Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 9:50 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

And if you were a teacher, mixing with "x" number of kids, from a different range of backgrounds etc, would you be confident of avoiding the virus.
Not to mention how you get a class of 30+ kids to be socially distant in a room that was already cramped for space

There are two primary reasons for trying to get kids back to school, without adequate planning and the main one is to allow their parents to return to work.

You will notice that child minders cant yet re open, apparently it's not safe yet but, schools can - do you see the contradiction in the advice
Or that, its safe for teachers to "look after" the kids but, those same children cant visit their grandparents ? in case they pass something on to people in the "vulnerable" group

So its ok to have a few hundred kids at school but, not allow one or two to visit people that are "healthy"

With the consistent mis leading of the public and endless spinning of the truth by this Tory government, would you put your trust in them

For Year 10 Class sizes will be approximately 10 per room, with pupils going in on staggered days
Not all pupils will attend, schools are aiming to bring under privileged and ones who haven’t kept up with their timetables - this so that everyone gets back to being up to date

Pupils will primarily stay in the same rooms for all their classes with the teachers moving around. If any pupil has to move to another classroom the one they come out of will be cleaned down

All equipment to be cleaned down after any use

All a logistical nightmare, and difficult to see how it will all work out - but as the alternative is to wait for a vaccine something has to be tried

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 9:51 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Schools have had 8 weeks to plan a return for kids to school, many have been open so they will have experience of teaching children in these circumstances. How many teachers have gone down with Covid as a direct result of working in schools that are already open?

To compare child minders to state schools is laughable as you well know.

Given the vast majority of deaths have occurred within the elderly community is quite right that this group is protected so most people can see why keeping kids away from their grandparents forms part of a logical strategy to protect the elderly.

I completely agree with you about the quality of the message - but we don't live in a nanny state - as much as you would like and people have to take individual responsibility for their actions but there also needs to be consequences to those actions

It's perfectly reasonable for a teacher (or anyone else) to have concerns about coming into contact with lots of people who they havent been in contact with for 8 weeks.

Yes, schools have remained open, with very few pupils and they have coped pretty well but, we are talking about something a little different now.
As for teachers and staff working within schools going down with the virus, I actually dont know, do you ?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 10:24 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Yes but, the big question is when ?

Quick question Sal, if you had a hundred quid in your pocket and were a gambling man, how much of your £100 would you wager on the track and trace app being fully functional (or close to it) by the 1st June.
This has the same whiff as the 100,000 tests PER DAY that were promised, but rarely hit, by the end of May.

I absolutely understand the need to get good news out there but, the unnecessary exaggeration / spin /lies by Boris & Co is just bloody annoying and perpetuates the lack of trust in what they tell the masses.
It's no wonder parents are too scared to send their kids back to school and the teachers dont feel that they will be safe.

You do realise the app is only one part of the track and trace system, right? That traditional tried and tested methods will play just as much, if not a bigger part of the operation?

Anyway, cut them some slack. They're recruiting 25,000+ staff to run the operation. To put this in perspective, if this were a new company it would be the 12th largest employer in the UK.

Each of these contact tracer must hold a health or science related degree or have demonstrable equivalent experience or qualifications, and be registered with an appropriate health or science related professional body, and more. Those staff all then need to be trained in traditional means of track & trace as well as the app - which, let's not forget, is being built from scratch - no mean feat in itself. They also need to be trained on the workflows, processes, and approved medical/behaviour advice. They then all need access to the required software and means of communication to run what is basically a massive NHS virtual office/call centre.

I'm not sure if you've even project managed anything, but achieving something on that scale in just a couple of months is basically never done. It doesn't happen. Whether it launches on exactly 1st June isn't crucial, as long as it's around that date - just as hitting precisely 100,000 tests a day isn't really key as long as we're achieving high (and increasing) numbers of tests. I know, of course, you're hoping they'll fail.

It also depends on at least 60% of the wonderful British public downloading the app, which might be a challenge given a) too many just don't pay attention b) too many think they're above things like that c) too many claim to have "privacy concerns" d) too many just don't care e) some simply don't want to know if they should self-isolate f) some idiots won't do it 'cos it's Boris.

