Re: Brexit Anyone? : Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:56 pm  

Dally wrote:

If you read what I wrote rather than what you hoped I had written, you will see I said that devaluation will only work if we stop importing as much (effectively because we are poorer). The whole reason we have the largest current account of any developed country is because we are leaving above our collective means.

I did read what you wrote but, our visible trade deficit is impossible to balance due the the total lack of a UK manufacturing base.
Through the 70's and 80's this was massively off set by "invisible s" but, even this can no longer balance the account.

In the modern world, we like to trade with the counties that have the lowest labour cost and weve seen over the past 30/40 years that products have been sourced from Asia and China (plus Bangladesh).

All of the large conglomerates are under so much pressure to sell low price goods that this situation isn't going to change any time soon, (certainly not in my lifetime).

The African continent is starting to be opened up as the next "cheap" manufacturing base, which will make things interesting for China and India and Pakistan (if they have some of their tariff's lowered (post Brexit) will continue to dominate our supermarket shelves.
It's pure fallacy to expect the deficit to reduce substantially, even more futile than wanting immigration to fall.

I agree that the country should be working towards a trade balance, however, it simply cannot and will not happen.

Apart from the very well off, Nobody can afford to pay the kind of prices needed for British made commodities.
China pay around 50 USD (£30)per month to their factory workers and India even less plus, the raw materials that they convert are on their doorstep.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the UK cannot compete.

OK, we are trying to find "hi-tec" markets and with some limited success but, the volumes are just too small to make much of a dent in the deficit.

As for living above our collective means, that's a whole new can of worms and with average debt (on top of mortgage costs) now in the tens of thousands, we have another potential issue if there is any upward movement in interest rates.

We are teetering on the edge and yet 17 million people voted unwittingly for another recession.

Mr Farage & Co should be very proud of themselves but, they wont be suffering when the brown stuff hit's the fan again, it's the poor sods at the lower end of the food chain that will be hit hardest, again.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:26 pm  

Well the exodus has started in the world of finance... From the EU to London! Dutch giant ING announes relocation of traders from Amsterdam and Brussels.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Fri Oct 14, 2016 6:30 pm  

People can't afford British products? They afford German ones - people will always pay for quality. Not only that our service exports have much higher value added attached to them than old-fashioned, cheap metal bashing manufacturing. We will soon balance the current account deficit if the pound stays low for a while. The very real danger in the shortish term is that the Euro collapses and so the pound looks high against it.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:15 pm  

Dally wrote:

People can't afford British products? They afford German ones - people will always pay for quality. Not only that our service exports have much higher value added attached to them than old-fashioned, cheap metal bashing manufacturing. We will soon balance the current account deficit if the pound stays low for a while. The very real danger in the shortish term is that the Euro collapses and so the pound looks high against it.

The Germans were investing in superior technology and improving output while the UK was on strike, trying to "save" jobs in the 80's and we were left behind and they also took a different view towards their coal industry, protecting their assets.
Thatchers government made a very "simple" decision towards all manufacturing in the UK along the lines of "let the market decide" without any strategic planning, with disastrous consequences for job in the North of England and The Midlands and although her loss of patience with the Unions didn't help but, we are still suffering the consequences of this policy.

If The Brexit people are right and we suddenly and miraculously become a "Great Nation" once again, the pound will gain in value but, I think its a safe bet that is isn't going to happen.

The only way that The Euro will collapse is if France or Germany lose patience with The EU and this isn't going to happen.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:02 pm  

Dally wrote:

We will soon balance the current account deficit if the pound stays low for a while.

What does "soon" mean?

Is that a year, two, maybe five, & what happens in the meantime?

The pound has dropped by 15 - 20% against the Dollar / Euro, therefor price increases will be coming. Yet Carney has said, as long as the rise is within the parameters (whatever they are) interest rates will not increase. But he has admitted the price of food will be the first thing to rise. So basically the poorest of our society will suffer the most, & I'm sure he's o.k. with that, as are you presumably?

