Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:25 am  

DaveO wrote:

It rarely has been in the past. I think it is only one, possibly two past Labour victories have relied on the Scottish MP's.

Three actually 1964, 1974 & 2010

[DaveO]

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:33 am  

Him wrote:

Isn't it fairly simple in the case of a Yes vote? There's a 2015 UK General Election as normal. Then whenever Scotland actually becomes independent the Scottish MP's no longer are MP's as they have no constituency. So they are removed from a Parliament and you're left with what remains.

Might be tricky if it's a Labour government elected in 2015 who's majority is reliant on Scottish MP's but the parliament can still be dissolved and another election called if necessary.

I would have thought so. In any case I think the timetable for independence occurring is ludicrously optimistic in my opinion at around 18 months so it would be quite feasible for that to go out to four or five years. So a UK election could be called to coincide with the break up of the UK.

It would also be interesting to see what happens with constituencies in England, Wales and NI. The Tories had this bonkers idea to make them 100K voters in size based on who was registered to vote, not the population which would have meant some geographically huge constituencies. I think there will be calls for a redrawing of boundaries rather than just the rest of the UK going with the simple idea of just ditching the Scottish MP's.

[DaveO]

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:34 am  

Lord Elpers wrote:

Three actually 1964, 1974 & 2010

2010? Labour didn't win in 2010!

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:58 am  

DaveO wrote:

2010? Labour didn't win in 2010!

True of course but in 2010 Cameron's Tories would have had an overall majority so the election results would have been different without Scottish seats which shows the importance if Labour were to lose these.

Even with a win for the Union it is most likely that the give aways promised in the DevoMax2 will bring an unstoppable demand for change in the rest of the UK with an increasing possibility of an English Parliament with the West Lothian question finally being resolved.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:07 pm  

LeagueDweeb wrote: We have a fixed term Parliament. That cannot be changed. What is perfectly clear now about the whole Scottish devolution vote is that none of the political party's seem to have considered what may happen if the Scots vote Yes, hence the panic emanating from Westminster last week with not so carefully leaked reports that "senior" MPs were "investigating" how the 2015 general election could be postponed until Scotland is totally devolved - they were still working on Salmonds target of 2016 - this is but one of many press reports from last week that you may have missed http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes.

LeagueDweeb wrote: We have a fixed term Parliament. That cannot be changed. What is perfectly clear now about the whole Scottish devolution vote is that none of the political party's seem to have considered what may happen if the Scots vote Yes, hence the panic emanating from Westminster last week with not so carefully leaked reports that "senior" MPs were "investigating" how the 2015 general election could be postponed until Scotland is totally devolved - they were still working on Salmonds target of 2016 - this is but one of many press reports from last week that you may have missed http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:55 pm  

JerryChicken wrote: What is perfectly clear now about the whole Scottish devolution vote is that none of the political party's seem to have considered what may happen if the Scots vote Yes, hence the panic emanating from Westminster last week with not so carefully leaked reports that "senior" MPs were "investigating" how the 2015 general election could be postponed until Scotland is totally devolved - they were still working on Salmonds target of 2016 - this is but one of many press reports from last week that you may have missed http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes. The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.

JerryChicken wrote: What is perfectly clear now about the whole Scottish devolution vote is that none of the political party's seem to have considered what may happen if the Scots vote Yes, hence the panic emanating from Westminster last week with not so carefully leaked reports that "senior" MPs were "investigating" how the 2015 general election could be postponed until Scotland is totally devolved - they were still working on Salmonds target of 2016 - this is but one of many press reports from last week that you may have missed http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes. The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:56 pm  

cod'ead wrote:

Yes it can

By what means?

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:05 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

True of course but in 2010 Cameron's Tories would have had an overall majority so the election results would have been different without Scottish seats which shows the importance if Labour were to lose these.

Even with a win for the Union it is most likely that the give aways promised in the DevoMax2 will bring an unstoppable demand for change in the rest of the UK with an increasing possibility of an English Parliament with the West Lothian question finally being resolved.

All future elections without Scottish MP's would be much closer. The number of MP's needed for a majority would rop from 326 to 296. A drop of 30, with Labour having 40 in Scotland.

If the Scots were to go, the Welsh might well look to follow suit.

Even with a No vote or greater devolution, the West Lothian question will likely remain unanswered. Were Labour to win in 2015, it would be completely ignored.

If the Tories were to win, their support for the Union would make it equally unlikely anything would be done.
The question is even more fertile ground for UKIP, who I am sure will exploit it in the lead up to May 2015

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:05 pm  

JerryChicken wrote:

...
However, as with all things in this poll, nothing is planned, nothing is formalised, nothing has been considered, it looks like it could be the biggest cock-up in civil service history if they vote Yes.

I wouldn't worry, they proved in Iraq that they can quickly implement a full national plan, in no time at all, to universal acclaim.

As ever though, the bookies tell you what you need to know, the No vote is miles odds-on now, and shortening so the masterplan isn't required.

Re: Scottish Referendum : Thu Sep 18, 2014 2:20 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

The difference in this referendum is that each vote counts equally.

May 2010 general election in Scotland

Conservatives - 412,855 votes = 1 seat
Lib Dems - 465,471 votes = 11 seats
SNP - 491,386 votes = 6 seats
Labour -1,035,528 votes = 41 seats

Hardly fair but there you go. So Salmond's SNP only represents about half of those that voted for the present government yet he continues to go on about independence guaranteeing a change in direction.

If this referendum had only included the above voters then the NOs would have won hands down. However this time there are another 1.9 million who have registered to vote including many school kids aged 16 and over and many adults who are not political and could be voting just emotionally with the heart not the head which is why this could be on a knife edge. Because the pollsters have no similar history to compare they are as much in the dark about the result as the rest of us.

That 2010 General election vote doesn't mirror the 2011 Scottish vote, so it tells us nothing.

What it does tell us is why Labour didn't want boundary changes so that constituencies had an equal number of voters.