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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"if interest rates rise will investors not buy in to the pound?'"
They will buy sterling denominated assets that pay higher interest rates, so the demand for the pound will go up because they need to convert their currency in to pounds to buy them, and the exchange rate of the pound will appreciate.
Double edged sword really. Will harm UK exports because our goods will be more competitive, but it will bear down on inflation in the UK because anything that requires imported goods as part of the production process will become cheaper.
Danger is imports will also start becoming comparatively cheaper than domestic produced goods so even in the home market we could lose market share to imports that are bought more easily with a stronger pound. |
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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"They will buy sterling denominated assets that pay higher interest rates, so the demand for the pound will go up because they need to convert their currency in to pounds to buy them, and the exchange rate of the pound will appreciate.
Double edged sword really. Will harm UK exports because our goods will be more competitive, but it will bear down on inflation in the UK because anything that requires imported goods as part of the production process will become cheaper.
Danger is imports will also start becoming comparatively cheaper than domestic produced goods so even in the home market we could lose market share to imports that are bought more easily with a stronger pound.'"
As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods? |
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| Quote Mintball="Mintball"Planet Earth.
Carry on inventing things, sunshine, because I have never suggested this anywhere. You're a fantasist, who needs your fantasies in order to provide some sort of 'evidence' for your claims.
Now if you want to stop looking like an idiot, feel free – and answer questions and provide real, meaningful evidence to support your claims.
Otherwise, you're just another little troll with nit an ounce.
Actually I suspect not: I think you're probably just a greedy, selfish individual who is trying to excuse not having an ounce of morality in their body.'"
Nobody is inventing anything just exposing you for what you are - I am not the one looking an idiot here - it is you.
You bring "Spirit Level" as fact - it isn't its a theory - do you actually know the difference?
You don't anything about me yet you feel it is OK to pronounce on my personality - yet you cry wolf when somebody does this to you?
You talk about answering questions - you never answer any, you spout nonsense - you claimed I said nobody should have a pay rise because I haven't had one - I asked you to show me where I said that, I am still waiting?
You keep raising the point about care workers and expenses. What I said was most firms would pay out of pocket expenses through a defined expenses policy, at the firm I work at somebody buys milk and coffee and they claim it back through the expenses process - you turned that into all care workers have expenses accounts!!
This is what you do you produce theory as fact, you read what you want things to say not what they actually say, you bring things back from months ago but somehow find it distasteful when the tables are turned, you are a probably a hypocritical bully who like all bullies can't take it when the tables are turned. |
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| In defence of la Mint,
[url=http://s37.photobucket.com/user/BillytheRhino/media/97f6aaf2-debc-44f3-a060-63bbf60e4999.jpg.html  [/url I've found since putting up this photo in the front window, we have never been burgled!
Credit where it's due! |
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Which reminds me, what happened to Minty's better half?
They were in a competition at one time to be the first to a million posts.
Where be you tb?
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Good to see George Osborne named Briton of the Year by the Times.
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| Quote Ajw71="Ajw71"Good to see George Osborne named Briton of the Year by the Times.'"
Personally, I'd have dear old Godfrey Bloom before George Osborne, who I think has been extremely fortunate with his growth policies.
That said, if the predictions by the leading economist Dr Ros Altmann are anywhere near the mark, with [i "growth rising by 5 per cent, real earnings increasing by nearly 3 per cent, inflation holding at about 2 per cent, and employment at its highest since records began, falling towards – or even below – the 7 per cent level by the end of 2014".[/i Then I'm afraid there will be much hand wringing by the usual suspects on here, and the Tories will be a shoe in come Election Time.
With Churchill being acknowledged as the Greatest Briton of All Time, I think we can look forward with confidence that the natural order of things has been restored after the miss spent years of Blair's Britain. |
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| Quote rumpelstiltskin="rumpelstiltskin"
That said, if the predictions by the leading economist Dr Ros Altmann are anywhere near the mark, with [i "growth rising by 5 per cent, real earnings increasing by nearly 3 per cent, inflation holding at about 2 per cent, and employment at its highest since records began, falling towards – or even below – the 7 per cent level by the end of 2014".[/i Then I'm afraid there will be much hand wringing by the usual suspects on here, and the Tories will be a shoe in come Election Time.
'"
Those things could well happen in a consumer-spending generated boom year in 2014 coupled with tax rebates and election bribes.
It not what the Tories were hoping for of course as it goes against everything that austerity stands for and there will be a price to pay in 2016, but still... |
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| Quote Ajw71="Ajw71"Good to see George Osborne named Briton of the Year by the Times.'"
Have you read the reasoning behind their decision.
Talk about the job description being written for the candidate |
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| Quote Ajw71="Ajw71"Good to see George Osborne named Briton of the Year by the Times.'"
