Re: More Tory Lies : Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:44 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote: I have no wish to trawl through his twitter feed You should, it's not politically biased, it picks everyone apart, and beyond the GE stuff there are some interesting stats. I know the left don't really care about balancing the numbers, but still... https://twitter.com/pjtheeconomist?lang=en and as you say, the size of the "hit" and it's longevity are unknown. However, when the most ardent "leavers" are "happy" to now accept there will be a hit, it doesn't look great in the short and medium term and after that, who the hell knows -Trump and Boris may both become trigger happy in response to being "tested" by one of our many world enemies. However, with stagnant growth and an agreed hit to come, it must all seem really worthwhile. Chuck in a level of borrowing that the Tories have previously ridiculed the opposition over and we have all of the ingredients for something rather unpleasant and with legitimatised racism and xenophobia (from the top down), the UK (or what's left of it) should be a joy to live in. Yep, for the squillionth time, it's all about the long term. Extricating ourselves from the federalist long-term goals and ideology of the EU will pay off in the long term. We were supposed to be in economic armageddon simply for voting out. Didn't happen. I won't deny there is a rollercoaster ahead but it will pass.

wrencat1873 wrote: I have no wish to trawl through his twitter feed You should, it's not politically biased, it picks everyone apart, and beyond the GE stuff there are some interesting stats. I know the left don't really care about balancing the numbers, but still... https://twitter.com/pjtheeconomist?lang=en and as you say, the size of the "hit" and it's longevity are unknown. However, when the most ardent "leavers" are "happy" to now accept there will be a hit, it doesn't look great in the short and medium term and after that, who the hell knows -Trump and Boris may both become trigger happy in response to being "tested" by one of our many world enemies. However, with stagnant growth and an agreed hit to come, it must all seem really worthwhile. Chuck in a level of borrowing that the Tories have previously ridiculed the opposition over and we have all of the ingredients for something rather unpleasant and with legitimatised racism and xenophobia (from the top down), the UK (or what's left of it) should be a joy to live in. Yep, for the squillionth time, it's all about the long term. Extricating ourselves from the federalist long-term goals and ideology of the EU will pay off in the long term. We were supposed to be in economic armageddon simply for voting out. Didn't happen. I won't deny there is a rollercoaster ahead but it will pass.

Re: More Tory Lies : Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:53 pm  

Seventies red wrote: So You blame Thatcher for selling off the housing stock and not releasing funds for building new one and yet Labour were in power for 13 year 1997 to 2010 and their record was far worse. Here's a few facts for you to digest..... Margaret Thatcher's government had built more council flats and houses in a single year than New Labour's managed in its entire period in office. The official data shows that the Blair and Brown governments built 7,870 council houses (local authority tenure) over the course of 13 years. (If we don't include 2010 - the year when David Cameron became PM - this number drops to 6,510 contrast this figure with Thatcher's government, which never built fewer than 17,710 homes in a year and you can see the significant difference. Between 1997 and 2010, of the 2.61 million homes constructed, only 0.3% were local authority tenure. Mrs Thatcher's government supervised the building of a similar number of houses (2.63 million), but 18.9% were LA or 'council' properties. To look at it another way, New Labour built an average of 562 council houses per year. And Mrs Thatcher's Conservatives? 41,343. That said, it's also true that the number of council houses under construction declined steadily during Mrs Thatcher's era.. Jesus Christ you're about as hard to outwit as IR35. If you'd included a full link with context I suppose it wouldn't have helped your "case" though - here's the accompanying graph - notice when it declines and flatlines: And the link, which concludes, "Between 1997 and 2010, some 350,000 housing association dwellings were built. If we look at both housing association homes and council houses, Labour built more affordable properties in 2009 than the Conservatives did in each year between 1987 and 1990." https://fullfact.org/economy/who-built- ... ew-labour/