The science around kids returning to school in limited numbers is actually pretty robust if anyone cares to listen to the SAGE scientists explaining the roadmap, and the odds of them picking up the virus are very, very low. Do I personally think it's too early? Possibly, especially where there may be a vulnerable person in the family. But I also think the economy needs to start moving in June and the majority of parents cannot be at home if we want that to happen. It's a difficult balance, but with a COVID-experienced NHS using now tried and tested (if limited) treatments with plenty of capacity, and with social-distancing and track & trace as well as other measures in place, any spread should be limited and easier to contain, and that's the goal. That's about the best we can do pre-vaccine. We may yet end up in a spike/lockdown cycle.

The stark and inconvenient truth is that this virus is not going away. Unless we stay locked down until we have a vaccine, we're going to have to open up gradually at some point. The damage will soon overshadow any potential impact of the virus. AZ is hoping to have a vaccine available in September, but we can't put all our eggs on this being a guaranteed solution. We need to work on the basis that this is not going away for a long time and therefore at some point the majority of the population will need to get moving again while mitigating risk as best they can.

The only other solution is that NOBODY leaves their houses for a month except vital NHS workers. Nobody. No cars, no work, no non-essential deliveries, nothing. That way the virus could indeed die out. But that can't - and isn't - going to happen.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 10:42 am  

Cronus wrote:

You do realise the app is only one part of the track and trace system, right? That traditional tried and tested methods will play just as much, if not a bigger part of the operation?

Anyway, cut them some slack. They're recruiting 25,000+ staff to run the operation. To put this in perspective, if this were a new company it would be the 12th largest employer in the UK.

Each of these contact tracer must hold a health or science related degree or have demonstrable equivalent experience or qualifications, and be registered with an appropriate health or science related professional body, and more. Those staff all then need to be trained in traditional means of track & trace as well as the app - which, let's not forget, is being built from scratch - no mean feat in itself. They also need to be trained on the workflows, processes, and approved medical/behaviour advice. They then all need access to the required software and means of communication to run what is basically a massive NHS virtual office/call centre.

I'm not sure if you've even project managed anything, but achieving something on that scale in just a couple of months is basically never done. It doesn't happen. Whether it launches on exactly 1st June isn't crucial, as long as it's around that date - just as hitting precisely 100,000 tests a day isn't really key as long as we're achieving high (and increasing) numbers of tests. I know, of course, you're hoping they'll fail.

It also depends on at least 60% of the wonderful British public downloading the app, which might be a challenge given a) too many just don't pay attention b) too many think they're above things like that c) too many claim to have "privacy concerns" d) too many just don't care e) some simply don't want to know if they should self-isolate f) some idiots won't do it 'cos it's Boris.

The science around kids returning to school in limited numbers is actually pretty robust if anyone cares to listen to the SAGE scientists explaining the roadmap, and the odds of them picking up the virus are very, very low. Do I personally think it's too early? Possibly, especially where there may be a vulnerable person in the family. But I also think the economy needs to start moving in June and the majority of parents cannot be at home if we want that to happen. It's a difficult balance, but with a COVID-experienced NHS using now tried and tested (if limited) treatments with plenty of capacity, and with social-distancing and track & trace as well as other measures in place, any spread should be limited and easier to contain, and that's the goal. That's about the best we can do pre-vaccine. We may yet end up in a spike/lockdown cycle.

The stark and inconvenient truth is that this virus is not going away. Unless we stay locked down until we have a vaccine, we're going to have to open up gradually at some point. The damage will soon overshadow any potential impact of the virus. AZ is hoping to have a vaccine available in September, but we can't put all our eggs on this being a guaranteed solution. We need to work on the basis that this is not going away for a long time and therefore at some point the majority of the population will need to get moving again while mitigating risk as best they can.

The only other solution is that NOBODY leaves their houses for a month except vital NHS workers. Nobody. No cars, no work, no non-essential deliveries, nothing. That way the virus could indeed die out. But that can't - and isn't - going to happen.

