Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue May 06, 2014 10:46 am  

The Video Ref wrote:

A thing or two about qualifying as a barrister.

SNIP

An excellent summary that tallies with my experience. In addition to that, someone I know had to write off £10000 in unpaid fees as she would have been taxed on them after a certain period, even though she had no chance of getting them for the reasons you give. This after the law was changed to tax barristers on billed fees, rather than earned/paid fees.

Unfortunately the media portrayal of fat-cat barristers is now the pervading view, much like welfare "scroungers" and feckless immigrants.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue May 06, 2014 6:08 pm  

Chris28 wrote:

An excellent summary that tallies with my experience. In addition to that, someone I know had to write off £10000 in unpaid fees as she would have been taxed on them after a certain period, even though she had no chance of getting them for the reasons you give. This after the law was changed to tax barristers on billed fees, rather than earned/paid fees.

Thats pretty much in line with every other form of self employment where taxation is made on profit based on annual turnover including any outstanding creditors at year end.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue May 06, 2014 6:20 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

More and more stats are becoming available which makes you point of view a very pessimistic one. The latest GfK-NOP consumer confidence index last week showed overall confidence at its's highest level since June 2007. The optimists outnumber the pessimists about their personal financial position over the last 12 months, and about the country's prospects. This would not happen if most were feeling as grim as you and Labour suggest.

The Labour market numbers give further evidence, apart from showing the continuing strong rise in employment, they show that the benefits of the recovery are not only well spread but believe it or not the highest paid are perhaps lagging behind!

Private sector pay in the last three three months figures was up by 2% - which was ahead of CPI inflation (1.6%). The private sector accounts for 81% of employment. Of this manufacturing was up 3.2% on a year earlier, construction was up 3.1% while wholesaling/retailing/hotels and restaurants (all usually lower payers) was up by 3.5%. These not only outstripped CPI inflation but also RPI inflation (2.5%)

Interestingly finance and business pay was up just 0.1% dragged down by falling earnings in financial services - the opposite of what Labour would have you believe.

The rise in GDP is well spread between the different sectors of the economy and is benefitting the majority of people. The longer the recovery goes on, the more those benefits will spread. Of course no one can say if the recover will continue as we have the election next year with a risk of a change of government and direction and also a possible rise in interest rates.

I hope you are right, however stats on earnings are, I believe, still largly derived from quarterly surveys of a selected range of businesses by the ONS, my business was one of them and indeed one of the questions was "Are you more optomistic" which in itself is pretty meaningless because you wouldn't be investing your own money, your house, and the family horse on something that you weren't optomistic with in the first place.

It always puzzled me why the ONS relied on a survey targeted at one specific employee within the business (a random sample but one that your stats had to be based on constantly after that) and not genuine monthly income tax returns, presumably the ONS never had access to those records and presumably HMRC still don't give them access - so we're stuck with a system that measures whatever you feel like putting on the form without ever having to prove what you've just written but with the threat over your head that if you don't send it back then it was a criminal offence.

Rather amusingly the person in my business that they selected as a sample was my brother and of course we always told the truth about his earnings and optomism.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Tue May 06, 2014 10:22 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

Meaningless to you because it shows the recovery denying pessimists to be wrong - Meaningful to the majority who see a brighter future.

Its meaningless because it quantifies nothing, I would guess that confidence has been the highest since 2007 a number of times this month already, unless you back it with real figures then it means nowt.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed May 07, 2014 8:56 am  

JerryChicken wrote:

I hope you are right, however stats on earnings are, I believe, still largly derived from quarterly surveys of a selected range of businesses by the ONS, my business was one of them and indeed one of the questions was "Are you more optomistic" which in itself is pretty meaningless because you wouldn't be investing your own money, your house, and the family horse on something that you weren't optomistic with in the first place.

It always puzzled me why the ONS relied on a survey targeted at one specific employee within the business (a random sample but one that your stats had to be based on constantly after that) and not genuine monthly income tax returns, presumably the ONS never had access to those records and presumably HMRC still don't give them access - so we're stuck with a system that measures whatever you feel like putting on the form without ever having to prove what you've just written but with the threat over your head that if you don't send it back then it was a criminal offence.

Rather amusingly the person in my business that they selected as a sample was my brother and of course we always told the truth about his earnings and optomism.

The GfK-NOP consumer confidence index has been running since 1974 and is accepted and used as a barometer to show how the country is really feeling. It has been used in the past to highlight the public's worries during the recession.

You question the stats on earnings but again they are the same stats with the same methodology that Labour and the government critics have been using since 2010 to show earnings were below inflation. To now suggest these stats somehow are not vaild shows an argument that is also not valid.

If your business (or your brother's) is seeing not the benefits of the recovery and is still struggling, then it is in the minority of cases according to the stats and I hope things pick up for you. However if as you imply your brother has been pessimistic in completing his form when in fact he could have been optimistic, then this would mean the real situation is even better than I reported!

