Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 9:29 am  

Saddened! wrote:

It's an interesting move from the Scottish. The media are now banging the referendum drum again. Do they have the power to hold another referendum again so soon after losing the previous one?

They'll include something in their 2016 Scottish election manifesto. Perhaps not demanding an immediate election (they'll want to wait for the oil price to rise) more about setting out conditions that would allow them to call a referendum. If they get a similar result in the elections they'll argue they have a mandate.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 9:48 am  

Saddened! wrote:

It's an interesting move from the Scottish. The media are now banging the referendum drum again. Do they have the power to hold another referendum again so soon after losing the previous one?

They have the freedom to do whatever the like. They have the power to achieve very little.

I'm sure most Scottish politicians who don't harbour notions of self-immolation will have taken heed of the colossal pressure that seemed to appear out-of-nowhere like a Amazonian python a few weeks before the referendum to take the vote away. At that point you can be certain they will have understood the message.

Challenging the mob boss' authority once is dangerous enough. Twice in short succession and you're practically begging to spend your next night sleeping with the fish.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:04 am  

I have to say the result went as I expected - ie a (probable) small Tory majority.

As I have said for 5 years Labour failed because it does not represent anybody. It tries to appeal to floating voters but gives nobody a reason to vote for them. Miliband was never a man for the British electorate but he per se was not the big problem. The problem was not communicating any policy until shortly before the election but even then in woolly, non-straightforward language and even then no coherent policy just piecemeal bits of attempted popularism. They have lost Scotland by that failure in representation and I doubt will ever get it back.

So, Labour need root and branch rethinking. They need a strong,campaigning, charismatic leader and to set out asap their vision of what they are about and who / what they represent. They then need to spend 5 years shouting it from the roof tops and being a forceful opposition. Do that and get it right and they may just turn it round. Don't and they are finished as an electoral force.

As to LibDems the commentators are talking tosh. All that has happened is they grew over recent elections as a party of protest and Clegg's pledge breaking 5 years ago (and I my view to a lesser extent their coalition) has made people realise they are not a decent protest vote and basically they are back to where they where a few elections back. UKIP have taken up the mantle of the protest vote but it is just that.

Labour by throwing away Scotland over recent years has probably destroyed itself. So, I guess we will need to reconsider the electoral system if that proves the case and the union may break.

As t shorter term ramifications - when do you think the first riots will be? Summer 2017 for me, although may be earlier.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:11 am  

Dally wrote:

As t shorter term ramifications - when do you think the first riots will be? Summer 2017 for me, although may be earlier.

Why would there be riots? The previous ones were race related, how long has it been since we had policitcal/economic protests on that scale?

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:12 am  

Mugwump wrote:

If the exit polls are to believed it looks like pretty much what I predicted last year.

This election was gamed the moment UKIP arrived out of nowhere (financed to the eyeballs). Why people seem to think the British electorate won't put up with cynical race-baiting I've no idea.

Anyhow, both the Lib-Dems and UKIP have performed their tasks manfully. The Beeb seems shocked that Farage might lose his seat. But like the Lib-Dems (who will now take up their high-salaried roles in the city as payment for allowing the Tories to rape them each day since the last election) - Farage will now jet off to a nice house in the sun somewhere.

Neither were ever going to be around during this next government which will now execute its plans for massive public-spending cuts, the railroading through of TPPA, European arm-twisting and heaven knows what else.

Opening up the Scottish vote was nothing but a cynical ploy to further undermine the power of a major state government.

The electorate really does get the government it deserves (not that Cameron possesses anything like the power British PMs 50 years ago wielded). I hope it enjoys it.

Bitter individual - did you seriously think things would be better under Labour?

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:20 am  

Dally wrote:

I have to say the result went as I expected - ie a (probable) small Tory majority.

As I have said for 5 years Labour failed because it does not represent anybody. It tries to appeal to floating voters but gives nobody a reason to vote for them. Miliband was never a man for the British electorate but he per se was not the big problem. The problem was not communicating any policy until shortly before the election but even then in woolly, non-straightforward language and even then no coherent policy just piecemeal bits of attempted popularism. They have lost Scotland by that failure in representation and I doubt will ever get it back.

So, Labour need root and branch rethinking. They need a strong,campaigning, charismatic leader and to set out asap their vision of what they are about and who / what they represent. They then need to spend 5 years shouting it from the roof tops and being a forceful opposition. Do that and get it right and they may just turn it round. Don't and they are finished as an electoral force.

As to LibDems the commentators are talking tosh. All that has happened is they grew over recent elections as a party of protest and Clegg's pledge breaking 5 years ago (and I my view to a lesser extent their coalition) has made people realise they are not a decent protest vote and basically they are back to where they where a few elections back. UKIP have taken up the mantle of the protest vote but it is just that.