Seventies red wrote: So You blame Thatcher for selling off the housing stock and not releasing funds for building new one and yet Labour were in power for 13 year 1997 to 2010 and their record was far worse. Here's a few facts for you to digest..... Margaret Thatcher's government had built more council flats and houses in a single year than New Labour's managed in its entire period in office. The official data shows that the Blair and Brown governments built 7,870 council houses (local authority tenure) over the course of 13 years. (If we don't include 2010 - the year when David Cameron became PM - this number drops to 6,510 contrast this figure with Thatcher's government, which never built fewer than 17,710 homes in a year and you can see the significant difference. Between 1997 and 2010, of the 2.61 million homes constructed, only 0.3% were local authority tenure. Mrs Thatcher's government supervised the building of a similar number of houses (2.63 million), but 18.9% were LA or 'council' properties. To look at it another way, New Labour built an average of 562 council houses per year. And Mrs Thatcher's Conservatives? 41,343. That said, it's also true that the number of council houses under construction declined steadily during Mrs Thatcher's era.. Jesus Christ you're about as hard to outwit as IR35. If you'd included a full link with context I suppose it wouldn't have helped your "case" though - here's the accompanying graph - notice when it declines and flatlines: And the link, which concludes, "Between 1997 and 2010, some 350,000 housing association dwellings were built. If we look at both housing association homes and council houses, Labour built more affordable properties in 2009 than the Conservatives did in each year between 1987 and 1990." https://fullfact.org/economy/who-built- ... ew-labour/

Re: More Tory Lies : Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:00 pm  

Cronus wrote:

We were supposed to be in economic armageddon simply for voting out. Didn't happen. I won't deny there is a rollercoaster ahead but it will pass.

How many billions has it cost in propping up the economy to avoid us going into a recession? The £70bn programme of quantitative easing was key. Money well spent to mitigate us having just shot ourselves in the face, but we still dropped from the top to the bottom of the international economic growth charts - at a time the world was booming, we were disembowelling the things which, for better or worse, had become fundamentals in our economy.

Re: More Tory Lies : Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:31 pm  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

How many billions has it cost in propping up the economy to avoid us going into a recession? The £70bn programme of quantitative easing was key. Money well spent to mitigate us having just shot ourselves in the face, but we still dropped from the top to the bottom of the international economic growth charts - at a time the world was booming, we were disembowelling the things which, for better or worse, had become fundamentals in our economy.

Isn't it fortunate we're not under the control of the European Central Bank, and can manage our fiscal and monetary policy effectively?

Anyway, the FT reckons consumer spending is what made the most impact: "there is no doubt the resilience of consumers is the biggest reason for the UK economy exceeding expectations", not QE, which of course helped alongside interest rates cuts.

I'm well aware of and have always expected economic risk with Brexi...oh I can't be arrised, I've repeated it so many times.

Re: More Tory Lies : Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:31 pm  

Cronus wrote:

Isn't it fortunate we're not under the control of the European Central Bank, and can manage our fiscal and monetary policy effectively?

Anyway, the FT reckons consumer spending is what made the most impact: "there is no doubt the resilience of consumers is the biggest reason for the UK economy exceeding expectations", not QE, which of course helped alongside interest rates cuts.

I'm well aware of and have always expected economic risk with Brexi...oh I can't be arrised, I've repeated it so many times.

Do you think that the UK ecconomy is "exceeding expectations" 1.4% over the last 12 months and although there is a loose BoE target of 2-4% for next year, this looks massively optimistic.
The current "buoyancy" in the ecconomy is all due to desperately low interest rates, ironically, something which isn't usually compatible with a strong ecconomy.
Most sensible people take risk from a position of strength when "you can afford to lose" or from a position of desperation when you have" nothing to lose". I wonder which one of these best describes the position of the UK when taking such a risky venture.

[Mild Rover]

Re: More Tory Lies : Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:05 am  

Cronus wrote:

Isn't it fortunate we're not under the control of the European Central Bank, and can manage our fiscal and monetary policy effectively?

