[DaveO]

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:04 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

His stated objective is to improve the UK's terms within the EU as the EU begins to make big changes because of the Euro problems. He has not made a case for leaving the EU. Treaties will be changed and our governments job is to protect our interests. If we can improve and preserve our position then there will be strong arguments to remain in. What is wrong with that? The PM has also stated his intention to seek changes for the good of the whole EU and so far has brought encouraging responses from other members.

Well the first point is you don't need a referendum in the UK to do this bit "..."to seek changes for the good of the whole EU.." do you.

As it's our governments job to protect our interests just what is it he thinks is against our interest in the EU at the moment that cold not be dealt with by "..seek(ing) changes for the good of the whole EU..."?

As to improving the UK's terms he hasn't said what he means so you seem to have a lot of blind faith in Cameron and his referendum.

We can however safely assume one of the key ones he and big business want to see is this one I mentioned earlier in the thread:

• A complete repatriation of social and employment laws such as the working time directive which imposes a 48-hour working week. Britain already has an opt-out from that aspect of the directive.

Now personally I feel the majority in this country are far better of due to EU social and employment laws and therefore what I would be being asked to vote on is this (in part):

Do I want to stay in the EU if Cameron can get those laws repatriated and makes it possible for my employer to demand I work long hours and have the ability to sack me on the spot?

Or, do I want to leave the EU if Cameron can't secure an opt out I am not in favour of?

That is apparently all that is on offer and if we leave they will rip up the social and employment laws anyway.

So at the moment as I see it I will be presented with two choices neither of of which I want to vote for.

And before anyone says abstain, abstentions don't count "for" anything and would not prevent one of the two options winning the vote.

So those who see a referendum as a very democratic way of doing things totally miss the point with this one. The nature of the questions likely to be asked make it extremely undemocratic for the reasons explained.

It will be like being asked would I like to be hanged or shot.

Therefore the only valid referendum on EU membership is a straight in/out one in the same way that Scotland has a straightforward question for remaining part of the UK.

Cameron won't go that route because he doesn't want us to leave and calculates his fudge will buy off enough voters for the UK to remain in, will give him a better chance to win the UK election in 2015 and will kick the can down the road as far as pacifying his Eurosceptic MP's goes.

He has proven a hostage to about 90 MP's and what we have ended up with is our parliamentary democracy being circumvented by that minority of MP's who see a chance to get their minority view enacted.

If they claim they represent a majority view of the people despite being a minority in parliament then what they should do is join UKIP and go to the polls in 2015 on an EU exit ticket not circumvent our democratic process by winning a referendum based on inadequate questions.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:16 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

Are you saying you do not agreed with the stats and if so please state what you think they should be?

I did not say we should cut off from selling to the EU. Why do you see things as just black and white? There will not be massive tarriff problems this is pure scare stuff.

That we have run a trade deficit with the EU is hardly a good reason for accepting the status quo. We have a trade surplus with the rest of the world and do not have to pay a huge annual contribution for this trade as we do for the EU.

I am quite sure the full facts are not fully in the public domain yet. As you have also expressed a vociferous opinion, but on many more occassions than I, perhaps you could answer the following question. What is the net monetary benefit p.a. to the UK of current EU membership?


Indeed. But the EU's clout will also diminish considerably if we were to leave. I do not share your concerns that we cannot negotiate free trade terms on our own or through the WTO.

I would say you are taking a very unrealistic view with added scare stuff in suggesting we would incurr trade tarriffs with the EU were we to leave.

Again your are overstating these risks.

This is not a skewed view. We are one of the major net contributors to the EU and run very large trading deficit and our texports to the EU has been in decline for some time. It is arrant nonsense to suggest there would be any form of a trade war if we leave. They need access to our markets as much as we do to theirs.

Equally to could say the benefits of leaving could bring more positive for the UK than negative.

Sorry but this is also nonsense. We are on our own one of the worlds leading economies with enormous influence and proven ability.

I suggest you try and listen to all of Mr Cameron's speech and questions in Davros this morning and you will see his plans for the G8 this year.

His stated objective is to improve the UK's terms within the EU as the EU begins to make big changes because of the Euro problems. He has not made a case for leaving the EU. Treaties will be changed and our governments job is to protect our interests. If we can improve and preserve our position then there will be strong arguments to remain in. What is wrong with that? The PM has also stated his intention to seek changes for the good of the whole EU and so far has brought encouraging responses from other members.

I'm sorry but just gainsaying what I post does not constitute a reasoned argument.
You could begin with a little bit of research, you could start with countries like Norway, Turkey or Switzerland.
You'll find very quickly that our economy is unlike that of any of these countries and that their positions vis-a-vis the EU could not be good for us, you'll find that Norway has had to implement various laws (e.g. Social and Employment, one of the areas that Cameron wants out of ... and also policing, another area that Cameron wants out of) and has adopted 75% of EU laws (some by choice, some because they simply had to) without the benefit of being able to vote on these laws to begin with.
Switzerland has had to negotiate more than a hundred individual bilateral agreements, spread over decades, to avoid various individual tariffs ... do we want to start our own all over again?
Again, Switzerland has to accept many laws in whose formulation they have no say and no vote.
Most importantly, Switzerland is not allowed to sell non-insurance financial services into the EU ... not a great idea for the UK whose fincial and services sector is huge. Switzerland is thinking of maybe adopting EU rules for its insurance services as a way of accessing EU markets. Oh, and by the way, Switzerland has paid about 4 bn Euros so far for the privilege plus it has built a railway through the Alps (15bn Euros), losing the money from road transport, because the EU wanted that connection through Switzerland.
Turkey isn't a great example, as it onbly exports goods and no services to the EU and has pragmatically accepted many EU demands in order to further its own bid for membership.... hence it is not a model for a UK leaving the EU.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:02 pm  

There will not be a referendum because Cameron will not be PM in 2015.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:38 pm  

Dead Man Walking wrote:

There will not be a referendum because Cameron will not be PM in 2015.

