[Bullseye]

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:08 am  

If she gets in again with a similar majority it's a long way from what she was aiming for when she called the election and a long way from the mandate she needs.

She'll end up a hostage to the whims of the right of the party and the right of the press just like her predecessor, and all that before the biggest negotiation this country has had for 40+ years.

It's a mess.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:14 am  

In a move that the right wing pres would have exploded about, May cynically announced a general election that the Tories would have had months to plan. The opposition parties have had a couple of weeks to put together & finalise their plans. Even then the Tories have not had the bottle or honesty to put a costed plan together. They have been a disaster. There was an argument that the election should be postponed after Manchester & London. I think that extended time would have been the end for the Tories as their campaign unfolded & Corbyn's star continued to rise.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:26 am  

Sal Paradise wrote: Labour's spending plans simply don't add Not quite as straightforward as that - they do, with some assumptions about tax take and economic growth. It's interesting that the proposed CT rate would still see it below the level of 2010, and it would still be amongst the lowest in the G20. We can agree however that the Tory campaign has been an absolute shambles; if it isn't being thrown deliberately to try to somehow create the conditions to reverse the disastrous Brexit result, then it's been a colossal miscalculation on their behalf. It seems they thought their position was so utterly unassailable, that they could launch a vague, uncosted manifesto, and have their campaign fronted by someone with the charisma of a wet fish, robotically repeating banal catchphrases whilst refusing to engage with the electorate, and that would be sufficient. So woeful has Mrs May's performance been, that Rudd and Johnson are already jockeying for the job that will be available if she loses and is ousted - which has become a very real possibility thanks to an unexpectedly brilliant campaign from Labour; Diane Abbot aside of course - who has today been removed from campaigning due to 'ill health,' which is handy, because she's consistently been the weakest link.

Sal Paradise wrote: Labour's spending plans simply don't add Not quite as straightforward as that - they do, with some assumptions about tax take and economic growth. It's interesting that the proposed CT rate would still see it below the level of 2010, and it would still be amongst the lowest in the G20. We can agree however that the Tory campaign has been an absolute shambles; if it isn't being thrown deliberately to try to somehow create the conditions to reverse the disastrous Brexit result, then it's been a colossal miscalculation on their behalf. It seems they thought their position was so utterly unassailable, that they could launch a vague, uncosted manifesto, and have their campaign fronted by someone with the charisma of a wet fish, robotically repeating banal catchphrases whilst refusing to engage with the electorate, and that would be sufficient. So woeful has Mrs May's performance been, that Rudd and Johnson are already jockeying for the job that will be available if she loses and is ousted - which has become a very real possibility thanks to an unexpectedly brilliant campaign from Labour; Diane Abbot aside of course - who has today been removed from campaigning due to 'ill health,' which is handy, because she's consistently been the weakest link.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:51 am  

bren2k wrote: Not quite as straightforward as that - they do, with some assumptions about tax take and economic growth. It's interesting that the proposed CT rate would still see it below the level of 2010, and it would still be amongst the lowest in the G20. We can agree however that the Tory campaign has been an absolute shambles; if it isn't being thrown deliberately to try to somehow create the conditions to reverse the disastrous Brexit result, then it's been a colossal miscalculation on their behalf. It seems they thought their position was so utterly unassailable, that they could launch a vague, uncosted manifesto, and have their campaign fronted by someone with the charisma of a wet fish, robotically repeating banal catchphrases whilst refusing to engage with the electorate, and that would be sufficient. So woeful has Mrs May's performance been, that Rudd and Johnson are already jockeying for the job that will be available if she loses and is ousted - which has become a very real possibility thanks to an unexpectedly brilliant campaign from Labour; Diane Abbot aside of course - who has today been removed from campaigning due to 'ill health,' which is handy, because she's consistently been the weakest link. Even the IFS who have destroyed the Tories plans have suggested Labour's spending plans are not deliverable - so its which expert you believe? Labour have looked better because the Tories have been so bad - its easy to go increase spending on NHS, Schools, tuition fees etc. more difficult to achieve - time will tell if the electorate actually believe Corbyn is credible. I expect Labour to win be quite a wide margin 20/30 seats overall majority - I just can't see how the Tories can get across the line.

bren2k wrote: Not quite as straightforward as that - they do, with some assumptions about tax take and economic growth. It's interesting that the proposed CT rate would still see it below the level of 2010, and it would still be amongst the lowest in the G20. We can agree however that the Tory campaign has been an absolute shambles; if it isn't being thrown deliberately to try to somehow create the conditions to reverse the disastrous Brexit result, then it's been a colossal miscalculation on their behalf. It seems they thought their position was so utterly unassailable, that they could launch a vague, uncosted manifesto, and have their campaign fronted by someone with the charisma of a wet fish, robotically repeating banal catchphrases whilst refusing to engage with the electorate, and that would be sufficient. So woeful has Mrs May's performance been, that Rudd and Johnson are already jockeying for the job that will be available if she loses and is ousted - which has become a very real possibility thanks to an unexpectedly brilliant campaign from Labour; Diane Abbot aside of course - who has today been removed from campaigning due to 'ill health,' which is handy, because she's consistently been the weakest link. Even the IFS who have destroyed the Tories plans have suggested Labour's spending plans are not deliverable - so its which expert you believe? Labour have looked better because the Tories have been so bad - its easy to go increase spending on NHS, Schools, tuition fees etc. more difficult to achieve - time will tell if the electorate actually believe Corbyn is credible. I expect Labour to win be quite a wide margin 20/30 seats overall majority - I just can't see how the Tories can get across the line.

