Re: PM in Intensive Care... : Thu May 07, 2020 3:36 pm
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Cronus wrote: I doubt anyone is 'pleased'. Far from it. I can see the lefty pub bores were busy yesterday but I'll reply to you as one of the more reasonable posters. Had a busy day gardening, entertaining the offspring and a good guitar sesh (determined to nail that run in the Gary Moore 'Out In The Fields') solo  ).So, plenty of wailing over the numbers. Yes, each country records differently but let's not the facts ruin a good rant, eh? Have any of you actually read the BMA instructions for completing an MCCD during the CV19 outbreak? No? Have you bothered looking into how other countries are recording deaths? No, because god forbid you might gain a smidgen of understanding. Christ, even the government-hating Guardian is open and honest about the unreliability of the stats. There are numerous considerations. For example, in March 14% of UK death certificates mentioning “Covid-19” did not list the disease itself as the underlying cause of death, but were counted anyway. Then we need to consider how underlying conditions influence the numbers. For example, deaths from coronary heart disease (4-5,000ish deaths per month on average) were down 26% in March - so it seems certain that CV19 has either killed some who would have died of CHD in March, or that some died of CHD but their deaths were being incorrectly attributed to CV19. The fact is, not everyone who died WITH it, died OF it, but in the UK their deaths are generally being counted anyway. In addition, even if CV19 hasn't been confirmed via a test, it is 'satisfactory' to 'apply clinical judgement' and enter CV19 on the death certificate if the patient had suspected symptoms, whether it actually killed them or not. Furthermore, for deaths attributed to CV19 - with or without test - a coroner is not required. A GP in a care home can include CV19 on the death certificate even if the patient had been on death's door with something else for weeks, simply because they may have had a fever. In summary - and from anecdotal personal experience - CV19 features on many, many death certificates even where it wasn't the cause of death. Taking all this into account, we seem to be counting too many deaths. Belgium has a similar approach - they record all 'suspected' deaths in care homes whether confirmed or not. Of Belgium’s registered deaths, 44% died in hospital (and were tested). The majority 54% died in a nursing home — and only in 7.8% of those cases were CV19 tested & confirmed as the CAUSE of death. However, over the border in Germany, where someone has tested positive with CV19 and has an underlying condition, the underlying condition is named as the cause of death, not CV19. Almost the polar opposite of Belgium. Things may have changed but only a few weeks ago France was only recording CV19 fatalities in hospitals, Spain wasn't counting unconfirmed cases in care homes, and the Netherlands only tested hospitalised patients. You simply cannot compare the numbers. And finally, although I disagree with country vs country tables - let's not forget in terms of deaths per head of population we're still below Belgium, Italy and Spain. But I'm sure you all think the above should be ignored, because it doesn't agree with the rants over the last few pages. You might read it, you might not. You might make an attempt to understand it, you might not. Either way I'm sure as hell most will disregard it, because that's the style on here. It may well end up that the UK is the worst affected in Europe. That shouldn't surprise anyone, especially as more evidence of far earlier spread comes to light (France has now confirmed a case in December). We have over 120,000 Chinese students, many of whom travelled home over the Xmas academic break, and that's before we even consider the usual leisure travel from our large Chinese populations and the enormous volume of business travel to and from China. We then had many tens of thousands travel to Northern Italy early in the year and massive other volumes of ongoing international travel. England is also one of the most densely populated countries in Europe with one of the biggest cities. In short, it was already here in probably higher volume than most other European countries, and was rapidly spreading with a high R number. Contact tracing was therefore overwhelmed very quickly. Far too quickly as it happens - ideally we would have had more capacity but contact tracing is a very high volume job. Testing has been a huge issue, and even now we have approved and higher quality tests there are massive questions over reliability. Many of the early tests were rejected for precisely this reason. We easily forget this is a new virus, with many unanswered questions. The tests barely existed a few months ago and we (unlike other nations such as Germany) don't have a wide network of private laboratories capable of quickly ramping up. And then we were a few days to a week too late to go into lockdown - which, despite no change in instruction seems to have relaxed massively in the last week