Really why do think that - if he is the Briton of the year we should be very worried about our performance as a nation.
Man is an incompetent!! |
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Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods?'"
There was an article in the Economist early this year about this: www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... dium-sized
It suggested that when the pound falls, its good news for small firm exporters that tend to manufacture at home and sell abroad, but had less effect on large firm exporters that are likely to have some parts of their operations based overseas close to their customers, so when the pound falls their costs in overseas operations rise.
So when the pound rises it should be the opposite effect: the small firms that manufacture at home will find it harder to export, but the large firm exporters will not be affected as much.
Basically if you are a global firm you are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations for good or bad.
The danger I see of a rising pound is what will happen to our trade balance. The most recent figures said we have our biggest trade deficit since 1989. A year or so ago the Coalition were always talking about "rebalancing the economy": from imports to exports, from London to the regions, from services to manufacturing, from consumption and government spending to investment etc but this is one thing that is definitely not happening in terms of the recent good news on growth. We are not seeing those rebalancing effects in fact on some of those measures we are becoming more unbalanced.
If the pound rises then its good news for families struggling with flatlining wages and the cost of living but the flipside is the reason its good news is because it means imported goods become cheaper (hence it bearing down on inflation), this means our imports are likely to rise and our trade balance could get even worse. Given that a trade deficit is always financed by accruing debt to the rest of the world, this is not a healthy situation. |
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Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods?'"
There was an article in the Economist early this year about this: www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... dium-sized
It suggested that when the pound falls, its good news for small firm exporters that tend to manufacture at home and sell abroad, but had less effect on large firm exporters that are likely to have some parts of their operations based overseas close to their customers, so when the pound falls their costs in overseas operations rise.
So when the pound rises it should be the opposite effect: the small firms that manufacture at home will find it harder to export, but the large firm exporters will not be affected as much.
Basically if you are a global firm you are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations for good or bad.
The danger I see of a rising pound is what will happen to our trade balance. The most recent figures said we have our biggest trade deficit since 1989. A year or so ago the Coalition were always talking about "rebalancing the economy": from imports to exports, from London to the regions, from services to manufacturing, from consumption and government spending to investment etc but this is one thing that is definitely not happening in terms of the recent good news on growth. We are not seeing those rebalancing effects in fact on some of those measures we are becoming more unbalanced.
If the pound rises then its good news for families struggling with flatlining wages and the cost of living but the flipside is the reason its good news is because it means imported goods become cheaper (hence it bearing down on inflation), this means our imports are likely to rise and our trade balance could get even worse. Given that a trade deficit is always financed by accruing debt to the rest of the world, this is not a healthy situation. | |
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| Quote General Zod.="General Zod."The so called economists of the mainstream media are thick - just like you..'"
Nice formation of an argument!
Quote General Zod.="General Zod.""George Osborne likes to say that the UK government’s cost of borrowing (the yield on gilts – government IOUs) is low because investors are impressed with his running of the economy.
This is complete and utter tripe.
Gilt yields are low because the Bank of England now owns about a third of the entire market. If the Bank was to try to even think of offloading these bonds, or even to stop buying gilts, we’d soon see how impressed investors are with Osborne’s governance.
In short, the UK is a ‘zombie’ economy. From top to bottom, it’s being kept on life support by low interest rates".
Source: John Stepek, Money Week
In short:-
As soon as interest rates go up we are finished.
As soon as foreign investors move away from the pound we are finished.
This is only a matter of time.'"
This is the same doommonger John Stepek whose non main stream economic advice at the start of 2013 was to Buy Gold. This same magazine this year stated 2013 was "terrible for gold" Gold dropped 431 points (25.69% in value)
I bet you also believe that other sad leftie economist Danny 'I'm always wrong' Blanchflower! |
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| Quote Him="Him"Not at all, I hadn't actually noticed your post, apologies.:'"
Apology accepted
Quote Him="Him"It certainly wasn't a deliberate error to mislead, the graphs on that site are, however, a little misleading themselves. For instance if you use the same data ie GDP per capita PPP but for 2010 to 2013 you will see it shows the higher figure I quoted as being for a period including 2010 and into 2011, but not to the end of 2011.
If I was incorrect, I apologise and withdraw the comment.:'"
Ok I accept you didn't intend to mislead. The graph shows end of year figures, which is normal. You quoted the end of 2011. Given that the coalition had enjoyed 2 to 3 quarters of growth in 2010 since the election this would have made the increases to date even greater than using the end of 2010 figures.
As you were clearly incorrect and I also thank you your apology for this too. So I can repeat what you said at the time but with the opposite conclusion "thank you for proving the GDP per capita figures have risen since 2010"
Can we also agree that when you state something in future as a fact, or as you prefer to state "FACT", then we should all take it with a large pinch of salt 
Quote Him="Him"Incidentally, I notice the Andrew Mitchell thread hasn't been touched recently...