[Bullseye]

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:22 am  

The Tory campaign may be lacklustre and negative but it'll be just enough. Remember in Scotland the "yes" campaign had all the positivity yet fell short by 10%.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:50 pm  

In a move that the right wing pres would have exploded about, May cynically announced a general election that the Tories would have had months to plan. The opposition parties have had a couple of weeks to put together & finalise their plans. Even then the Tories have not had the bottle or honesty to put a costed plan together. They have been a disaster. There was an argument that the election should be postponed after Manchester & London. I think that extended time would have been the end for the Tories as their campaign unfolded & Corbyn's star continued to rise.

Why would we delay the election??

The Torys plans were costed in the Autumn statement or have you forgotten that occurred. They aren't going to take another path. There stall is set, clear and transparent.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:03 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I would agree May has been a disaster - only know have we seen Boris where are the rest of the front bench? The Tories performance is bordering on that of Michael Foot. Corbyn has had large rallies but only in very safe Labour seats.

It could be close so that will be interesting to see - if the Tories still have an overall majority that has to be the end for Corbyn because if he could defeat such an a lack lustre opposition then he is done. It is almost as if the Tories don't want to be responsible for the Brexit deal so would be happy to lose - I can't see any other reason for their abject performance. Labour's spending plans simply don't add - that is an easy target but the Tories haven't gone there - its bizarre. Maybe the polls are telling them they have it in the bag but its she/they have been terrible

Much as I dont like the guy, IF Corbyn gets anywhere close in this election, he will stay in charge.
Despite his lack of popularity in the media, the political campaign run by Labour, from 20 points back in the polls has been excellent and because of this Corbyn will stay.
He could well say tht, if you had backed him all along, Labour would have won the election and this may be true. Although, if the Tories hadn't taken the electorate for granted, trying to be everything to everybody, they should have cleane up, with a substantially increased majority.

Regarding Brexit (and I know there is a separate thread), everything is still looking like the UK will be squeezed by the other EU members and far from the "free access", which was spouted by the leave campaign, it seems clear that we will have to either pay a substantial figure or, possibly be left on WTO terms.
Despite all of May's tough talk, its becoming blatantly obvious that she is out of her depth both at home and on the international stage and even if the Tories regain power, I dont see her lasting too long at the helm. Again, rather ironic when you consider her excuse for calling an election.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:32 pm  

Nothing Ironic about it, this is just your negative look forward based on negative thinking. There is nothing balanced about that post.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:46 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Much as I dont like the guy, IF Corbyn gets anywhere close in this election, he will stay in charge.
Despite his lack of popularity in the media, the political campaign run by Labour, from 20 points back in the polls has been excellent and because of this Corbyn will stay.
He could well say tht, if you had backed him all along, Labour would have won the election and this may be true. Although, if the Tories hadn't taken the electorate for granted, trying to be everything to everybody, they should have cleane up, with a substantially increased majority.

Regarding Brexit (and I know there is a separate thread), everything is still looking like the UK will be squeezed by the other EU members and far from the "free access", which was spouted by the leave campaign, it seems clear that we will have to either pay a substantial figure or, possibly be left on WTO terms.
Despite all of May's tough talk, its becoming blatantly obvious that she is out of her depth both at home and on the international stage and even if the Tories regain power, I dont see her lasting too long at the helm. Again, rather ironic when you consider her excuse for calling an election.

The Labour campaign is easy let's just give everyone everything its a question of credibility - its easy to make promises you know you will never have to deliver - the Lib Dems did it for years.

I completely agree the last paragraph - Gove has a lot to answer for - Boris would have won and he is on a different planet to May and he would have been more than a match for Corbyn.

Brexit has a long way to run and I doubt we will end up with WTO trading terms but I also doubt we will pay a huge bill just to sit at the table. The EU needs our money and that is our strongest bargaining tool. However I do wonder if May has lost her bottle for the fight.

Re: General Election 8th June : Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:22 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

The EU needs our money and that is our strongest bargaining tool.

Does it, it's no doubt useful, but I honestly have no idea who will suffer the most. From what I have read;
The £230 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth about 12% of the value of the British economy in 2015. It’s been at around 13-15% over the past decade.
Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in 2015.