or two. B&Q is open (wtf?), takeaways, drive-throughs and many other locations are opening up, traffic has increased. Parks are full on sunny days. Business after business is gleefully announcing their return on social media. I know of several businesses opening up as of Monday, and construction firms have barely stopped anyway. Some arrogant ****s sneak out to meet skanky barmaids. All of this furthers the spread. This isn't going away any time soon. Ill ignore the first part of your post, which reads like a release straight from Tory central office. Of course there are significant differences between all of the nations involved and equally, there are differences in population mass and, yes, we may have large numbers of Chinese students in the UK. However, despite having a few extra weeks to plan our response to the virus, the UK is stacking up casualties, greater in number and still at a quicker rate than those countries that we would usually choose to measure ourselves against. IIRC, you were on of the posters who ridiculed my suggestion thet the UK had a bigger problem than just about all of our EU partners and yet, here we are 2 weeks later, heading the field and drawing clear of the rest. The post that you chose to reply to this time was in response to "exiled down south" suggesting that Boris and the Tories were doing a great job - hello - they are not doing a great job They are still taking the mickey out of the population. First of all suggesting there wasn't a suitable test, despite Germany, South Korea, Singapore etc, etc being "happy" to test their population and instead, they fabricate their numbers - 100,000 tests a day by the end of April ?? FFS, they "hit" this figure twice and only by counting tests that were "in the post" and now, we cant actually hit it, it's embarrassing They have utterly failed the staff and residents in care homes accross the country - at least Bojo appeared embarrassed himself over this and had no answer to Starmer's questions. So, are YOU happy with the job that our government is doing - I'm certainly not and I remain thankful that none of our older relatives are currently in care homes. Just as they did during the Brexit campaign and the GE campaign, the twisting of the truth (lies) continue aplenty and we still have a fecking huge recession to look forward to when we eventually come through the virus situation. Do you think they will accept ANY responsibility for any of this or will we be overloaded with blame for the scientists who's advice we have been following. |
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Cronus wrote: I doubt anyone is 'pleased'. Far from it. I can see the lefty pub bores were busy yesterday but I'll reply to you as one of the more reasonable posters. Had a busy day gardening, entertaining the offspring and a good guitar sesh (determined to nail that run in the Gary Moore 'Out In The Fields') solo ).So, plenty of wailing over the numbers. Yes, each country records differently but let's not the facts ruin a good rant, eh? Have any of you actually read the BMA instructions for completing an MCCD during the CV19 outbreak? No? Have you bothered looking into how other countries are recording deaths? No, because god forbid you might gain a smidgen of understanding. Christ, even the government-hating Guardian is open and honest about the unreliability of the stats. There are numerous considerations. For example, in March 14% of UK death certificates mentioning “Covid-19” did not list the disease itself as the underlying cause of death, but were counted anyway. Then we need to consider how underlying conditions influence the numbers. For example, deaths from coronary heart disease (4-5,000ish deaths per month on average) were down 26% in March - so it seems certain that CV19 has either killed some who would have died of CHD in March, or that some died of CHD but their deaths were being incorrectly attributed to CV19. The fact is, not everyone who died WITH it, died OF it, but in the UK their deaths are generally being counted anyway. In addition, even if CV19 hasn't been confirmed via a test, it is 'satisfactory' to 'apply clinical judgement' and enter CV19 on the death certificate if the patient had suspected symptoms, whether it actually killed them or not. Furthermore, for deaths attributed to CV19 - with or without test - a coroner is not required. A GP in a care home can include CV19 on the death certificate even if the patient had been on death's door with something else for weeks, simply because they may have had a fever. In summary - and from anecdotal personal experience - CV19 features on many, many death certificates even where it wasn't the cause of death. Taking all this into account, we seem to be counting too many deaths. Belgium has a similar approach - they record all 'suspected' deaths in care homes whether confirmed or not. Of Belgium’s registered deaths, 44% died in hospital (and were tested). The majority 54% died in a nursing home — and only in 7.8% of those cases were CV19 tested & confirmed as the CAUSE of death. However, over the border in Germany, where someone