Durham Giant wrote:
This is nothing about Europe. It is about politics to win the next election.
It cuts the UKIP off at the knees.
It gives the Tories the chance to appeal to nationalism and to those who believe the cause of Britains woes are Europe.
It gives them clear water from the Lib Dems.
The Tories win the election and the Lib Dems are wiped out.
Cameron then negotiates with the EU who say no we will not let you be in our club but give you vetoes etc which give you economic advantages.
Cameron then goes to the country with a referendum saying i tried to negoatiate but got nowhere but we have to stay in Europe as it will be disastrous for the UK economy to leave ( he has already said he wants to negotiate powers back but that we should not withdraw from Europe).
All the major parties then say stay in Europe he either wins the vote or lose it and we withdraw from Europe.
Either way he is playing Russian Roulette with the British Economy. But as it is about winning elections who cares.
Well firstly of course it is about politics. This is a political issue.
You seem to be critical of a PM for being aware of the public's concern regarding the EU.
Are you against the PM trying to return some of the lost powers to our parliament?
If you read his speech he is obviously commited to remaining in the EU. But he is not shirking the very difficult job of trying to renegotiate lost powers. This may or may not be successful. But come the next election the public will know if he was successful and if he or the EU were being unreasonable and they can vote accordingley.
If he were to win the next election my guess is that all three main parties will campaign to stay in and the public will also then vote also to stay in.
Another senario is that this stategy brings out the real facts regarding our membership and it may show that leaving the EU is not the disaster that the Europhiles keep predicting.
eg Our huge trade deficit with the EU together with the cost of membership produces an unconvincing argument for staying in. (46bn GBP deficit with EU in 2011 ...17.1bn surplus with rest of world)
Indeed there could well be further trouble for the Euro before the election with more costly bailouts required.
My own view is to try and win back some powers that give some benefit to our trade but I am at present open minded as to staying in or leaving. I would like to see the full facts.
However my guess is that the real economic plus or minus to our membership is very small (UK exports to the EU are equivalent to less than 8.7% of UK GDP much less than the rest of the world (10%)) and talk of an economic disaster if we leave are just scare stories. Under Article 50, the EU is legally required to negotiate "free and fair trade" with non-EU countries, so we would continue to have access to the EU markets, just like other countries. The EU would not want a trade war with the UK, if we were outside the single market as they have much more to lose than we.