Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 10:52 am  

It's not as simple as just blaming Ed Milliband. The rise of UKIP and the SNP plus the collapse of the Lib Dems is what ultimately did for Labour in this election.

The Labour vote held up ok in England & Wales. It was Scotland that took 40 odd MP's away from Labour plus UKIP siphoning votes in some constituencies that were only narrowly held or gained by the Tories, plus too many Lib Dem constituencies turning blue instead of red.

But it isn't quite the disaster for Labour that's being made out. Nor is it a brilliant victory by the Tories. The Tories have benefitted from those issues Ive mentioned but their support is wafer thin. If the Lib Dems produce a decent leader and speak sensibly for 5 years then those Lib Dem constituencies will return and the UKIP vote has a good chance of collapsing if Farage isnt leader.

Having said that there was plenty Labour did wrong. Not challenging the austerity/over-spending/Labour crashed the economy charge laid at their door from day 1. Not advising Milliband well enough (bar one or 2 moments he only got going in the campaign by which point it was too late). But the main issues for me were:
- putting Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor - he's been terrible. Could never properly challenge Osborne or the Tories even when the economy was shrinking. And just comes across as if he doesn't really know what he's on about.
- not having a strong enough shadow cabinet/leadership around Milliband. When you compare to what Tony Blair had at his disposal (Brown, Blunkett, Cook, Mandelson etc).
They need to change that if they want to win next time.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 11:02 am  

Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have resigned has the leaders of their parties.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 11:08 am  

Lord Elpers wrote:

I think that the big surprise is that so many bought into the view that it had to be a hung parliament. One thing that the polls consistently showed was that 1 in 4 had not decided (or preferred not to disclose their views) So it was always on the cards that one of the two main parties could win an overall majority a fact that was ignored by the pundits, politicians and the over hyped media and not made clear enough by the pollsters.

It was clear to me last year that Labour were facing a disaster in Scotland and did not have the leadership, policies or credibility (particularly on the economy) to produce a win in England against a successful Tory led Government which had turned the UK economy around from the disaster left by the previous Labour government.

I think most of the smart Labour politicians saw the writing on the wall the minute UKIP appeared on the scene, their coat-pockets stuffed with wads of cash from corporate benefactors.

As stated, I don't consider UKIP a political party. It's a brazen tool for election-rigging. You tell people the "Fuzzy Wuzzies are breaking down the doors and about to steal what's rightfully THEIRS" and they'll be queuing down main street to vote for them.

The decision that this was to be a Tory double-term was taken ages back. And UKIP was the safeguard to ensure no one reneged on the deal.

This explains why the Labour effort over the last few years has been so obviously half-hearted. I mean, no one with a shred of intelligence would ever make Milliband the face of a major political party. Ed Balls knew the score. He realised it's better to not be around for the next few years whilst Labour go at each other with knives. By spending some time out he freshly launders his image just in time for the next election when Labour is destined to "Save Britain" from heartless Toryism.

To be honest, I don't even know why I'm framing this within the context of political dichotomy. There truth is there is really only one political party in Britain containing multiple factions. They'll happily fight each other. But should "The Party" itself be threatened they'll happily link arms and defend what they see as an attack upon their class.

Until people wake up and recognise this scam for exactly what it is we will forever be under their boot heels.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 11:11 am  

Dead Man Walking wrote:

Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have resigned has the leaders of their parties.

And will now be rewarded for their efforts in spades. Jobs done.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 11:14 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Bitter individual - did you seriously think things would be better under Labour?

Don't be ridiculous. I'd sooner vote for you.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 11:15 am  

Dead Man Walking wrote:

Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have resigned has the leaders of their parties.

So has Miliband, using the word 'friends' every 5 seconds.

Hopefully he won't have any connections through which to find a good job, or he'll feel Mugwump's wrath.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 11:45 am  

Mugwump wrote:

If you think the Scots are from now to eternity going worship in gratitude at the feet of the SNP because they *think* they've gained some woolly concept that doesn't survive outside of political philosophy classes you are mistaken.

Labour will be back - "New" and "Improved" in four years as the "Only Sane Choice". Here they will save us (once again) from the "Heartless Monster of Conservatism". In Scotland they will likely be re-branded as "Traditional Labour" hell bent on kicking out SNP who - after a hellish four years in which they've been castrated by massive pressure from across the border, rocked by scandals and the victim of all manner of dirty tricks - will be facing the wrath of their own electorate for "selling them out".

If Machiavelli were alive he'd doubtless point out that even now - at the height of its supposed supremacy - the SNP wields little power. Scotland is a dirt poor little backwater. It exerts practically no influence outside its own borders and it certainly isn't able to stave off the attentions of its more powerful neighbour by punching it on the nose.

Right now it's the calm before the storm. I'll give them two years before the murkier elements of projected British power have them tearing each others throats out. Then enter "New" New Labour on a white horse.

It's the oldest scam in the book.