But the biggest twist of all is that a large percentage of the people who voted for Brexit are in that poorest category, & I thought the death of Jimi Heselden was the biggest irony.

Part of me thinks, I understand why many of the underprivileged voted how they did, life's pretty sucky, let's stick it to the man & all that.

Then another part of me thinks, their stupidity has caused their lives to get even harder - suckers!

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:03 am  

Sweeping generalisation, but I would suggest most who voted for Brexit were too thick to understand ALL the implications of how it would affect them and theirs and used the easy scapegoat "immigrants" card.
Ignorance is bliss , ignorance is a virtue. The UK is populated by blissful, virtuous people.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:14 am  

The Devil's Advocate wrote:

Part of me thinks, I understand why many of the underprivileged voted how they did, life's pretty sucky, let's stick it to the man & all that.

Then another part of me thinks, their stupidity has caused their lives to get even harder - suckers!

But when the poor have been demonised and down trodden for so long, what's another few years?

Britain has developed a real hatred for its poor over the last few years, it's become uncomfortable to witness. The default door to lay the blame at has become that of the poor. See any mention of poor people and you'll usually find the words stupid, thick, sponger and brainless as an accompaniment, see your quote above and the follow up from Leaguefan. The poor really aren't the problem, they're not the ones who are bleeding the land dry.

Their vote may or may not have been a wise move for them but at least it's woken up a few people to the fact they actually exist as real people and they're not very happy.

In all honesty, the poor will probably be the ones who adapt to a negative outcome the best. It sounds to me like the aspirational types are the ones who will suffer when their Sainsbury's shopping bill is a tenner more or they can't find an extra couple of grand for their next new Audi.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:57 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

But when the poor have been demonised and down trodden for so long, what's another few years?

Britain has developed a real hatred for its poor over the last few years, it's become uncomfortable to witness. The default door to lay the blame at has become that of the poor. See any mention of poor people and you'll usually find the words stupid, thick, sponger and brainless as an accompaniment, see your quote above and the follow up from Leaguefan. The poor really aren't the problem, they're not the ones who are bleeding the land dry.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Sat Oct 15, 2016 9:47 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

In all honesty, the poor will probably be the ones who adapt to a negative outcome the best. It sounds to me like the aspirational types are the ones who will suffer when their Sainsbury's shopping bill is a tenner more or they can't find an extra couple of grand for their next new Audi.

I'm sure the poorest will cut their cloth, they have no choice, but it's not what they voted for, they have been duped.

They were sold a vision of an utopian Britain where all the money saved by exiting the E.U. would be ploughed back into the economy, the N.H.S. would be swimming with cash, wages would rise & the North would be awash with new investment.

In reality food prices will rise, whilst wages won't & the only investment in the north will be in Fracking.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:58 am  

King Street Cat wrote:

But when the poor have been demonised and down trodden for so long, what's another few years?

Britain has developed a real hatred for its poor over the last few years, it's become uncomfortable to witness. The default door to lay the blame at has become that of the poor. See any mention of poor people and you'll usually find the words stupid, thick, sponger and brainless as an accompaniment, see your quote above and the follow up from Leaguefan. The poor really aren't the problem, they're not the ones who are bleeding the land dry.

Their vote may or may not have been a wise move for them but at least it's woken up a few people to the fact they actually exist as real people and they're not very happy.

In all honesty, the poor will probably be the ones who adapt to a negative outcome the best. It sounds to me like the aspirational types are the ones who will suffer when their Sainsbury's shopping bill is a tenner more or they can't find an extra couple of grand for their next new Audi.

Well said and the saddest part of all is that the party in the best position to defend/ help the plight of the poorer members of society is as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

There is no doubt that Farage and Boris sold the country a pup and the big mistake for "remain" was having the extremely well off Cameron fronting the debate which, instantly made the hard working folk of the UK want to stick two fingers up to him.
Sadly, very sadly, far from utopia, people have unwittingly voted themselves a poorer standard of living.

Farage and Johnson wont give a tinker's toss if it costs them a "bit extra" but, those at the bottom of the ladder, already being squeezed the hardest will suffer the most.