Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:38 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Interesting post - Labour wont learn and with the power of the NEC in the hands of hard left Momentum gang it is very likely they will elect a leader in the guise of Corbyn/McDonald

The powerbase in Labour is more in flux than you might think. One surprising development from Corbyn's election as leader was the reduction in influence of the trade unions over the leadership. In the past, Labour leaders have needed to horsetrade with unions to secure their support. Corbyn's support (in the two leadership elections of 2015 and 2016, and his powerbase ground campaigning machine in the 2017 general) came from the youth movement / Momentum.

When Corbyn first won, the unions demanded that McDonnell (who the union leadership has bad history with as he'd been involved in cases supporting union members against union leadership) not be appointed Shadow Chancellor....Corbyn, secure in a powerbase outside the unions, could ignore them. Of all the attacks that were targeted against Corbyn, we never heard 'in the pocket of the unions.' Instead, Corbyn could keep his preferred union man McCluskey close, giving Unite a disproportionate voice and antagonising the rest of the union movement. The other unions generally kept quiet though because they approved of Corbyn's policy agenda.

This reorientation in the powerbase of the left from unions to the youth movement had a number of implications. In the 1980s, the Bennite left was much more focused around the unions and the chosen battleground to take on Thatcher was the strikes. This was more northern-based and more working-class based. But also partly explains why when Thatcher won landslides in 1983 and 1987, Labour MPs piled up huge majorities in the northern heartlands.

The Corbynite left based around the Momentum style youth movement was more spread around the country, more based on young people, more middle-class but also was drawn from a mixture of movements: the ones that had been on Stop the War campaigns, protests against tuition fees, and now the eco-movement, Extinction Rebellion etc. These don't have easily identifiable leaderships to work with like unions do.

At first the reorientation from unions to these movements was an asset to Corbyn. They were young and energetic, skilled at spreading messages on social media, didn't have the old negative baggage that the unions had. Over time though, these caused problems...

First, the antisemitism stuff tends to come from the Stop the War / Free Palestine part of this coalition. It's less dominated by young people and has a lot of aggressive angry activists who like being provocative to raise the profile of the issue. They also live in a social media bubble where commentary that breaches the IHRA guidance on antisemitism is normalised.

Second, the youth part of this coalition was almost exclusively Remain, and lobbied hard for a second referendum and pulled Corbyn reluctantly to that position against his instincts.

Third, their policy focus is more eco-left than traditional class-struggle left, its why why Labour got pushed to the Green New Deal. This isn't necessarily a vote loser for them but they are closer to Greens than traditional Labour.

The challenge for the new leadership is going to come from harnessing and controlling these movements. Although I opposed the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, I think a lot of the stop the war / free Palestine groups are problematic - they contain a lot of people who normalise antisemitism. You can take reasonable policies on these issues without embracing these groups. Corbyn had long history as a figurehead for these groups. The youth vote is also instinctively going to coalesce around the most 'remainer' candidate, as they will want to reorient the party towards a future Rejoin campaign. Keir Starmer will be their natural preference.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:18 pm  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

Johnson won and I hope for the good of the country he improves things for EVERYONE because his majority is such that anything that doesn’t he and the conservatives own. I and many others will be back to tell you we told you so because sadly he and those around him are even more hard right in ideology.

I thought it would take longer than one day before the truth comes out. The nurse numbers are now over 10 years and his promise to retain current employment legislation and environmental protections will be removed because what he said in October to get his deal through no longer stands.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:29 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

The powerbase in Labour is more in flux than you might think. <snip>.

Some very interesting points there.

The race to succeed Corbyn will be influenced by a lot of pretty varied factors. Any winner will in some ways represent a surprise.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:39 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Some very interesting points there.

The race to succeed Corbyn will be influenced by a lot of pretty varied factors. Any winner will in some ways represent a surprise.