Hopefully

[Kosh]

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:00 pm  

Dead Man Walking wrote:

There will not be a referendum because Cameron will not be PM in 2015.

If he goes into that election as the only party leader offering a referendum on the EU, with the largely rabidly anti-EU media banging away about it, I wouldn't bet against him TBH.

Never underestimate the gullibility of the electorate.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:15 pm  

Dead Man Walking wrote:

There will not be a referendum because Cameron will not be PM in 2015.

I think he will be PM after the election but will stand down / be removed to avoid the referendum. In my opinion, it's just a cynical ploy to stop the drift of supporters to UKIP, appease back-benchers and differentiate themselves from Labour.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:50 pm  

Dally wrote:

I think he will be PM after the election but will stand down / be removed to avoid the referendum.

No chance, if he wins the election, there will be no coup.

Dally wrote:

In my opinion, it's just a cynical ploy to stop the drift of supporters to UKIP, appease back-benchers and differentiate themselves from Labour.

But I agree with that bit.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:26 pm  

El Barbudo wrote:

... But I agree with that bit.

Same here.

Mind, it smacks of desperation, given that the next scheduled general election is more than two years away, to already be trying to bribe a portion of the electorate.

It's interesting seeing that business is split between those who see the long-term risks as outlined by yourself in this thread, whereas others are presumably so short-sighted that all they're thinking about is being able to exploit their workforce ever more.

One wonders if the latter are from the same group that begged Gideon to cut and cut and then cut some more, promising that they would create absolutely millions of new jobs.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:46 pm  

Mintball wrote:

Same here.

Mind, it smacks of desperation, given that the next scheduled general election is more than two years away, to already be trying to bribe a portion of the electorate.

It's interesting seeing that business is split between those who see the long-term risks as outlined by yourself in this thread, whereas others are presumably so short-sighted that all they're thinking about is being able to exploit their workforce ever more.

One wonders if the latter are from the same group that begged Gideon to cut and cut and then cut some more, promising that they would create absolutely millions of new jobs.

Business is spolit on a self-interest basis. Big business likes it because more "red tape" prevents smaller businesses competing with them as small businesses do not have the staff, wealth or infra-structure to deal with compliance. Smaller buinesses (except those niche players who already have strong export business within the EU) don't like it for the same reason.

Re: The Tories & Europe : Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:16 pm  

Kosh wrote:

It's clear from these two comments that you don't understand a fundamental aspect or trading within the EU compared to trading without.

Currently there is no duty paid on goods moved between the UK and any other EU nation. Should we leave the EU, this would no longer be the case - i.e. a duty tariff would apply to all goods entering and leaving the UK just as it does presently with all other non-EU countries. At a stroke this would add somewhere between 2 and 10% to the price of all these goods, with the obvious effect of increasing price inflation in the UK (increased cost of imports) and reducing the competitiveness of our exporters.

It would also complicate VAT to a lesser extent..

So you fully understand EU and non EU trading do you? mmm....

1. Consider that "90% of British exports would not face tariffs and even for those that do, average tariff levels are now generally low. They are charged only on trade in goods and not on services or income.

2. Our trade in goods is below 50% of our total trade and the cost of collecting these low tariffs on goods is more than the cost of tariff collected overall. Some notable sectors could in theory be subject to significant tariffs (eg. cars at around 8%) but reciprocal tariffs would damage EU exporters too, so the incentive for the mutual amelioration of tariffs is strong. This does however depend on negotiating a new positive relationship with the EU" which is what the PM is setting out to do.

Since the time we joined the EEC and after several General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) tariffs are now generally much lower. Many are negligible, or have been eliminated altogether. So today, customs unions are becoming less and less relevant. There are no substantial customs unions anywhere in the developed world except for the EU, which in global terms looks more and more anachronistic. It is interesting to note that neither ASEAN nor NAFTA are customs unions.

Kosh wrote:

In addition to the direct effect on prices, the additional cost and complexity will be a disincentive to overseas companies who use the UK as their bridgehead into Europe. And as we have seen, other EU countries will be only too happy to welcome these companies instead..

Honda recently announced it is making 800 redundancies at its Swindon plant. A Honda spokesman said, "sustained conditions of low demand in European markets make it necessary to realign Honda's business structure."

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders have forecast business to remain flat in 2013. Paul Everitt, the chief executive of the SMM&T said "There are difficulties in Europe, there is no doubt about it. But the market in the UK has held up reasonably well."

In contrast to this position (the Single Market) then, one might look to Jaguar Land Rover, who only two days after the Honda announcement stated that they will be creating 800 new jobs at its factory in Solihull. Why? Because demand for its luxury vehicles from countries such as China, the US and Russia is now so strong, it needed to recruit those additional staff. So, irrespective of the UK’s car-buying activity – which seemed to perform well last year, at least – a focus on the Single Market means job losses; the orientation to the rest of the world means job creation.

Kosh wrote:

None of this is 'scare stuff'. It's just factual information that anti-EU types are either ignorant of or, more likely, deliberately ignoring.

Yes it is just scare stuff and none of it based on facts.

Consider: Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, which provides for a member state to withdraw from the EU, is explicit that “the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union.”

Such agreements must conform to the principles set out in Article 3(5) which includes “free and fair trade”. This is why Jacques Delors referred to “a free-trade agreement” as an option for a new UK-EU relationship in his comments in December.