I dont disagree with anything that you've posted.
My issue is that once again, The Government (in this case the PM) has promised that "a world beating track and trace system will be up and running for the 1st June" and it bloody well wont, for all of the reasons state in your post.
I'm certainly not suggesting that any of this is simple, in face, quite the opposite but, just as Matt Hancock did with his testing numbers, they are pissing before their wee comes out (again).

You will recall that our "world beating system" was supposed to be a mobile app PLUS 20/25,000 trained "trackers".
Many people have said that the app just wont be ready but, our PM is still telling us that its all going to be ready on 1st June - WHY ?

Better to say that the app is coming along well but, wont quite be ready on time but the trackers will be in place and we are making good progress.

This is my main gripe with Boris & Co
Over promising, not delivering and then waffling to cover the partial failure - something that has happened all the way through.

The pattern is clear for everyone to see and was there prior to the Tories gaining power and it doesn't look like honesty matters ??

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 10:52 am  

The vulnerable elderly group will probably not be computer savvy enough anyway to use the tracker. I for one have a basic phone for contacting people & the odd text. All my internet stuff is done on a desk top so is the app available to or even any use to me anyway considering my computer never goes mobile ?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 11:11 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

It's perfectly reasonable for a teacher (or anyone else) to have concerns about coming into contact with lots of people who they havent been in contact with for 8 weeks.

Yes, schools have remained open, with very few pupils and they have coped pretty well but, we are talking about something a little different now.
As for teachers and staff working within schools going down with the virus, I actually dont know, do you ?

If there had even a few instances we would have known about given this is such a sensitive issue.

I get the concerns but it doesn't stop them going to the supermarket or the garden centre where they will definitely be in contact with people they have never met never mind in the past 8 weeks.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 12:28 pm  

The official UK Prime Minister twitter account has issued some social distancing guidance.

Keep 2 metres apart when you go outside. That’s:
1 bed
2 benches
3 fridges
4 chairs

Where do you even start with that???

I'm guessing the fridges are standard household fridges, and not ones big enough for our glorious PM to hide in? Or is this just another Cummings dead cat to distract from something else?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Fri May 22, 2020 1:00 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

If there had even a few instances we would have known about given this is such a sensitive issue.

I get the concerns but it doesn't stop them going to the supermarket or the garden centre where they will definitely be in contact with people they have never met never mind in the past 8 weeks.

Come on Sal, I'm sure that even you're grasp of the risks are better than you are suggesting here.

Apart from the fact that in the supermarket and garden centre (although not even to most avid gardener visits their garden centre every week), it's a fair bit easier to control the distancing between yourself and others in your immediate proximity and even IF you are close to or brush a person nearby, it's for a fleeting moment, not for several hours in any given day and in a confined space (classroom) and remember it's not just the kids, its all of the people that they may have been in contact with. ie other kids, family members, plus the people that they have been in contact with etc, etc.
You will be well aware that all the usual bugs spread like mad when school terms begin, just as the covid19 will.

The government keep on telling the teachers, unions etc that they are following the science but, when asked to provide detail on the science it doesn't happen ??

If it was so easy and so safe, you or I would say, there you go, you read the "proof" and then crack on but, Boris & Co just cannot be trusted. end of.

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sat May 23, 2020 11:10 pm  

King Street Cat wrote:

The official UK Prime Minister twitter account has issued some social distancing guidance.

Keep 2 metres apart when you go outside. That’s:
1 bed
2 benches
3 fridges
4 chairs

Where do you even start with that???

I'm guessing the fridges are standard household fridges, and not ones big enough for our glorious PM to hide in? Or is this just another Cummings dead cat to distract from something else?

Is 2 metres a little too challenging for you? Christ, they try to give you lefties some guidance and you still need your backsides wiping.

Perhaps you could follow the World Health Organisation recommendation, which is 1 metre. Would that make you happier?

Re: Deepest recession in 100 year ? : Sat May 23, 2020 11:18 pm  

I think he is merely quoting what was on Johnson’s twitter account which I think would mainly be read by his supporters. It would suggest therefore that these are the ones who need their bottoms wiping which looking at the average age of the membership is probably quite accurate.