Labour need to make a better choice then either Corbyn or Ed Milliband.
They should have chosen David Milliband instead of Ed and they need to realise that if they go down the route of "ideological" left wing policies (as they've had under Corbyn's stewardship), they will be in perpetual opposition.
To have been annihilated by a dysfunctional Tory party, that itself was split down the middle and had to try and come from behind in the polls, tells yo everything you need to know about their chances of government.
On the plus side, the issue of Brexit should be gone by the time the next GE comes around but, to make it back into no 10, they will have to go back to the Blair type policies (obviously without an Iraq war to screw them over).
They must realise that there just aren't enough of the electorate who share their views and that they have to change.
Even with change, there will very likely be 2 terms of Boris - unless of course he has one of his own moments of madness - we can but hope.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:56 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

The powerbase in Labour is more in flux than you might think. One surprising development from Corbyn's election as leader was the reduction in influence of the trade unions over the leadership. In the past, Labour leaders have needed to horsetrade with unions to secure their support. Corbyn's support (in the two leadership elections of 2015 and 2016, and his powerbase ground campaigning machine in the 2017 general) came from the youth movement / Momentum.

When Corbyn first won, the unions demanded that McDonnell (who the union leadership has bad history with as he'd been involved in cases supporting union members against union leadership) not be appointed Shadow Chancellor....Corbyn, secure in a powerbase outside the unions, could ignore them. Of all the attacks that were targeted against Corbyn, we never heard 'in the pocket of the unions.' Instead, Corbyn could keep his preferred union man McCluskey close, giving Unite a disproportionate voice and antagonising the rest of the union movement. The other unions generally kept quiet though because they approved of Corbyn's policy agenda.

This reorientation in the powerbase of the left from unions to the youth movement had a number of implications. In the 1980s, the Bennite left was much more focused around the unions and the chosen battleground to take on Thatcher was the strikes. This was more northern-based and more working-class based. But also partly explains why when Thatcher won landslides in 1983 and 1987, Labour MPs piled up huge majorities in the northern heartlands.

The Corbynite left based around the Momentum style youth movement was more spread around the country, more based on young people, more middle-class but also was drawn from a mixture of movements: the ones that had been on Stop the War campaigns, protests against tuition fees, and now the eco-movement, Extinction Rebellion etc. These don't have easily identifiable leaderships to work with like unions do.

At first the reorientation from unions to these movements was an asset to Corbyn. They were young and energetic, skilled at spreading messages on social media, didn't have the old negative baggage that the unions had. Over time though, these caused problems...

First, the antisemitism stuff tends to come from the Stop the War / Free Palestine part of this coalition. It's less dominated by young people and has a lot of aggressive angry activists who like being provocative to raise the profile of the issue. They also live in a social media bubble where commentary that breaches the IHRA guidance on antisemitism is normalised.

Second, the youth part of this coalition was almost exclusively Remain, and lobbied hard for a second referendum and pulled Corbyn reluctantly to that position against his instincts.

Third, their policy focus is more eco-left than traditional class-struggle left, its why why Labour got pushed to the Green New Deal. This isn't necessarily a vote loser for them but they are closer to Greens than traditional Labour.

The challenge for the new leadership is going to come from harnessing and controlling these movements. Although I opposed the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, I think a lot of the stop the war / free Palestine groups are problematic - they contain a lot of people who normalise antisemitism. You can take reasonable policies on these issues without embracing these groups. Corbyn had long history as a figurehead for these groups. The youth vote is also instinctively going to coalesce around the most 'remainer' candidate, as they will want to reorient the party towards a future Rejoin campaign. Keir Starmer will be their natural preference.

Interesting points but a couple of issues have shown the strength of the unions within Labour - the move 2030 to 2050 for carbon zero and the second referendum which was almost entirely a Unite/unions suggestion/requirement.

The problem Labour have is the arrogant youth who all work in safe well paid media jobs: Owen Jones, Ash Sakar, Grace Blakeley who sit on high and look down on the rest of us. They all have a significant presence on social media and spout to the Momentum crowd. You watch them on TV and their pouting arrogance does Labour no favours. They come from the "You must be stupid if you disagree with me" the Blakeley/Campbell spat on 5Live on Friday showed the huge chasm between these two sides of Labour.

Starmer has no chance - it has to be a women and Momentum want Long Bailey, it would great if they had either Jess Phillips or Angela Rayner but they wont. For me Lisa Nandy ticks a lot of boxes but whether she is has the gravitas I don't know. Love to see Laura Pidcock as deputy - she is one argument away from self combustion.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:57 pm  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

I thought it would take longer than one day before the truth comes out. The nurse numbers are now over 10 years and his promise to retain current employment legislation and environmental protections will be removed because what he said in October to get his deal through no longer stands.

