tories came second in the constituency. This time they will be taking swathes of Labour votes.

If the Unionist parties in Northern Ireland get their act together and work with each other and not against they should win the majority of seats over there. They may prove valuable allies to the Conservatives if an agreement does come about between Labour and the SNP.