Is your point here that the ECB isn’t effective or that it is ‘them’ rather than ‘us’?

If the latter, I think this is where a lot of the disagreement and mutual incomprehension comes from. People define themselves, and by extension ‘us’ in all sorts of different ways. Culture, language, geography, ethnicity, beliefs, preferences, shared interests. To me, the EU is less alien and other than, for example and setting the bar very low, Johnson, Javid, Gove, Raab, Patel, Truss and Rees-Mogg.

Now, you might say that ‘we’ could at least vote them out. But none of my ‘us’ are voting for them in the first place anyway. We’re outnumbered, and that is how democracy works, so fair enough. But it isn’t fortunate for my ‘us’, it is in fact a poop state of affairs.

Re: More Tory Lies : Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:31 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Do you think that the UK ecconomy is "exceeding expectations" 1.4% over the last 12 months and although there is a loose BoE target of 2-4% for next year, this looks massively optimistic.
The current "buoyancy" in the ecconomy is all due to desperately low interest rates, ironically, something which isn't usually compatible with a strong ecconomy.
Most sensible people take risk from a position of strength when "you can afford to lose" or from a position of desperation when you have" nothing to lose". I wonder which one of these best describes the position of the UK when taking such a risky venture.

None of which would mean anything if people weren't spending. We've had very low interest rates since 2008 while the economy has been on quite a rollercoaster (one might question the impact they actually have, although I was grateful for REALLY low mortgage payments) and yes of course QE helped. Meanwhile, spending has increased year on year despite the forecasts of doom. And the position, as you know, was "get out of the EU".

Is it performing ahead of expectations? Depends what your expectations are. I'm honest in that I don't expect much around Brexit and we'll most likely see a dip, but I also expect long-term growth to recover and continue, much as it did following the 2008 recession.

Consumer Spending in the UK (millions)

Re: More Tory Lies : Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:38 am  

Cronus wrote:

None of which would mean anything if people weren't spending. We've had very low interest rates since 2008 while the economy has been on quite a rollercoaster (one might question the impact they actually have, although I was grateful for REALLY low mortgage payments) and yes of course QE helped. Meanwhile, spending has increased year on year despite the forecasts of doom. And the position, as you know, was "get out of the EU".

Is it performing ahead of expectations? Depends what your expectations are. I'm honest in that I don't expect much around Brexit and we'll most likely see a dip, but I also expect long-term growth to recover and continue, much as it did following the 2008 recession.

Consumer Spending in the UK (millions)

Nice graph but 1.4% actual growth over the last 12 months really is no great shakes and over the last 6 months, just 0.1%, with a "hit" to come.
The economy is gasping for air, absolutely no doubt and ironically, without the influx of people from outside the UK, we would already have an economy in reverse.
I'll lend you my crystal ball if you like ?

Re: More Tory Lies : Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:01 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Nice graph but 1.4% actual growth over the last 12 months really is no great shakes and over the last 6 months, just 0.1%, with a "hit" to come.
The economy is gasping for air, absolutely no doubt and ironically, without the influx of people from outside the UK, we would already have an economy in reverse.
I'll lend you my crystal ball if you like ?

"only the immigrants can save us"

Please, spare me.

Re: More Tory Lies : Sat Nov 23, 2019 12:10 pm  

Cronus wrote:

:roll: "only the immigrants can save us"

Please, spare me.

You scoff but, if you take out the spend of those "millions" of immigrants, we would be under the line.
My point being, not so much the effect on the economy of immigrants but, more to do with the extremely fragile growth that we have and having just about climbed out of the deepest recession since the war, "some" people think it's a good idea to have another try

It's economic lunacy and looking behind the donors for the leave campaign, getting out of The EU , for them, has more to do with the tightening of some of the rules about "hiding" cash, which will become somewhat more difficult under the new EU rules, something that the UK should be applauding and following, rather than helping some less scrupulous businessmen.