He can get through Parliament OK now if he removes commitments on employment legislation and environmental protections but it makes the EU much less likely to offer him an attractive deal, so we'll either be in for extended transitions and much longer period of wrangling or the whole no deal stuff rearing its head again next year.

No deal will be less attractive to Boris now he is secure in power as he will know he has to mop up the consequences. Although he does have a decent majority, it's similar to the one which Gordon Brown inherited in 2007, and that melted away after the financial crisis, so he's not secure from electoral consequences if there's a major economic shock.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 5:12 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

The problem Labour have is the arrogant youth who all work in safe well paid media jobs: Owen Jones, Ash Sakar, Grace Blakeley who sit on high and look down on the rest of us. They all have a significant presence on social media and spout to the Momentum crowd. You watch them on TV and their pouting arrogance does Labour no favours. They come from the "You must be stupid if you disagree with me" the Blakeley/Campbell spat on 5Live on Friday showed the huge chasm between these two sides of Labour.

I agree these types are overexposed and annoying. These types are just commentators, they are not policy thinkers. They haven't got any experience in policy development or delivery. I'm all for young people being involved in campaigning but they need to have some humility that they aren't experts. Owen Jones has taken contradictory positions over time. Ash Sarkar is basically confrontational and immature. Both of those two need to reflect on whether they are putting off more people than they are winning over.

Grace Blakeley has more about her than those two but she thinks she is more intelligent than she really is. I've seen her speak alongside academics and you can see the contrast. The academics are more considered, more reflective and acknowledge what we know and what is uncertain. Blakeley immediately launches in to her view of the world and tells people this is how it is. She wrote that book called Stolen and has had a lot of publicity off the back of it but some academics quickly picked up basic misunderstandings that she has included in her book and that should have been cleared up if she'd peer reviewed and proofed it properly. It's the classic weakness of the young. She's probably got top grades in school and university and been pandered too and told that she's a superstar so she goes out with the confidence that she's right, and blunders in to mistakes. She also doesn't seem to show much self-awareness of when she is wrong.

At that age it's fine to be involved but you should be listening and learning more and lecturing / transmitting less. The problem in the era of social media is that it gives people like that a platform and an adoring audience.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:39 pm  

Does he want a trade deal with the EU because he does not want to include any possibility of an extension beyond the 31/12/2020. I guess he is pinning his hopes on Trump.

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:02 am  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote: I thought it would take longer than one day before the truth comes out. The nurse numbers are now over 10 years and his promise to retain current employment legislation and environmental protections will be removed because what he said in October to get his deal through no longer stands. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 1576502501

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote: I thought it would take longer than one day before the truth comes out. The nurse numbers are now over 10 years and his promise to retain current employment legislation and environmental protections will be removed because what he said in October to get his deal through no longer stands. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 1576502501

Re: Boris Johnson - spinless leader ? : Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:22 pm  

Scarlet Pimpernell wrote:

Does he want a trade deal with the EU because he does not want to include any possibility of an extension beyond the 31/12/2020. I guess he is pinning his hopes on Trump.

He may be, but without a trade deal with the EU, the UK economy will be far worse off than it was before, and any benefits from a deal with the US will be negligible compared to what is lost from access to EU markets. The US are just not in the business of opening up their markets to foreign competitors - their trade deals are very aggressively negotiated in their favour - even before Trump - so a deal with the US will be America First and not to the benefit of the UK.

Boris will know that walking away from the EU for no deal will have only short term political benefit, and he doesn't even need that next year anyway as the next election will be 4 years away. But it will lead to an economic decline that will hit the northern/midlands regions where there is still a manufacturing base that exports to the EU very hard. By 2024 if there has been a decline and higher unemployment, people won't say 'well done Boris for walking away with no deal in 2020', they will be angry at their economic situation.

Also he will need to watch the employment figures. Under Cameron and May we've been at or approaching full employment for a while now, which has mitigated the effects of austerity. If an economic downturn /recession hits following Brexit and a lot of people who previously earned wages are forced in to dealing with the state safety net they will realise just how much it has been reduced and how brutal it has become. It's easy to be supportive of measures to 'tackle scroungers' when you don't think you'll lose your job yourself but in those northern / midlands regions there aren't many jobs around when a major industry starts getting in to closures. If unemployment rises then the reality of dealing with DWP, benefit sanctioning and food banks will reach a lot of people who currently don't think it's an issue for them.