Labour by throwing away Scotland over recent years has probably destroyed itself. So, I guess we will need to reconsider the electoral system if that proves the case and the union may break.

As t shorter term ramifications - when do you think the first riots will be? Summer 2017 for me, although may be earlier.

You called it to be fair.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:20 am  

I think that the big surprise is that so many bought into the view that it had to be a hung parliament. One thing that the polls consistently showed was that 1 in 4 had not decided (or preferred not to disclose their views) So it was always on the cards that one of the two main parties could win an overall majority a fact that was ignored by the pundits, politicians and the over hyped media and not made clear enough by the pollsters.

It was clear to me last year that Labour were facing a disaster in Scotland and did not have the leadership, policies or credibility (particularly on the economy) to produce a win in England against a successful Tory led Government which had turned the UK economy around from the disaster left by the previous Labour government.

[DaveO]

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:26 am  

Dally wrote:

As to LibDems the commentators are talking tosh. All that has happened is they grew over recent elections as a party of protest and Clegg's pledge breaking 5 years ago (and I my view to a lesser extent their coalition) has made people realise they are not a decent protest vote and basically they are back to where they where a few elections back. UKIP have taken up the mantle of the protest vote but it is just that.

Last I looked before all the results were in Labour had increased it share of the vote by about 1.4%, the Tories by only 0.4% yet we have the result we do. I have not checked that many but a quick look at a number of seats such as one in Bury shows a lot of similarity to what happened when the SDP split the Labour vote and let the Tories in with a large majority.

In Bury North the Tory got 18.9K, Labour 18.5K and UKIP 5.5K. I'd hazard a guess most of those 5.5K came from Labour. If they did I think those voters will live to regret it. As for that matter will the Labour defectors to the SNP in Scotland.

The same almost happened in Chester where Labour gained from the Tories by a slender majority of less than 100. When it was previously Labour prior to 2010 it has had majorities of around 5K. UKIP got a about 4.4K and their candidate was from Blacon, the big council estate and Labour stronghold so its almost certain in my view that this where most of their votes came from.

Every cloud has a silver lining and for me that comes in the form of that odious woman Esther McVey getting the boot in Wirral.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:43 am  

DaveO wrote:

Last I looked before all the results were in Labour had increased it share of the vote by about 1.4%, the Tories by only 0.4% yet we have the result we do. I have not checked that many but a quick look at a number of seats such as one in Bury shows a lot of similarity to what happened when the SDP split the Labour vote and let the Tories in with a large majority.

In Bury North the Tory got 18.9K, Labour 18.5K and UKIP 5.5K. I'd hazard a guess most of those 5.5K came from Labour. If they did I think those voters will live to regret it. As for that matter will the Labour defectors to the SNP in Scotland.

The same almost happened in Chester where Labour gained from the Tories by a slender majority of less than 100. When it was previously Labour prior to 2010 it has had majorities of around 5K. UKIP got a about 4.4K and their candidate was from Blacon, the big council estate and Labour stronghold so its almost certain in my view that this where most of their votes came from.

Every cloud has a silver lining and for me that comes in the form of that odious woman Esther McVey getting the boot in Wirral.

I would agree. I was not suggesting the protest vote was a simple switch from LibDem to UKIP but the overall numbers are similar (albeit almost certainly it was different individuals "protesting)."

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:44 am  

Dally wrote:

I have to say the result went as I expected - ie a (probable) small Tory majority.

As I have said for 5 years Labour failed because it does not represent anybody. It tries to appeal to floating voters but gives nobody a reason to vote for them. Miliband was never a man for the British electorate but he per se was not the big problem. The problem was not communicating any policy until shortly before the election but even then in woolly, non-straightforward language and even then no coherent policy just piecemeal bits of attempted popularism. They have lost Scotland by that failure in representation and I doubt will ever get it back.

If you think the Scots are from now to eternity going worship in gratitude at the feet of the SNP because they *think* they've gained some woolly concept that doesn't survive outside of political philosophy classes you are mistaken.

Labour will be back - "New" and "Improved" in four years as the "Only Sane Choice". Here they will save us (once again) from the "Heartless Monster of Conservatism". In Scotland they will likely be re-branded as "Traditional Labour" hell bent on kicking out SNP who - after a hellish four years in which they've been castrated by massive pressure from across the border, rocked by scandals and the victim of all manner of dirty tricks - will be facing the wrath of their own electorate for "selling them out".

If Machiavelli were alive he'd doubtless point out that even now - at the height of its supposed supremacy - the SNP wields little power. Scotland is a dirt poor little backwater. It exerts practically no influence outside its own borders and it certainly isn't able to stave off the attentions of its more powerful neighbour by punching it on the nose.

Right now it's the calm before the storm. I'll give them two years before the murkier elements of projected British power have them tearing each others throats out. Then enter "New" New Labour on a white horse.

It's the oldest scam in the book.