 '" |
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Inflation falls further.
Milliband will have to find a new sound bite soon. This 'cost of living crisis' myth won't wash much longer.
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| Quote Ajw71="Ajw71"Inflation falls further.
Milliband will have to find a new sound bite soon. This 'cost of living crisis' myth won't wash much longer.'"
So people are not suffering? People are not struggling? People hsve suddenly found that they really can make ends meet?
Must try harder, little troll. |
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| Quote Mintball="Mintball"So people are not suffering? People are not struggling? People hsve suddenly found that they really can make ends meet?
Must try harder, little troll.'"
and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question) |
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| Quote Standee="Standee"and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question)'"
Have a read of this:
[urlhttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/20/1393672/the-real-rate-of-british-inflation/[/url
What they are arguing is that inflation on essentials is much worse than the headline rate and also that as wage inflation has consistently been lower than this "real" rate of inflation we all feel poorer regrdless of what the inflation rate is suposed to be.
It certainly mirrors my perception of what things in the weekly shop cost. I am no statistician but for example I am sure if some dramatic drop in the cost of petrol means the headline rate drops anyone who doesn't drive will stick two fingers up at any rejoicing at the new low rate they themselves are not enjoying.
Tablet computers are also in the basket of goods used to compile the official headline inflation rate. We buy one of those on a weekly basis don't we!
Worse though for the overall picture is that wages have not kept pace with prices even if you ignore the essentials index. So that alone will make people feel worse off especially as they get naff all on interests on savings.
One thing missing from the essential index and (I think, though I could be wrong) the headline rate is rent. Add in the effect of loss of child benefit for some and the reduction in other benefits and you get the picture.
Here in Chester if the council have their way I will from Sept 2015 face a £1200 a year charge for transport of my Austisic son to school.
That will make my personal inflation rate much higher than other people with the same income won't it. |
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| Quote Lord Elpers="Lord Elpers"Apology accepted
Ok I accept you didn't intend to mislead. The graph shows end of year figures, which is normal. You quoted the end of 2011. Given that the coalition had enjoyed 2 to 3 quarters of growth in 2010 since the election this would have made the increases to date even greater than using the end of 2010 figures.
As you were clearly incorrect and I also thank you your apology for this too. So I can repeat what you said at the time but with the opposite conclusion "thank you for proving the GDP per capita figures have risen since 2010"
Can we also agree that when you state something in future as a fact, or as you prefer to state "FACT", then we should all take it with a large pinch of salt
'"
Actually most figures aren't end of year, they're often quarterly or partial years. Some are then averaged out to be used as yearly figures.
I also have never used the term "FACT". Not sure who you're confusing me with there. I'll happily admit I got that one wrong, I looked at the graph for those years and going by that you can see why I posted what I did. Unfortunately for me the graph was incorrectly labelled. But as it was only 1 point in a larger post basically about how it's the economy hasn't recovered yet and any recovery is down to the economy itself not government fiscal policy, it changes very little really.
As for the Mitchell thread, well nice bluster on there but you've steered well clear of the actual issue on it. Again, I wonder why |
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| Quote Him="Him"Actually most figures aren't end of year, they're often quarterly or partial years. Some are then averaged out to be used as yearly figures. '"
Well this graph was obviously a yearly one and you chose to quote the 2011 figures and stated it was the 2010 figure. Your apology is beginning to look a bit weaselly. You ability to read graphs is matched by your ability to see invisible shocked members of the public on CCTV film!
Quote Him="Him"I also have never used the term "FACT". Not sure who you're confusing me with there. I'll happily admit I got that one wrong, '"
Quote Him="Him"Or of course I could always revert to the right-wingers tactic of simply making things up? Maybe if I do that and then put the word "FACT" next to it? Or some other word? If I do that often enough I could even convince myself it might be true.'"
You have a short memory. Was this your pre-warning of this tactic? Pass the salt I need a big pinch again.
