[Mild Rover]

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:36 am  

Sal Paradise wrote: Redwood and Gove were correct it could have been had it not been for the remain side putting up every barrier to stop it. Nobody actually knows how things will pan out if/when we leave with no deal - its never been done before and we all know how accurate economic forecasting is!! The referendum was lost on two areas: immigration and who writes our laws. The EU are now in a tricky spot - they can play two ends off against the middle as they could before. We are in for an interesting 2020. Well, we’ll see now, I guess. For all the farting about, the divorce deal and the UK’s position now is exactly where it was always going to be once the the redlines were, pretty resoundingly, endorsed by the electorate a week and a bit ago. The difficult Irish border decision having been made. The Leave side now has every opportunity to play those cards. This is where it gets complicated, and trade-offs have to be made. Those are our Government’s decisions to make, which I know is a big win in itself for Brexiteers. But, inevitably some of those choices will be painful and disappoint some people, and those with highest hopes are likely to be the most disappointed. Sal Paradise wrote: I don't think there is anyone out there expecting a boost from leaving - what people are expecting is a country that can control its laws and its borders - simple as. Don’t forget that most people aren’t that engaged with it, and have better things to do with their time than to discuss it as much as we do. Illegally hunting foxes, watching Mrs Brown’s Boys and other Guardianista bete noires, probably. Some people do see Brexit as an economic panacea that has been denied that them by a cruel and out of touch liberal elite. While both measures had dropped from 57% of Leave voters in 2017, in March of this year 42% and 48% of Leave voters believed Brexit will be good for UK jobs, and the UK economy, respectively. While only 11% of Leave voters thought Brexit will be bad for the UK economy, 67% of them thought it’ll be bad for the EU economy. Assuming that isn’t double-think or ignorance about the relative size of the UK and EU27 markets, I can only imagine that is based on no longer making a net contribution to the EU outweighing the impact on trade. The jobs thing could be around greater demand for labour (small l) with reduced EU immigration, a major Remain blindspot, imo. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ons-brexit And, anecdotally, looking out from my liberal bubble, via Channel 4 News going to meet real people in Keighley, I was struck by a comment from a woman who bemoaned the state of the High Street and expressed hope that Brexit would deliver the investment required to improve it. A community that has been taken for granted and ignored by Labour and abandoned by Conservative governments, and it is a bit sad to see people so desperate for change that they’ll pin their hopes on this. To be fair, nobody is offering them anything else very compelling, and the alternative is that they give up hope.

Sal Paradise wrote: Redwood and Gove were correct it could have been had it not been for the remain side putting up every barrier to stop it. Nobody actually knows how things will pan out if/when we leave with no deal - its never been done before and we all know how accurate economic forecasting is!! The referendum was lost on two areas: immigration and who writes our laws. The EU are now in a tricky spot - they can play two ends off against the middle as they could before. We are in for an interesting 2020. Well, we’ll see now, I guess. For all the farting about, the divorce deal and the UK’s position now is exactly where it was always going to be once the the redlines were, pretty resoundingly, endorsed by the electorate a week and a bit ago. The difficult Irish border decision having been made. The Leave side now has every opportunity to play those cards. This is where it gets complicated, and trade-offs have to be made. Those are our Government’s decisions to make, which I know is a big win in itself for Brexiteers. But, inevitably some of those choices will be painful and disappoint some people, and those with highest hopes are likely to be the most disappointed. Sal Paradise wrote: I don't think there is anyone out there expecting a boost from leaving - what people are expecting is a country that can control its laws and its borders - simple as. Don’t forget that most people aren’t that engaged with it, and have better things to do with their time than to discuss it as much as we do. Illegally hunting foxes, watching Mrs Brown’s Boys and other Guardianista bete noires, probably. Some people do see Brexit as an economic panacea that has been denied that them by a cruel and out of touch liberal elite. While both measures had dropped from 57% of Leave voters in 2017, in March of this year 42% and 48% of Leave voters believed Brexit will be good for UK jobs, and the UK economy, respectively. While only 11% of Leave voters thought Brexit will be bad for the UK economy, 67% of them thought it’ll be bad for the EU economy. Assuming that isn’t double-think or ignorance about the relative size of the UK and EU27 markets, I can only imagine that is based on no longer making a net contribution to the EU outweighing the impact on trade. The jobs thing could be around greater demand for labour (small l) with reduced EU immigration, a major Remain blindspot, imo. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ons-brexit And, anecdotally, looking out from my liberal bubble, via Channel 4 News going to meet real people in Keighley, I was struck by a comment from a woman who bemoaned the state of the High Street and expressed hope that Brexit would deliver the investment required to improve it. A community that has been taken for granted and ignored by Labour and abandoned by Conservative governments, and it is a bit sad to see people so desperate for change that they’ll pin their hopes on this. To be fair, nobody is offering them anything else very compelling, and the alternative is that they give up hope.

