Re: The General Election Thread : Sun Apr 26, 2015 5:17 am  

Him wrote:

I don't see it that way at all. Labour and the SNP don't need to "beat" each other. All the SNP need to do is extract either one major or several minor concessions from Labour.
The SNP and Nicola Sturgeon herself, have already admitted they can't do anything about independence because it requires another Scottish Parliament.
As I said, I wouldn't be suprised to see a concession from Labour that the nuclear weapons will be moved out of Scotland. That would give the SNP a "win" so to speak. Plus a few tax and spend things that in reality Labour would like to do anyway.

There is no way whatsoever the SNP will bring down a Labour government to let the Tories in. They'd be finished as a party.

If the SNP play it right, extract a few concessions, appear sensible and as if they are helping "govern" the country then it massively enhances their position in Scotland and enhances their case for independence.

Surely that is not in Labour's longer term interest in Scotland. If they allow the SNP to grow credibility how do they improve their popularity in Scotland where they desperately to reverse the current trend if they are regain the seats they will lose this time?

Re: The General Election Thread : Sun Apr 26, 2015 7:57 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Surely that is not in Labour's longer term interest in Scotland. If they allow the SNP to grow credibility how do they improve their popularity in Scotland where they desperately to reverse the current trend if they are regain the seats they will lose this time?

It's not, in Scotland. But it is for Labours interest in the UK as a whole because it gets them into government. And if Labour and the SNP work relatively amicably together then it provides an option for Labour in future general elections.

Re: The General Election Thread : Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:18 am  

It seems that both Milliband and Sturgeon are busy painting themselves into corners so that any co-operation, even informal, means that one of them will sufffer a severe loss of credibility.

I think its increasingly likely that Labour will go it alone and run a minority government. Dare the SNP to vote against, or abstain, a budget with plenty of left wing measures. Eventually they'll fall out over Trident and Devo Max but by then I dont think Milliband will be too bothered if he needs to engineer a second election in about 18 months.

[DaveO]

Re: The General Election Thread : Mon Apr 27, 2015 12:28 pm  

Cibaman wrote:

It seems that both Milliband and Sturgeon are busy painting themselves into corners so that any co-operation, even informal, means that one of them will sufffer a severe loss of credibility.

I think its increasingly likely that Labour will go it alone and run a minority government. Dare the SNP to vote against, or abstain, a budget with plenty of left wing measures. Eventually they'll fall out over Trident and Devo Max but by then I dont think Milliband will be too bothered if he needs to engineer a second election in about 18 months.

Labour have again ruled out a deal with the SNP and so it won't happen. The SNP will have to tread very carefully on what they oppose a Labour government on. If they are policies their former Labour voters support and they oppose Labour for political reasons they will soon lose their newly gained support.

I think Labour will be quite prepared to suffer the odd defeat with the SNP voting against them to show both English and Scottish voters what happens if you vote SNP. For English voters it shows them the govt isn't in hock to the SNP as it hasn't done dirty deals and sold out English interests. For the Scottish voter it would illustrate if you want a Labour govt the way to get it is vote Labour not SNP.

Labour has to keep the SNP at arms length so in the next election after this the charge from the Tories about Labour/SNP alliances holds no sway at all.

The effect of the fixed term parliament act on any minority govt, Labour or Tory, is going to be interesting. It might be impossible to get a majority in a no-confidence vote as don't you need 66% now not just a simple majority?

Re: The General Election Thread : Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:15 pm  

From my albeit sketchy knowledge of it I think the Act has 2 ways in which an election can be called early.

1 is through a Vote of No Confidence by the House of Commons in the same way it always has.

The other is where 2/3rds of the House of Commons directly calls for an early general Election. So there wouldn't have to be a vote of No Confidence but there'd have to be 2/3rds of the House wanting an Early General Election.

I suppose the first way is how a minority govt could be (potentially) booted out and the 2nd way is for a sitting govt to call for another election early.

Re: The General Election Thread : Mon Apr 27, 2015 3:54 pm  

If a government was effectively unable to pass legislation and put forward a motion for an early general election, could any Leader of the Opposition not support that motion? Turn down the opportunity of an election? They'd have blokes dressed as chickens following them about everywhere.

Apparently in other countries that have fixed term parliaments its not unusual for governments to table a motion of no confidence in itself and then abstain to make sure its passed.

Re: The General Election Thread : Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:19 pm  

Cibaman wrote:

If a government was effectively unable to pass legislation and put forward a motion for an early general election, could any Leader of the Opposition not support that motion? Turn down the opportunity of an election? They'd have blokes dressed as chickens following them about everywhere.

Apparently in other countries that have fixed term parliaments its not unusual for governments to table a motion of no confidence in itself and then abstain to make sure its passed.

Spot on. All the Act did really was take the power to call a General Election out of the sole hands of the PM and into the hands of the government. So the PM would at least have to have the approval of his own party in calling an early election, the other parties as you say would all HAVE to vote for an election.

A government can still be kicked out by a straight majority vote of No Confidence.

Having said that there's no way the SNP would vote against Labour in a No Confidence vote. It'd be suicide for the SNP. Nor would UKIP & the DUP vote against the Tories if the Tories were the main party in government.

Re: The General Election Thread : Tue Apr 28, 2015 5:00 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Surely that is not in Labour's longer term interest in Scotland. If they allow the SNP to grow credibility how do they improve their popularity in Scotland where they desperately to reverse the current trend if they are regain the seats they will lose this time?

That's only if they believe that FPTP has a future, the only party still clinging to that concept is the tory party.

Labour have spent near 20 years ignoring Scotland, it'll take more than five for any confidence to return

Re: The General Election Thread : Tue Apr 28, 2015 7:59 am  

If Milliband becomes PM, what are the chances of him taking steps towards electoral reform? Plenty of stuff on devolution, decentralisation, reducing the voting age in Labour's manifesto. Nothing on FPTP or alternative voting systems.

[DaveO]

Re: The General Election Thread : Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:43 am  

Cibaman wrote:

If Milliband becomes PM, what are the chances of him taking steps towards electoral reform? Plenty of stuff on devolution, decentralisation, reducing the voting age in Labour's manifesto. Nothing on FPTP or alternative voting systems.

No party has a mandate for changing the voting system as in 2011 we had a referendum and it was rejected. Pretty high turnout of 41% of which 62% voted to keep FPTP. A pity but even the Lib Dems won't got for it in the next parliament.

In other news the economy grew less than expected in the 1st 1/4 of this year continuing a trend:

Q1 2014 0.9%
Q2 2014 0.8%
Q3 2014 0.7%
Q4 2014 0.6%
Q1 2015 0.3%

Cameron's reaction? It is a risk to let Labour in to run the economy! On those figures !!!!