Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:51 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

Completely agree we will be worse off initially if we leave. Its the price to be paid for leaving. If the immigration had been as it is now we would voted to remain.

There it is, in a nutshell!

All the bluster about taking back control of our laws etc, but it all boils down to immigration.

Even the Brexit poster boy has said the May / Bojo deal is actually worse than staying in the E.U.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:55 pm  

The Devil's Advocate wrote:

There it is, in a nutshell!

All the bluster about taking back control of our laws etc, but it all boils down to immigration.

Even the Brexit poster boy has said the May / Bojo deal is actually worse than staying in the E.U.

Everyone knows leaving will be worse than staying in the short term - its what the EU will become longer term and how much control you eventually give them. As I said in an earlier post it is very unlikely the EU will stop now - it will always want more influence and control - its a huge beast to feed.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:44 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

I am not say it is not happening - one things is certain he will make a shed load more money if Labour get in - the £ will collapse.

Sterling has devalued by a further 3% since Mr Alexander Johnson took office, FYI.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:40 pm  

bren2k wrote:

Sterling has devalued by a further 3% since Mr Alexander Johnson took office, FYI.

I'm not sure that you are right about the currency Bren ?

The £ would buy 1.128 when he became PM and is currently buys 1.15
and for the dollar 1.23 when he became PM and 124 today.

To be fair, the rate will have less to do with the PM and will be affected more by whether we are in the EU

The most telling time for the pound was at the time when the referendum result was announced and at that time your £ would have bought 1.20 euros and 1.43 dollars. Therefore a 7% drop against the Euro and a massive 20% fall against the dollar

Of course, none of this could be true, it's just project fear.
The plus side is that our exports become cheaper but as a massive net importer of goods, everything else goes up in price.

It's no wonder that the high street is screwed, with everyone trying to cut out the middle man and buy direct from China or India.
Again, just project fear, none of this is happening at all

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:48 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I'm not sure that you are right about the currency Bren ?

The £ would buy 1.128 when he became PM and is currently buys 1.15
and for the dollar 1.23 when he became PM and 124 today.

To be fair, the rate will have less to do with the PM and will be affected more by whether we are in the EU

The most telling time for the pound was at the time when the referendum result was announced and at that time your £ would have bought 1.20 euros and 1.43 dollars. Therefore a 7% drop against the Euro and a massive 20% fall against the dollar

Of course, none of this could be true, it's just project fear.
The plus side is that our exports become cheaper but as a massive net importer of goods, everything else goes up in price.

It's no wonder that the high street is screwed, with everyone trying to cut out the middle man and buy direct from China or India.
Again, just project fear, none of this is happening at all

What is inflation running at? yes 2% so it seems the economy is at a steady point and no one is predicting a huge hike either. The high street is struggling because property costs in this country are unrealistically high and business rates are quite simply unsupportable. This has nothing to do with Brexit we have been sourcing from China/India/SE Asia for decades - what has changed is the internet and the willingness of consumers to use that supply channel. Perhaps if businesses made that type of shopping more expensive than the high st then it might have a chance otherwise it will just become full of eat/drinking and boutique hotels.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:47 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

I'm not sure that you are right about the currency Bren

Apologies - I got that from a New Statesman article, but have just realised the date was 3rd August 2019, when they said this:

"With Boris Johnson talking up the prospect of no deal this week, the pound is off on its hell-ward journey once again, dropping around 3 per cent from €1.12 the day he took office to around €1.09 today."

It's around 1.16 today, so I guess the removal of no-deal by the HoP has prompted something of a recovery.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:19 pm  

bren2k wrote:

Apologies - I got that from a New Statesman article, but have just realised the date was 3rd August 2019, when they said this:

"With Boris Johnson talking up the prospect of no deal this week, the pound is off on its hell-ward journey once again, dropping around 3 per cent from €1.12 the day he took office to around €1.09 today."

It's around 1.16 today, so I guess the removal of no-deal by the HoP has prompted something of a recovery.

I think its more to do with the gap in the polls between the two major parties

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:40 am  

Sal Paradise wrote:

What is inflation running at? yes 2% so it seems the economy is at a steady point and no one is predicting a huge hike either. The high street is struggling because property costs in this country are unrealistically high and business rates are quite simply unsupportable. This has nothing to do with Brexit we have been sourcing from China/India/SE Asia for decades - what has changed is the internet and the willingness of consumers to use that supply channel. Perhaps if businesses made that type of shopping more expensive than the high st then it might have a chance otherwise it will just become full of eat/drinking and boutique hotels.

Do you think that inflation and interest rates are low because the ecconomy is in rude health ?

I put it to you that interest rates have fallen to the floor in order to help a dying/stagnating ecconomy and that as we just about crawl out of 10 years of austerity, there are some who believe that a fundamental change in how we trade is a good thing.
Even you now admit to the "short term" contraction in the ecconomy, post Brexit, although NOBODY is prepared to define just how long "short term" is. however to invite a contraction onto a stagnant ecconomy is just plain stupid.
It's a little bit like a pilot losing power in one engine and deciding to turn the other one off to save fuel.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:23 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Do you think that inflation and interest rates are low because the ecconomy is in rude health ?

I put it to you that interest rates have fallen to the floor in order to help a dying/stagnating ecconomy and that as we just about crawl out of 10 years of austerity, there are some who believe that a fundamental change in how we trade is a good thing.
Even you now admit to the "short term" contraction in the ecconomy, post Brexit, although NOBODY is prepared to define just how long "short term" is. however to invite a contraction onto a stagnant ecconomy is just plain stupid.
It's a little bit like a pilot losing power in one engine and deciding to turn the other one off to save fuel.

I think inflation is a reflection of a competitive economy - if you raised interest rates many will not be able to make their mortgage repayments. Our interest rates are in line with the rest of world so it would suggest we are not in a worse state than many others - if you compare us to the Germans we are doing OK.

I always said if we leave things will get worse - the unknown is: where will the EU be in 5 years time and how long will it take for the economy to be recover.

Re: Brexit Anyone? (part 4) : Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:54 pm  

Sal Paradise wrote:

if you compare us to the Germans we are doing OK.

Despite what some claim we are still mostly independent economies who just enjoy the benefits of very favourable trading. Saying another European economy is doing worse than the UK as some sort of proof that the EU is the reason is a complete straw man.

Obviously we are all linked as part of the European and global economies but what happens domestically and globally is a lot more important to how an economy fares than what happens at an EU level.

Still, whilst we're here, this is the graph - we were travelling along ok until something seismic happened in 2016, from which we have never recovered.

Sal Paradise wrote:

I always said if we leave things will get worse - the unknown is: where will the EU be in 5 years time

You keep saying this but never come up with anything other than some weird insinuation. I'm trying to work out what it is you're afraid of which will happen almost overnight.