Re: Boris Johnson : Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:54 pm  

Cronus wrote:

Big changes in language from the EU in the last few days, from frantic to positive.

Boris is telling them over and over, in no uncertain terms, that we are leaving in 3 weeks, deal or not deal. They believe him, and they are scared.

I've always maintained the EU will blink at the last moment (unless a no-deal is impossible). They simply cannot be seen to fail, resulting in an unavoidable hardening of the border in Ireland and damaging Ireland enormously economically, as well as innumerable European businesses. The EU can't negotiate a deal to protect it's members and economy? Not a good look.

In truth Varadkar has lost the plot. He approached this entirely the wrong way. He should have aligned his interests with the UK for obvious reasons, instead he chose to take the 'us vs them' approach and view the UK as the opposition rather than willing partners. He placed his bets on the UK revoking A50, a 2nd referendum or giving in to a very soft, EU-driven Brexit. Boris's hard line is scaring him witless and he know he has to move.

Meanwhile the UK is gambling on the deadline. I don't actually think Boris is necessarily bothered whether the current deal is accepted or not, so legally speaking we would be out on 31st Oct unless Boris writes to the EU and they agree an extension. There are, apparently, ways around that, which is why you're seeing hints of a mixture of EU compromise and panic. Mark my words, we will see increasingly provocative and probably insulting rhetoric up until the deadline but I think they'll continue to offer small concessions.

Why on earth would Varadkar have "aligned his interests with the UK"? The people of the Republic of Ireland would have no truck with such a thing - they are so Europhilic it would make London blush and the other EU countries have followed their policy lead in all the key areas because it's so important for them.

By the way, it's laughable, but predictable, for Brexiteers to try and paint the Irish (the Irish!) as bullies (booo hoo, they "played 'us vs them'"). Projection much? Is there no end to the extremes to which Brexiteers will go to try and claim for themselves the mantle of victims?

Anyway, a nice spin from you there of what appears to be happening today - which is the EU sticking by the red lines they've reiterated since the very start and Johnson panicking and chucking everything and anything under the bus to get a deal.

Re: Boris Johnson : Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:15 pm  

The Ghost of '99 wrote:

Why on earth would Varadkar have "aligned his interests with the UK"? The people of the Republic of Ireland would have no truck with such a thing - they are so Europhilic it would make London blush.

Anyway, a nice spin of what appears to be happening today which is the EU sticking by the red lines they've reiterated since the very start and Johnson panicking and chucking everything and anything under the bus to get a deal.

Hmmm. I must have imagined the result on 12 June 2008. Quite the swing followed. Curious. Europhiles indeed. Eire's economy has done so well in the EU, yes?

FFS, Eire's only land border is with the UK. If you don't understand why Eire should have been doing their best to ensure a positive agreement with the UK, you probably shouldn't be discussing politics.

And your interpretation of events reeks of blinkered Europhilia. The EU has been banking on the UK taking no-deal off the table, revelling in the knowledge they hold all the cards. They've been sitting back, comfy in this knowledge. Unless you've not been paying attention, this has been confirmed by insiders on both sides. Now, however, we are telling them energetically and repeatedly that the 31 Oct deadline WILL apply, deal or no deal, regardless of any idiotic amendments, and they are worried.

You think the EU will throw Eire under the bus and allow a no-deal outcome. I disagree. I think they will blink.

Re: Boris Johnson : Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:09 pm  

Cronus wrote:

You think the EU will throw Eire under the bus and allow a no-deal outcome. I disagree. I think they will blink.

So i think the problem here is you want to distinguish between "the EU" and the ROI. Whereas I pretty clearly stated above that the EU is in fact following Ireland's lead. Broadly, if it works for the Irish, it will work for the EU. There won't be any throwing the Irish under any bus apart from those who have brought this chaos upon them in the first place.

As for Irish pubic views on the EU and whether Ireland has prospered since joining the community, those don't take much finding out and they won't match whatever your agenda is.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Boris Johnson : Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:13 pm  

Cronus wrote:

Big changes in language from the EU in the last few days, from frantic to positive.