I am not clear why you are so sure that the SNP will fade and Labour resurrect. The Tories have never recovered in Scotland, despite being extremely strong in the past. On holiday in Scotland last year I was surprised just how strong SNP sentiment is.

You are also assuming nothing will change. It is going to be hard for their not to a reworking of our system - probably very significantly increased devolution to Scotland allied to the same for Wales, NI, London and parts of England. That will serve to fracture the anti-Tory parties power.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 12:22 pm  

Him wrote:

But it isn't quite the disaster for Labour that's being made out.

Blimey, I would hate to see your definition of a disaster!!! Lost 30(ish) seats, wiped out in Scotland, lost their Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Foreign Secretary (to a school girl), Chief of Election Strategy and their Leader in Scotland.....in what was supposed to be the closest election in a generation, I am not really sure how it could have been much worse for them to be honest?

[DaveO]

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 12:30 pm  

Him wrote:

It's not as simple as just blaming Ed Milliband. The rise of UKIP and the SNP plus the collapse of the Lib Dems is what ultimately did for Labour in this election.

The Labour vote held up ok in England & Wales. It was Scotland that took 40 odd MP's away from Labour plus UKIP siphoning votes in some constituencies that were only narrowly held or gained by the Tories, plus too many Lib Dem constituencies turning blue instead of red.

I agree. There is also one other factor. Luck.

The collapse in the price of oil handed the Tories an economic gift not of their making on a plate. It undermined Labour's "cost of living crisis" stance which before that happened had quite some traction. The fact the electorate have not realised the respite will be temporary is testament to the stupidity of most of it.

But it isn't quite the disaster for Labour that's being made out. Nor is it a brilliant victory by the Tories. The Tories have benefitted from those issues Ive mentioned but their support is wafer thin. If the Lib Dems produce a decent leader and speak sensibly for 5 years then those Lib Dem constituencies will return and the UKIP vote has a good chance of collapsing if Farage isn't leader.

I think the UKIP factor will diminish pretty rapidly whatever the outcome of any EU referendum but I think the Lib Dems are toast for a long, long time. They are back to where they were in the 60's and 70's which was tantamount to being politically irrelevant.

As to Labour and Tories, Labour have potentially dodged a bullet and I don't mean dodging any impending economic disasters.

Even had they won their target seats they would be a minority yet would feel obliged to vote down a Tory Queens speech. Even if the rules say that then Labour gets a go at forming a government and if they did despite the fact it would be technically legitimate the Tory press would never have it. They would in my view have set themselves up to fail far worse than now between now and the next election. For that not to happen they would have had to have been very successful and given the current economic state of the country that would be very hard to do.

The Tories might be delighted today but reality will soon set in. I was half convinced they didn't want to win this time given the way the economic pointers are going. They have cut and sold just abut all there is cut and sell. Not much low hanging fruit left to prune and they have no other ideas. It won't take much for the odd by-election to turn them into a minority government and even as it is, the sh !t wiil hit the fan pretty soon internally with them. They are a divided party when it comes to the EU and other things as well.

Having said that there was plenty Labour did wrong. Not challenging the austerity/over-spending/Labour crashed the economy charge laid at their door from day 1. Not advising Milliband well enough (bar one or 2 moments he only got going in the campaign by which point it was too late). But the main issues for me were:
- putting Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor - he's been terrible. Could never properly challenge Osborne or the Tories even when the economy was shrinking. And just comes across as if he doesn't really know what he's on about.
- not having a strong enough shadow cabinet/leadership around Milliband. When you compare to what Tony Blair had at his disposal (Brown, Blunkett, Cook, Mandelson etc).
They need to change that if they want to win next time.

The point about not challenging the austerity/over-spending/Labour crashed the economy charge is spot one and one I have made before. Miliband only started to do that in the last few weeks. Too late.

Most of the shadow Cabinet were pretty anonymous it must be said.

I can't remember which senior Labour politician it was was but they said they thought the biggest test of Miliband's leadership was if he dared not appoint Balls as shadow chancellor. At the time I thought he should have gone for Cooper, balls wife but it didn't and despite Balls having probably forgotten more about economics than Osborne will ever know, he was damaged goods and could not articulate his points well enough. Overcoming a stammer as he has done is not to be decried but alas as a politician if you can't articulate yourself well enough you are at a severe disadvantage regardless of how bright you are.

Re: The General Election Thread : Fri May 08, 2015 12:34 pm  

Saddened! wrote:

Why would there be riots?

If the Tories go through with their promised £12bn of cuts and people pull out of their lethargy, there will be riots when thousands more disabled and terminally ill people commit suicide after IDS and ATOS's "mistakes" in deeming them fit to work and cancelling their help.

Or when the Tories savagely privatise the NHS - something they laid the groundwork for on the last day of parliament by forcing all NHS contracts to be put out to tender.

Or when they take away all support for anyone under the age of 25, despite the lack of job creation and the highest youth unemployment on record.

So one of those reasons, probably.