Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am  

Sal Paradise wrote: As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods? There was an article in the Economist early this year about this: http://www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... dium-sized It suggested that when the pound falls, its good news for small firm exporters that tend to manufacture at home and sell abroad, but had less effect on large firm exporters that are likely to have some parts of their operations based overseas close to their customers, so when the pound falls their costs in overseas operations rise. So when the pound rises it should be the opposite effect: the small firms that manufacture at home will find it harder to export, but the large firm exporters will not be affected as much. Basically if you are a global firm you are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations for good or bad. The danger I see of a rising pound is what will happen to our trade balance. The most recent figures said we have our biggest trade deficit since 1989. A year or so ago the Coalition were always talking about "rebalancing the economy": from imports to exports, from London to the regions, from services to manufacturing, from consumption and government spending to investment etc but this is one thing that is definitely not happening in terms of the recent good news on growth. We are not seeing those rebalancing effects in fact on some of those measures we are becoming more unbalanced. If the pound rises then its good news for families struggling with flatlining wages and the cost of living but the flipside is the reason its good news is because it means imported goods become cheaper (hence it bearing down on inflation), this means our imports are likely to rise and our trade balance could get even worse. Given that a trade deficit is always financed by accruing debt to the rest of the world, this is not a healthy situation.

Sal Paradise wrote: As we import more than we export that would have a positive effect on inflation - although it will affect tourism etc. Given what we export seems quite specialist i.e. not mass market will the rise in the pound have a huge impact on these goods? There was an article in the Economist early this year about this: http://www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... dium-sized It suggested that when the pound falls, its good news for small firm exporters that tend to manufacture at home and sell abroad, but had less effect on large firm exporters that are likely to have some parts of their operations based overseas close to their customers, so when the pound falls their costs in overseas operations rise. So when the pound rises it should be the opposite effect: the small firms that manufacture at home will find it harder to export, but the large firm exporters will not be affected as much. Basically if you are a global firm you are less likely to be affected by currency fluctuations for good or bad. The danger I see of a rising pound is what will happen to our trade balance. The most recent figures said we have our biggest trade deficit since 1989. A year or so ago the Coalition were always talking about "rebalancing the economy": from imports to exports, from London to the regions, from services to manufacturing, from consumption and government spending to investment etc but this is one thing that is definitely not happening in terms of the recent good news on growth. We are not seeing those rebalancing effects in fact on some of those measures we are becoming more unbalanced. If the pound rises then its good news for families struggling with flatlining wages and the cost of living but the flipside is the reason its good news is because it means imported goods become cheaper (hence it bearing down on inflation), this means our imports are likely to rise and our trade balance could get even worse. Given that a trade deficit is always financed by accruing debt to the rest of the world, this is not a healthy situation.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:10 pm  

General Zod. wrote:

The so called economists of the mainstream media are thick - just like you..

Nice formation of an argument!

General Zod. wrote:

"George Osborne likes to say that the UK government’s cost of borrowing (the yield on gilts – government IOUs) is low because investors are impressed with his running of the economy.

This is complete and utter tripe.

Gilt yields are low because the Bank of England now owns about a third of the entire market. If the Bank was to try to even think of offloading these bonds, or even to stop buying gilts, we’d soon see how impressed investors are with Osborne’s governance.

In short, the UK is a ‘zombie’ economy. From top to bottom, it’s being kept on life support by low interest rates".

Source: John Stepek, Money Week

In short:-

As soon as interest rates go up we are finished.

As soon as foreign investors move away from the pound we are finished.

This is only a matter of time.

This is the same doommonger John Stepek whose non main stream economic advice at the start of 2013 was to Buy Gold. This same magazine this year stated 2013 was "terrible for gold" Gold dropped 431 points (25.69% in value)

I bet you also believe that other sad leftie economist Danny 'I'm always wrong' Blanchflower!

