Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:20 am  

What Mintball neglected to mention about China - where stereotypically multi-national companies make things on the back of cheap labour - is that their government is deperately trying to keep "growth" going by printing money. China will almost invetitably go bust within a few short years unless something changes. That will be catastrophic for it's people and probably us as well. The government supports a banking system that lends to a myriad of broke manufacturers and the banking system does not recognise potential bad debts. These were estimated a few years ago as a huge 30% of China's GDP (and one suspects are growing). At some point, probably quite soon, the Chinese credit bubble will burst with catastrophic results.

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:25 pm  

In other news, I also forgot to say that the sky is going to fall in.

Sometime next week.

Probably.

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:34 pm  

Dally wrote:

What Mintball neglected to mention about China - where stereotypically multi-national companies make things on the back of cheap labour - is that their government is deperately trying to keep "growth" going by printing money. China will almost invetitably go bust within a few short years unless something changes. That will be catastrophic for it's people and probably us as well. The government supports a banking system that lends to a myriad of broke manufacturers and the banking system does not recognise potential bad debts. These were estimated a few years ago as a huge 30% of China's GDP (and one suspects are growing). At some point, probably quite soon, the Chinese credit bubble will burst with catastrophic results.

Have you mentioned this to Wen Jiabao? I think he should be told.

Who lent them the money? I personally wouldn't fancy going over there stamping my feet and demanding repayments.

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 2:21 pm  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

Have you mentioned this to Wen Jiabao? I think he should be told.

Who lent them the money? I personally wouldn't fancy going over there stamping my feet and demanding repayments.

The Chinese. They apprarently managed to get a report by Ernsy & Yound retracted a while back.

The momement their high growth rate stalls will probably be the moment the chickens come home to roost (to keep with Mintball's considered line of thought).

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 5:14 pm  

Dally is not far off about China actually. I read a report in a Chinese magazine last time I was there (not in Chinese obviously). The Chinese government fuels growth to a large degree by borrowing from it's own citizens. They rely heavily on ordinary Chinese saving to supply money. If they stop saving then there are going to be consequences. Also, at some point they are going to have to engage with the rest of the world over patents, intellectual property and float their currency. The Yuan would be worth absolutely f*** all if it was traded. My hotel for next week is rediculously expensive compared to my last trip (in fact it's expensive full stop).
I don't imagine catastrophe there because if their economy stops growing you don't get people complaining that the bins don't get collected anymore and as they spent 5 times more on the Olympics than they do on healthcare a year nobody's going to notice longer queues at hospitals.

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 5:18 pm  

Dally wrote:

The Chinese. They apprarently managed to get a report by Ernsy & Yound retracted a while back.

The momement their high growth rate stalls will probably be the moment the chickens come home to roost (to keep with Mintball's considered line of thought).

yet another piece of useless info from me

according to Piers Moron who was doing tv a report from China, he went to Shanghai where there are apparently 118,000 millionaires ! ( that's even more than Castleford !)

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 5:51 pm  

DHM wrote:

Dally is not far off about China actually. I read a report in a Chinese magazine last time I was there (not in Chinese obviously). The Chinese government fuels growth to a large degree by borrowing from it's own citizens. They rely heavily on ordinary Chinese saving to supply money. If they stop saving then there are going to be consequences. Also, at some point they are going to have to engage with the rest of the world over patents, intellectual property and float their currency. The Yuan would be worth absolutely f*** all if it was traded. My hotel for next week is rediculously expensive compared to my last trip (in fact it's expensive full stop).
I don't imagine catastrophe there because if their economy stops growing you don't get people complaining that the bins don't get collected anymore and as they spent 5 times more on the Olympics than they do on healthcare a year nobody's going to notice longer queues at hospitals.

The catastrophe will come from probable the collapse of their banking and economic system. There will be untold hardship - probably mass starvation in such a generally poor country. The shock waves would doubtless reverberate around the world, with conflict likely.

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 6:12 pm  

What conflict? Who is mad enough to attack China? Rupert Murdoch?

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 7:51 pm  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

What conflict? Who is mad enough to attack China? Rupert Murdoch?

The theory being, a desperate Chinese government with strife at home would try to save itself by striking out.

Re: Brazil overtakes the UK !!! : Thu Mar 08, 2012 9:35 pm  

Razor blades anyone?