Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:02 pm  

sally cinnamon wrote:

Cummings has shown an ability to plot successful campaigns, which is a different thing from successfully governing.

In terms of his ideas, I wouldn't write him off. I think he has some interesting thoughts and whilst he seems to be a man of the right in terms of 'culture war', he has grasped some things about the importance of science and education and the need to spread wealth around the country that make him a more progressive force than the Cameron/Osborne acolytes. I don't think he is in politics to suck up to the already super rich.

The interesting point will be when Cummings starts to clash with the Conservative hierachy. He isn't even a member of the Conservative party, he's just someone they use because they think he is effective and like that he is non-pc and willing to take on aspects of the establishment they don't like, the BBC, courts etc. But it seems that this whole Treasury coup was forced because Cummings wants to go far further in terms of turning on the spending taps than the Javid or the Treasury upper brass were comfortable with. If he starts throwing cash around, Conservatives will find it distasteful but they'll suck it up and go along with it, as long as they think it helps them be popular.

If a recession comes along, and the government lose popularity, then Boris will be under pressure to change direction and offer up some heads on spikes, and Cummings ability to make enemies out of everyone will mean he'll be vulnerable at that point.

Nick Timothy, Theresa May's SpAD, was another overbearing character trying to run everything from No.10, although he kept a lower profile than Cummings does. But he had the same traits of bullying/falling out with many people in the Conservative hierachy. He was sacked the day after the 2017 election, when Theresa May needed a sacrificial head on a spike and his many enemies turned on him.

I think similar may happen with Seamus Milne in Labour, particularly if they have the pretext of the EHRC report pointing to him as being a problem with interfering with antisemitism expulsions.

Alistair Campbell was exactly the same - a tyrant who took no prisoners - it is what is needed at the top of these organisations. Campbell rode on the back of engineering election victories until Iraq came along and he could no longer defend the indefensible. Him and Cummings are no different - Blair was a front as is Boris.

If you get into harder times you need agile thinkers who are prepared to react to conditions not stuck on method such as Hammond. Cummings is a bright guy he has shown his versatility and his ability to read situations - certainly out thought Milne - not that difficult really. That's what happens when you have had everything given to you on a plate e.g. Milne and you have never been in the trenches. Cummings has openly discussed the Tories shortcomings so I doubt it will be issue going forward.

Timothy turned a 30 point lead into a 1% lead he deserved to get the sack - the same cannot be said of Cummings. If we have a recession but the government is spending in areas that people like e.g. NHS/Education/Police etc they will be protected to a point - Cummings is correct you can't say end of austerity and continue with it for another 5 years that would suicide.

Brighter things on the horizon Ms Long-Bailey is catching Starmer - so being Trans will be compulsory for us all!! I ask one question if a man is convicted of crime at the trial self-determines as a women does he/she go to a woman's prison?

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:08 pm  

RfE wrote:

:roll:
Another gullible Northerner believing that the NHS is safe in Tory hands!
Good luck on the Rhinos debut- considering the NHS has been sold off by stealth with more and more contracts for services going to the private sector, I reckon best get your boots cleaned- that debut will come sooner than you think.

Of course the biggest employer in Europe is suddenly going to be sold off in the next 5 years!! and you call me gullable

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 1:10 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

Too right, Sal! Those bloody trees, converting carbon dioxide into oxygen and sustaining ecosystems. Who chuffing needs them?! Better to tarmac over everything. A Starbucks drive-thru for every town!

Absolutely let's not treat our sick or educate our kids all we need to do is plant billions of trees and everything will be great - we can have Starbucks in tree houses - what about that?

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:03 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Of course the biggest employer in Europe is suddenly going to be sold off in the next 5 years!! and you call me gullable

Not safe doesn't mean sold off though, does it ??

Unless the Tories are going to steal all of Labours policies, their fall back position has always been to reduce the size of the "state" and although Boris is currently on a post election spending spree, it wont last and you know it.

Certainly seems like there has been a change in tack so far though

[Mild Rover]

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:34 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Alistair Campbell was exactly the same - a tyrant who took no prisoners - it is what is needed at the top of these organisations. Campbell rode on the back of engineering election victories until Iraq came along and he could no longer defend the indefensible. Him and Cummings are no different - Blair was a front as is Boris.