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:57 am  

Him wrote:

Not at all, I hadn't actually noticed your post, apologies.:

Apology accepted

Him wrote:

It certainly wasn't a deliberate error to mislead, the graphs on that site are, however, a little misleading themselves. For instance if you use the same data ie GDP per capita PPP but for 2010 to 2013 you will see it shows the higher figure I quoted as being for a period including 2010 and into 2011, but not to the end of 2011.
If I was incorrect, I apologise and withdraw the comment.:

Ok I accept you didn't intend to mislead. The graph shows end of year figures, which is normal. You quoted the end of 2011. Given that the coalition had enjoyed 2 to 3 quarters of growth in 2010 since the election this would have made the increases to date even greater than using the end of 2010 figures.

As you were clearly incorrect and I also thank you your apology for this too. So I can repeat what you said at the time but with the opposite conclusion "thank you for proving the GDP per capita figures have risen since 2010"

Can we also agree that when you state something in future as a fact, or as you prefer to state "FACT", then we should all take it with a large pinch of salt

Him wrote:

Incidentally, I notice the Andrew Mitchell thread hasn't been touched recently...

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:01 pm  

Inflation falls further.

Milliband will have to find a new sound bite soon. This 'cost of living crisis' myth won't wash much longer.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:04 pm  

Ajw71 wrote:

Inflation falls further.

Milliband will have to find a new sound bite soon. This 'cost of living crisis' myth won't wash much longer.

So people are not suffering? People are not struggling? People hsve suddenly found that they really can make ends meet?

Must try harder, little troll.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue Jan 14, 2014 7:32 pm  

Mintball wrote:

So people are not suffering? People are not struggling? People hsve suddenly found that they really can make ends meet?

Must try harder, little troll.

and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question)

[DaveO]

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:38 am  

Standee wrote: and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question) Have a read of this: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/20/1393672/the-real-rate-of-british-inflation/ What they are arguing is that inflation on essentials is much worse than the headline rate and also that as wage inflation has consistently been lower than this "real" rate of inflation we all feel poorer regrdless of what the inflation rate is suposed to be. It certainly mirrors my perception of what things in the weekly shop cost. I am no statistician but for example I am sure if some dramatic drop in the cost of petrol means the headline rate drops anyone who doesn't drive will stick two fingers up at any rejoicing at the new low rate they themselves are not enjoying. Tablet computers are also in the basket of goods used to compile the official headline inflation rate. We buy one of those on a weekly basis don't we! Worse though for the overall picture is that wages have not kept pace with prices even if you ignore the essentials index. So that alone will make people feel worse off especially as they get naff all on interests on savings. One thing missing from the essential index and (I think, though I could be wrong) the headline rate is rent. Add in the effect of loss of child benefit for some and the reduction in other benefits and you get the picture. Here in Chester if the council have their way I will from Sept 2015 face a £1200 a year charge for transport of my Austisic son to school. That will make my personal inflation rate much higher than other people with the same income won't it.

Standee wrote: and how much worse is it, genuinely, than it was under Labour? (serious question) Have a read of this: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/02/20/1393672/the-real-rate-of-british-inflation/ What they are arguing is that inflation on essentials is much worse than the headline rate and also that as wage inflation has consistently been lower than this "real" rate of inflation we all feel poorer regrdless of what the inflation rate is suposed to be. It certainly mirrors my perception of what things in the weekly shop cost. I am no statistician but for example I am sure if some dramatic drop in the cost of petrol means the headline rate drops anyone who doesn't drive will stick two fingers up at any rejoicing at the new low rate they themselves are not enjoying. Tablet computers are also in the basket of goods used to compile the official headline inflation rate. We buy one of those on a weekly basis don't we! Worse though for the overall picture is that wages have not kept pace with prices even if you ignore the essentials index. So that alone will make people feel worse off especially as they get naff all on interests on savings. One thing missing from the essential index and (I think, though I could be wrong) the headline rate is rent. Add in the effect of loss of child benefit for some and the reduction in other benefits and you get the picture. Here in Chester if the council have their way I will from Sept 2015 face a £1200 a year charge for transport of my Austisic son to school. That will make my personal inflation rate much higher than other people with the same income won't it.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:52 am  

Lord Elpers wrote:

Apology accepted

Ok I accept you didn't intend to mislead. The graph shows end of year figures, which is normal. You quoted the end of 2011. Given that the coalition had enjoyed 2 to 3 quarters of growth in 2010 since the election this would have made the increases to date even greater than using the end of 2010 figures.