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:46 am  

[quote="]Mild Rover"was struck by a comment from a woman who bemoaned the state of the High Street and expressed hope that Brexit would deliver the investment required to improve it.[/quote]

did anyone point out that the traditional High Street is gone, more down to online shopping than any lack of investment. Tesco have invested millions, but are still closing branches, Mothercare, Toys r Us, Maplins, Woolworths, Dixons, Comet, Austin Reed, C&A, Thomas Cook, Pound World, JJB sports...all gone to the wall in recent years.

[Mild Rover]

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 10:55 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

the redlines were, pretty resoundingly, endorsed by the electorate a week and a bit ago.

Actually, having said that, if we make the big leap about it being purely a Brexit election, and acknowledging that first past the post is what matters and that was a triumph for Johnson...

Conservative plus Brexit party was 45.6%

Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, and Green (covering a variety of less Brexity options) combined was 50.3%

Nobody else managed 1% of the National vote.

[Mild Rover]

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:05 am  

IR80 wrote:

did anyone point out that the traditional High Street is gone, more down to online shopping than any lack of investment. Tesco have invested millions, but are still closing branches, Mothercare, Toys r Us, Maplins, Woolworths, Dixons, Comet, Austin Reed, C&A, Thomas Cook, Pound World, JJB sports...all gone to the wall in recent years.

No, and I agree that is very pertinent.

I just think that Brexit has come to represent something much bigger than it really is to some people, and managing expectations and disappointment with it will be a major challenge for the Johnson Government as they try to achieve a second full term.

The electoral map has been redrawn, and that is no bad thing imo. These people could be the new Mondeo Man and Worcester Woman - they probably deserve a turn as a key demographic, tbf.

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:09 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I don't think there is anyone out there expecting a boost from leaving - what people are expecting is a country that can control its laws and its borders - simple as.

Mr Johnson has indeed promised a Brexit Dividend on multiple occasions, no mention from his of any "economic hit"
Is he once again being economical with the truth or does he really expect an improvement in our prosperity ?

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:11 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

No, and I agree that is very pertinent.

I just think that Brexit has come to represent something much bigger than it really is to some people, and managing expectations and disappointment with it will be a major challenge for the Johnson Government as they try to achieve a second full term.

The electoral map has been redrawn, and that is no bad thing imo. These people could be the new Mondeo Man and Worcester Woman - they probably deserve a turn as a key demographic, tbf.

agree with all of that.

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 11:55 am  

IR80 wrote:

You are talking high end, saught after brands, not day to day purchases.

I know that. I was just pointing out that 'our Jake' was saying the peasants can enjoy cheaper crap, while he and his ilk will still enjoy the good stuff, no matter what happens.

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 2:11 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

I know that. I was just pointing out that 'our Jake' was saying the peasants can enjoy cheaper crap, while he and his ilk will still enjoy the good stuff, no matter what happens.

I must have missed something, who is 'our Jake', do you mean Jacob Rees Mogg?

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 5:22 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I don't think there is anyone out there expecting a boost from leaving - what people are expecting is a country that can control its laws and its borders - simple as.

So how would the government justify signing up to a trade deal with the US that would place locks on a future UK government from bringing in new environmental, food safety or product standards, and forces us to get rid of the existing NICE system for recommending and purchasing drugs, so that we paid higher prices for US-produced medicines.

Similarly, in a trade deal with India where the Indians are insistent that we stop classing Indian citizens as high risk in terms of immigration, and relax the rules on visas from India.

The government wants to secure trade deals so will have to accept some compromises like this, and will have to sell that to an electorate who thought we were leaving Europe to regain freedom to make our own laws rather than see our own government sign them away in an external trade agreement.

Re: The break up of the Union : Sun Dec 22, 2019 6:10 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

So how would the government justify signing up to a trade deal with the US that would place locks on a future UK government from bringing in new environmental, food safety or product standards, and forces us to get rid of the existing NICE system for recommending and purchasing drugs, so that we paid higher prices for US-produced medicines.

Similarly, in a trade deal with India where the Indians are insistent that we stop classing Indian citizens as high risk in terms of immigration, and relax the rules on visas from India.

The government wants to secure trade deals so will have to accept some compromises like this, and will have to sell that to an electorate who thought we were leaving Europe to regain freedom to make our own laws rather than see our own government sign them away in an external trade agreement.

Where have you seen a copy pf the deal, considering Trump may be impeached or voted out before we leave the EU at the end of 2020?