Boris is telling them over and over, in no uncertain terms, that we are leaving in 3 weeks, deal or not deal. They believe him, and they are scared.

I've always maintained the EU will blink at the last moment (unless a no-deal is impossible). They simply cannot be seen to fail, resulting in an unavoidable hardening of the border in Ireland and damaging Ireland enormously economically, as well as innumerable European businesses. The EU can't negotiate a deal to protect it's members and economy? Not a good look.

In truth Varadkar has lost the plot. He approached this entirely the wrong way. He should have aligned his interests with the UK for obvious reasons, instead he chose to take the 'us vs them' approach and view the UK as the opposition rather than willing partners. He placed his bets on the UK revoking A50, a 2nd referendum or giving in to a very soft, EU-driven Brexit. Boris's hard line is scaring him witless and he know he has to move.

Meanwhile the UK is gambling on the deadline. I don't actually think Boris is necessarily bothered whether the current deal is accepted or not, so legally speaking we would be out on 31st Oct unless Boris writes to the EU and they agree an extension. There are, apparently, ways around that, which is why you're seeing hints of a mixture of EU compromise and panic. Mark my words, we will see increasingly provocative and probably insulting rhetoric up until the deadline but I think they'll continue to offer small concessions.

While it is possible they’ve finally seen the whites of Boris’s eyes and pooped themselves, it also seems plausible that Boris has amended his offer. Which I suspect was always the plan.

At this point, it isn’t about ‘winning’, if it ever was, it is about avoiding a mutually assured poop show (MAPS). If Johnson has concocted something that meets the approval of the EU and Westminster, whether through balls out steel-eyed resolute determination, or some clever customs solution, then kudos to him.

Re: Boris Johnson : Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:31 pm  

Cronus wrote:

FFS, Eire's only land border is with the UK. If you don't understand why Eire should have been doing their best to ensure a positive agreement with the UK, you probably shouldn't be discussing politics.

And the UK's only land border is with Eire. There is obvious sense in Eire wanting a free border with NI, but by the same logic the UK should want a free border with all it's nearest overseas neighbours in Western Europe than the other major markets 4,000 miles away.

Re: Boris Johnson : Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:33 am  

It would be great to know what concessions (in either direction) were offered in either the meeting with Boris and the Irish PM or between Boris and Barnier.
Certainly something changed due to one or both of these but, it doesn't appear to have been made public.

As Irelands most important trading partner, it's just possible that Boris has "persuaded" him that Ireland need to do a little more.
Alternatively, Boris, desperate to get something back to Parliament in time for "super Saturday", has thrown himself under the proverbial bus.

Anyway, it appears that we are all entering "the tunnel" and lets see what comes out of the other end , which still has to make it through Parliament.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Boris Johnson : Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:38 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

It would be great to know what concessions (in either direction) were offered in either the meeting with Boris and the Irish PM or between Boris and Barnier.
Certainly something changed due to one or both of these but, it doesn't appear to have been made public.

As Irelands most important trading partner, it's just possible that Boris has "persuaded" him that Ireland need to do a little more.
Alternatively, Boris, desperate to get something back to Parliament in time for "super Saturday", has thrown himself under the proverbial bus.

Anyway, it appears that we are all entering "the tunnel" and lets see what comes out of the other end , which still has to make it through Parliament.

It’s probably best that it is kept quiet unless/until they have something final to present. Otherwise it’ll start getting picked apart before it is done.

From the Irish perspective I imagine the main problems, in rough order of ease of dealing with, are that the new plan (BJ v1) is not immediately operative, the effective DUP veto on implementing and continuing it, and just having customs checks at all.

The first could be solved by an extension to the post-Brexit transition period, the second was, I assume, initially put in as a tactical concession for this round of talks. The interesting one is having the Customs border at all. As it always has been. The problem is that it is essentially trinary choice - Customs Union/regulatory alignment, in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland. There’s little room for compromise on that point - one side has to give way. The other can help them out presentationally but not much more than that.