Quote Him="Him"I looked at the graph for those years and going by that you can see why I posted what I did. Unfortunately for me the graph was incorrectly labelled. But as it was only 1 point in a larger post basically about how it's the economy hasn't recovered yet and any recovery is down to the economy itself not government fiscal policy, it changes very little really. '"
Not so - you made a big point that the GDP PPP had fallen since the coalition came to office. So what it changes is the exact opposite of what you claimed. Obviously not of great concern to you. Is this what you keep referring to as "Guff"
Quote Him="Him"As for the Mitchell thread, well nice bluster on there but you've steered well clear of the actual issue on it. Again, I wonder why
'"
Why do you keep posting Mitchell stuff on this thread? Perhaps you might like to post, on the right thread, what in your opinion are the "actual issues" or is this another "FACT" -- get the salt ready. |
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| Quote Lord Elpers="Lord Elpers"Well this graph was obviously a yearly one and you chose to quote the 2011 figures and stated it was the 2010 figure. Your apology is beginning to look a bit weaselly. You ability to read graphs is matched by your ability to see invisible shocked members of the public on CCTV film! '"
Was it? Obviously? Not the graph I looked at. It didn't show a yearly figure. It was apparently wrongly labelled. But I've accepted that point already. As I said it makes little difference to the overall picture for most people, especially if you start looking at regional variances.
Quote Lord Elpers="Lord Elpers"You have a short memory. Was this your pre-warning of this tactic? Pass the salt I need a big pinch again. '"
 This should be a dictionary definition of grasping at straws!
Quote Lord Elpers="Lord Elpers"Not so - you made a big point that the GDP PPP had fallen since the coalition came to office. So what it changes is the exact opposite of what you claimed. Obviously not of great concern to you. Is this what you keep referring to as "Guff" '"
Did I? Where is this big point that I made? I believe it was as part of a larger post. You only chose to pick up on one stat within that post and ignored the others. Did you think they were irrelevant? You know, like what Andrew Mitchell said is irrelevant in a discussion about what Andrew Mitchell said?
Quote Lord Elpers="Lord Elpers"Why do you keep posting Mitchell stuff on this thread? Perhaps you might like to post, on the right thread, what in your opinion are the "actual issues" or is this another "FACT" -- get the salt ready.'"
Because you're hilarious that's why 
You can bluster and misdirect all you want, you've been shown up on the Mitchell thread through trying to change the whole point of the debate, the same way you have here. No doubt there will be further attempted misdirection and bluster in your next post. Though quite how salt and using the word "FACT" in capital letters made it into the debate I really don't know. |
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The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....
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Laudable ...
but small increases in a small amount of money is a very small amount of money.
Edit:
This is a proposed increase to seven pounds from six pounds thirty one pence.
That will be somewhere near the 11% pay rise the MPs are going to get.
So the MPs can claim low paid workers are getting the SAME pay rise.
lol
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| Quote Ajw71="Ajw71"The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....'"
Just as I predicted before xmas, and just as I predicted before xmas in the same speech he also kicked a live shell in Vince Cables trench saying that he personally thought there should be an above inflation increase to the minimum wage but of course it wasn't up to the chancellor to suggest that, it was the business secretary who should push it through, he also slipped in a couple of references to "the great recession" and on one of those mentioned that it was Labours "great recession", he's lining up his soundbites early.
Just a little over twelve months from now they will all be clearing their desks ready for the rush back to the constituency's, Osbourne has twelve months to dangle some carrots, get his catchphrases correct, polish up the propaganda, expect a lot more of the same starting right now.
Personally I think they will convince enough people to get a second term on their own. |
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| Quote Ajw71="Ajw71"The horrible George Osborne who is generally a horrible man who likes to attack the poor and most vulnerable in society has said today he wants an above inflation rise to the minimum wage.
Cost of Living Crisis Myth.....'"
It is such a myth Osborne has had to suggest he'd like to see a rise in the minimum wage. He is not setting the agenda he is reacting too it.
It is also not up to him anyway. The level is set by the low pay commission set up by Labour deliberately to remove the decision from politicians so they couldn't give it a nice rise just before a general election.
In other words however much it goes up by won't be down to what Osborne says he thinks it should be.
However much it goes up by this will be before, if re-elected, he cuts £12bn from the social secuity budget which will land on the same working poor who are paid the minimum wage as he has ring fenced just about everyone else in receipt of money from the social security budget from the cuts (such as pensioners).
Anyone who falls for this is thick.
Also of note is the day before Osborne came out with this he, his party and the Lib Dems voted against a Labour motion to ensure the enforcement of the minimum wage, [urestore its value[/u and encourage (not force) employers to work towards the living wage. That was defeated by a majority of 70.
A government amendment, in the name of the Prime Minister, noted that the minimum wage has increased each year since 2010. It was approved by a majority of 70.
In other words one day there is no need to increase it to restore its value and the day after a 10% rise is in order.
Clearly, Osborne is a hypocrite. |
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| Quote DaveO="DaveO".
It is also not up to him anyway. The level is set by the low pay commission set up by Labour deliberately to remove the decision from politicians so they couldn't give it a nice rise just before a general election.'"
Excellent, so the reason that people are earning below living wage and therefore struggling to make ends meet is down to the Labour party. That's up there with the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Vote Labour, screw the poor. |
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This should be a dictionary definition of grasping at straws! 