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed May 07, 2014 9:24 am  

Big Graeme wrote:

Its meaningless because it quantifies nothing, I would guess that confidence has been the highest since 2007 a number of times this month already, unless you back it with real figures then it means nowt.

The GfK-NOP index has been running since 1974 and has been used since then to show the public's real feelings and show how optimistic or pessimistic they are feeling. As results are compared it gives a guide to show trends and has been accepted by business and government. As I said - meaningless to you perhaps but not to the majority.

If you had read all of my post you would have seen I did quote real figures which backed up the Gfk-NOP index.

Here is a few more facts for you.

1. The lastest quarterly rise in GDP of 0.8% takes us within a wisker (0.6%) of its pre-crisis peak.
2. If you exclude the declining North Sea oil and gas we are already 0.4% above the pre-crisis levels.
3. If you exclude financial services (which has seen a 21% drop in activity) the GDP is about 2% up on its pre-crisis peak.
4. The double-dip recession never happened let alone a triple one as spun by Ed 'I gave away our gold' Balls-Up.

Points 2 & 3 above show the economy is recovering across the board as it has almost overcome the huge handicap of an ongoing major decline in North Sea and Financial Services revenues which were no fault of this government. That it has taken longer than predicted is really understandable given that since 2010 we have also had the perilous euro crisis and an EU in recession to contend with as well.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed May 07, 2014 10:15 am  

Lord Elpers wrote:

The GfK-NOP consumer confidence index has been running since 1974 and is accepted and used as a barometer to show how the country is really feeling.

There are many who would say the same about the Jeremy Vine Show

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed May 07, 2014 11:22 am  

cod'ead wrote:

There are many who would say the same about the Jeremy Vine Show

More like the Jeremy Kyle Show since Thatcher and successive governments since have gone out of their way to create and nurture the underclass that they can now target this countries woes upon.

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Wed May 07, 2014 6:02 pm  

Lord Elpers wrote:

The GfK-NOP consumer confidence index has been running since 1974 and is accepted and used as a barometer to show how the country is really feeling. It has been used in the past to highlight the public's worries during the recession.

You question the stats on earnings but again they are the same stats with the same methodology that Labour and the government critics have been using since 2010 to show earnings were below inflation. To now suggest these stats somehow are not vaild shows an argument that is also not valid.

If your business (or your brother's) is seeing not the benefits of the recovery and is still struggling, then it is in the minority of cases according to the stats and I hope things pick up for you. However if as you imply your brother has been pessimistic in completing his form when in fact he could have been optimistic, then this would mean the real situation is even better than I reported!

My only point was that the ONS earnings stats always have been based on voluntary declaration of earnings of a random sample of employees with no requirement to prove them, the only threat made with the quarterley form being that if you don't return it you will be prosecuted - that in itself was always enough to get my back up.

The forms could be completed with entirely made-up numbers and no-one would ever know - quite why they couldn't just ask HMRC what the personal income tax receipts were like this month is beyond me.

As always I'm sceptical about all politicians and their lies but when you know that their "facts" rely on nothing more than unsubstantiated submissions from random samples then you learn to ignore them.

More worryingly in connection with my post a couple of pages ago was the announcement yesterday that people on JSA will not be allowed to turn down an offer of employment made on a zero hours contract and will be sanctioned if they do, proof that the zero hours issue is here for the long term as a viable and approved method of employment, fine if you're not affected (I'm not and no-one in my family is) but not a good place for anyone to find themselves if they have any plans for owning a house, a loan for a car, credit card, etc, etc.

As for my business, sold it in 2007 when the market was about to fall off the cliff, now work for the organisation that I sold out to and thinking about it as I don't have a contract of employment I suppose I am on a zero hour basis too...

Re: No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! : Thu May 08, 2014 9:15 am  

JerryChicken wrote:

My only point was that the ONS earnings stats always have been based on voluntary declaration of earnings of a random sample of employees with no requirement to prove them, the only threat made with the quarterley form being that if you don't return it you will be prosecuted - that in itself was always enough to get my back up.

The forms could be completed with entirely made-up numbers and no-one would ever know - quite why they couldn't just ask HMRC what the personal income tax receipts were like this month is beyond me.:

All polls are based on samples which depend on the public being truthful. They do not pretend to be a science but show trends which usually prove to be reasonably accurate. Fortunately the majority of the British public are honest.

JerryChicken wrote:

As always I'm sceptical about all politicians and their lies but when you know that their "facts" rely on nothing more than unsubstantiated submissions from random samples then you learn to ignore them.:

As against the lies of people like your brother.

JerryChicken wrote:

As for my business, sold it in 2007 when the market was about to fall off the cliff, now work for the organisation that I sold out to and thinking about it as I don't have a contract of employment I suppose I am on a zero hour basis too...

So when you state "my business" what you don't really mean that.

Is your brother still being selected to fill in the forms?