As you were clearly incorrect and I also thank you your apology for this too. So I can repeat what you said at the time but with the opposite conclusion "thank you for proving the GDP per capita figures have risen since 2010"

Can we also agree that when you state something in future as a fact, or as you prefer to state "FACT", then we should all take it with a large pinch of salt

Actually most figures aren't end of year, they're often quarterly or partial years. Some are then averaged out to be used as yearly figures.
I also have never used the term "FACT". Not sure who you're confusing me with there. I'll happily admit I got that one wrong, I looked at the graph for those years and going by that you can see why I posted what I did. Unfortunately for me the graph was incorrectly labelled. But as it was only 1 point in a larger post basically about how it's the economy hasn't recovered yet and any recovery is down to the economy itself not government fiscal policy, it changes very little really.

As for the Mitchell thread, well nice bluster on there but you've steered well clear of the actual issue on it. Again, I wonder why

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:52 pm  

Him wrote:

Actually most figures aren't end of year, they're often quarterly or partial years. Some are then averaged out to be used as yearly figures.

Well this graph was obviously a yearly one and you chose to quote the 2011 figures and stated it was the 2010 figure. Your apology is beginning to look a bit weaselly. You ability to read graphs is matched by your ability to see invisible shocked members of the public on CCTV film!

Him wrote:

I also have never used the term "FACT". Not sure who you're confusing me with there. I'll happily admit I got that one wrong,

Him wrote:

Or of course I could always revert to the right-wingers tactic of simply making things up? Maybe if I do that and then put the word "FACT" next to it? Or some other word? If I do that often enough I could even convince myself it might be true.

You have a short memory. Was this your pre-warning of this tactic? Pass the salt I need a big pinch again.

Him wrote:

I looked at the graph for those years and going by that you can see why I posted what I did. Unfortunately for me the graph was incorrectly labelled. But as it was only 1 point in a larger post basically about how it's the economy hasn't recovered yet and any recovery is down to the economy itself not government fiscal policy, it changes very little really.

Not so - you made a big point that the GDP PPP had fallen since the coalition came to office. So what it changes is the exact opposite of what you claimed. Obviously not of great concern to you. Is this what you keep referring to as "Guff"

Him wrote:

As for the Mitchell thread, well nice bluster on there but you've steered well clear of the actual issue on it. Again, I wonder why

Why do you keep posting Mitchell stuff on this thread? Perhaps you might like to post, on the right thread, what in your opinion are the "actual issues" or is this another "FACT" -- get the salt ready.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed Jan 15, 2014 9:42 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

Well this graph was obviously a yearly one and you chose to quote the 2011 figures and stated it was the 2010 figure. Your apology is beginning to look a bit weaselly. You ability to read graphs is matched by your ability to see invisible shocked members of the public on CCTV film!

Was it? Obviously? Not the graph I looked at. It didn't show a yearly figure. It was apparently wrongly labelled. But I've accepted that point already. As I said it makes little difference to the overall picture for most people, especially if you start looking at regional variances.

Lord Elpers wrote:

You have a short memory. Was this your pre-warning of this tactic? Pass the salt I need a big pinch again.

This should be a dictionary definition of grasping at straws!

Lord Elpers wrote:

Not so - you made a big point that the GDP PPP had fallen since the coalition came to office. So what it changes is the exact opposite of what you claimed. Obviously not of great concern to you. Is this what you keep referring to as "Guff"

Did I? Where is this big point that I made? I believe it was as part of a larger post. You only chose to pick up on one stat within that post and ignored the others. Did you think they were irrelevant? You know, like what Andrew Mitchell said is irrelevant in a discussion about what Andrew Mitchell said?

Lord Elpers wrote:

Why do you keep posting Mitchell stuff on this thread? Perhaps you might like to post, on the right thread, what in your opinion are the "actual issues" or is this another "FACT" -- get the salt ready.

Because you're hilarious that's why
You can bluster and misdirect all you want, you've been shown up on the Mitchell thread through trying to change the whole point of the debate, the same way you have here. No doubt there will be further attempted misdirection and bluster in your next post. Though quite how salt and using the word "FACT" in capital letters made it into the debate I really don't know.