has tested positive with CV19 and has an underlying condition, the underlying condition is named as the cause of death, not CV19. Almost the polar opposite of Belgium. Things may have changed but only a few weeks ago France was only recording CV19 fatalities in hospitals, Spain wasn't counting unconfirmed cases in care homes, and the Netherlands only tested hospitalised patients. You simply cannot compare the numbers. And finally, although I disagree with country vs country tables - let's not forget in terms of deaths per head of population we're still below Belgium, Italy and Spain. But I'm sure you all think the above should be ignored, because it doesn't agree with the rants over the last few pages. You might read it, you might not. You might make an attempt to understand it, you might not. Either way I'm sure as hell most will disregard it, because that's the style on here. It may well end up that the UK is the worst affected in Europe. That shouldn't surprise anyone, especially as more evidence of far earlier spread comes to light (France has now confirmed a case in December). We have over 120,000 Chinese students, many of whom travelled home over the Xmas academic break, and that's before we even consider the usual leisure travel from our large Chinese populations and the enormous volume of business travel to and from China. We then had many tens of thousands travel to Northern Italy early in the year and massive other volumes of ongoing international travel. England is also one of the most densely populated countries in Europe with one of the biggest cities. In short, it was already here in probably higher volume than most other European countries, and was rapidly spreading with a high R number. Contact tracing was therefore overwhelmed very quickly. Far too quickly as it happens - ideally we would have had more capacity but contact tracing is a very high volume job. Testing has been a huge issue, and even now we have approved and higher quality tests there are massive questions over reliability. Many of the early tests were rejected for precisely this reason. We easily forget this is a new virus, with many unanswered questions. The tests barely existed a few months ago and we (unlike other nations such as Germany) don't have a wide network of private laboratories capable of quickly ramping up. And then we were a few days to a week too late to go into lockdown - which, despite no change in instruction seems to have relaxed massively in the last week or two. B&Q is open (wtf?), takeaways, drive-throughs and many other locations are opening up, traffic has increased. Parks are full on sunny days. Business after business is gleefully announcing their return on social media. I know of several businesses opening up as of Monday, and construction firms have barely stopped anyway. Some arrogant ****s sneak out to meet skanky barmaids. All of this furthers the spread. This isn't going away any time soon. Ill ignore the first part of your post, which reads like a release straight from Tory central office. Of course there are significant differences between all of the nations involved and equally, there are differences in population mass and, yes, we may have large numbers of Chinese students in the UK. However, despite having a few extra weeks to plan our response to the virus, the UK is stacking up casualties, greater in number and still at a quicker rate than those countries that we would usually choose to measure ourselves against. IIRC, you were on of the posters who ridiculed my suggestion thet the UK had a bigger problem than just about all of our EU partners and yet, here we are 2 weeks later, heading the field and drawing clear of the rest. The post that you chose to reply to this time was in response to "exiled down south" suggesting that Boris and the Tories were doing a great job - hello - they are not doing a great job They are still taking the mickey out of the population. First of all suggesting there wasn't a suitable test, despite Germany, South Korea, Singapore etc, etc being "happy" to test their population and instead, they fabricate their numbers - 100,000 tests a day by the end of April ?? FFS, they "hit" this figure twice and only by counting tests that were "in the post" and now, we cant actually hit it, it's embarrassing They have utterly failed the staff and residents in care homes accross the country - at least Bojo appeared embarrassed himself over this and had no answer to Starmer's questions. So, are YOU happy with the job that our government is doing - I'm certainly not and I remain thankful that none of our older relatives are currently in care homes. Just as they did during the Brexit campaign and the GE campaign, the twisting of the truth (lies) continue aplenty and we still have a fecking huge recession to look forward to when we eventually come through the virus situation. Do you think they will accept ANY responsibility for any of this or will we be overloaded with blame for the scientists who's advice we have been following. |
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for Flashman's plectrum after last weeks 