If you get into harder times you need agile thinkers who are prepared to react to conditions not stuck on method such as Hammond. Cummings is a bright guy he has shown his versatility and his ability to read situations - certainly out thought Milne - not that difficult really. That's what happens when you have had everything given to you on a plate e.g. Milne and you have never been in the trenches. Cummings has openly discussed the Tories shortcomings so I doubt it will be issue going forward.

Timothy turned a 30 point lead into a 1% lead he deserved to get the sack - the same cannot be said of Cummings. If we have a recession but the government is spending in areas that people like e.g. NHS/Education/Police etc they will be protected to a point - Cummings is correct you can't say end of austerity and continue with it for another 5 years that would suicide.

Brighter things on the horizon Ms Long-Bailey is catching Starmer - so being Trans will be compulsory for us all!! I ask one question if a man is convicted of crime at the trial self-determines as a women does he/she go to a woman's prison?

There are similarities and differences between Campbell and Cummings. Campbell was a press officer charged with selling policies and keeping the right-wing press at bay. Cummings has moved from campaign lead to policy lead.

For all that he was a pragmatist sometimes given to constructive ambiguity, Blair was the front for policies he believed in. Blairism is a term that is widely understood. Johnson doesn’t really have political convictions and is more of a pure opportunist.

There are no solutions, only choices. Cummings has chosen to empower himself by weakening the cabinet and focusing his recruitment on young, pliable staffers who serve at his pleasure. The upside is that he should be able to get poop done. The downside is that, in the absence of criticism and challenge a lot of it might be poop. He’s been accused today of being bewitched by science without understanding it, off the back of views expressed by one of his aides. Science done well (which it isn’t always), is all about questions and rigorously challenging ideas.

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 2:40 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

There are similarities and differences between Campbell and Cummings. Campbell was a press officer charged with selling policies and keeping the right-wing press at bay. Cummings has moved from campaign lead to policy lead.

For all that he was a pragmatist sometimes given to constructive ambiguity, Blair was the front for policies he believed in. Blairism is a term that is widely understood. Johnson doesn’t really have political convictions and is more of a pure opportunist.

There are no solutions, only choices. Cummings has chosen to empower himself by weakening the cabinet and focusing his recruitment on young, pliable staffers who serve at his pleasure. The upside is that he should be able to get poop done. The downside is that, in the absence of criticism and challenge a lot of it might be poop. He’s been accused today of being bewitched by science without understanding it, off the back of views expressed by one of his aides. Science done well (which it isn’t always), is all about questions and rigorously challenging ideas.

All the Cummings is doing it trying to get stuff that the Tories promised done. He will have viewed what went wrong with May and Labour and has decided that it wont happen on his watch. When you have the likes of Gaulke, Letwin, Grieve senior Tories deliberately trying to undermine the leader something needed to be done. Javid was doing much the same - it simply doesn't add up - in fighting divides parties as we have seen.

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:24 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Absolutely let's not treat our sick or educate our kids all we need to do is plant billions of trees and everything will be great - we can have Starbucks in tree houses - what about that?

There you go again with the false dilemma fallacy; when you know full well that it is entirely possible to do more than one good thing at once.

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:57 pm  

bren2k wrote:

There you go again with the false dilemma fallacy; when you know full well that it is entirely possible to do more than one good thing at once.

I'm sure it is pity you seem unable to see the sarcasm in my post - how come you myopia seems focused on me?

[Mild Rover]

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:36 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

All the Cummings is doing it trying to get stuff that the Tories promised done. He will have viewed what went wrong with May and Labour and has decided that it wont happen on his watch. When you have the likes of Gaulke, Letwin, Grieve senior Tories deliberately trying to undermine the leader something needed to be done. Javid was doing much the same - it simply doesn't add up - in fighting divides parties as we have seen.

I don’t disagree, and I don’t necessarily think it is the wrong choice.

Every approach has downsides. This approach is focused but narrow.

Re: TORY Mansion tax and pension raid ? : Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:12 pm  

Johnson likes the PM tag, he doesn’t like the scrutiny, so relying on Cummings to run the government hence he is nowhere to be seen with regards the recent floods, stayed on his freebee holiday and has left those on the cruise ship stranded.
I am afraid we are going to have to get use to this because I doubt he will change because he thinks why answer awkward questions when you can dodge and still get elected.