Re: Boris Johnson : Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:23 am  

Mild Rover wrote:

It’s probably best that it is kept quiet unless/until they have something final to present. Otherwise it’ll start getting picked apart before it is done.

From the Irish perspective I imagine the main problems, in rough order of ease of dealing with, are that the new plan (BJ v1) is not immediately operative, the effective DUP veto on implementing and continuing it, and just having customs checks at all.

The first could be solved by an extension to the post-Brexit transition period, the second was, I assume, initially put in as a tactical concession for this round of talks. The interesting one is having the Customs border at all. As it always has been. The problem is that it is essentially trinary choice - Customs Union/regulatory alignment, in the Irish Sea or on the island of Ireland. There’s little room for compromise on that point - one side has to give way. The other can help them out presentationally but not much more than that.

Indeed, "taking back control of our borders and immigration" is bloody difficult if there isn't a border.
Although it becomes easier when people or goods make it onto the "mainland", theoretically, the movement of both goods and services will be free accross all of Ireland and with all the good will in the world, this could only be "managed" properly with a border between the north and south.
Unless everyone is going to be tagged, all the technology in the world wont prevent people and goods being moved illegally between the two halves of Ireland and without physical checks in place, I'm not sure how the movement of goods can be controlled, in fact, I'd suggest that it's utterly impossible.
Having done a lot of business over there (north and south) for many, many years and with the culture of "palm greasing" in certain areas, "smuggling" will become rife and there will have to be some "beefed up" customs checks on this side of the water for any goods coming in.

[Mild Rover]

Re: Boris Johnson : Sat Oct 12, 2019 12:10 pm  

It is tricky, because according to this, it is currently unlawful for NI and GB to end up in different customs territories... https://mobile.twitter.com/IanDunt/stat ... 4613681152 Obviously legislation can be changed by a new vote, but it is another wrinkle BJ could have maybe have done without. Then there’s UK’s commitments under the Good Friday agreement, requiring an open border and an absence of checks. And finally Brexiteers’ expectation of / demand for a hard/non-BRINO Brexit. I don’t find May or Johnson hugely sympathetic, but I have to admit it is a knotty problem. Obviously the New Deal for Northern Ireland money might help, but how much is enough for the DUP to go with something that cuts at their very reason for existing? Or could Johnson even pivot to Labour MPs open to a softer Brexit deal? it’d put both him and them under pressure, if he did - but even I would have applaud his ‘bravery’.

It is tricky, because according to this, it is currently unlawful for NI and GB to end up in different customs territories... https://mobile.twitter.com/IanDunt/stat ... 4613681152 Obviously legislation can be changed by a new vote, but it is another wrinkle BJ could have maybe have done without. Then there’s UK’s commitments under the Good Friday agreement, requiring an open border and an absence of checks. And finally Brexiteers’ expectation of / demand for a hard/non-BRINO Brexit. I don’t find May or Johnson hugely sympathetic, but I have to admit it is a knotty problem. Obviously the New Deal for Northern Ireland money might help, but how much is enough for the DUP to go with something that cuts at their very reason for existing? Or could Johnson even pivot to Labour MPs open to a softer Brexit deal? it’d put both him and them under pressure, if he did - but even I would have applaud his ‘bravery’.

Re: Boris Johnson : Sat Oct 12, 2019 12:36 pm  

Mild Rover wrote:

Lad is on a wind up, surely?

The 100 deaths a year thing Sal, that was a pee take yeah?

What’d be the Remain equivalent? ‘As long as denying the 17.4 million leads to no more than 14 new Tommy Robinsons and 6 new Katie Hopkins...’?

Anyway, Varadkar and Johnson seem to have maybe made a little progress at least.

The point of the post is you will never get a perfect deal - it doesn't exist there are always compromises. Both sides need to agree what is important to them i.e. what they must have and what they would like to have and they are usually decided by impact on the whole - e.g. you wouldn't bet the farm but you might be willing to give in on some other elements of the deal because if it gets the deal done. The GFA maybe on of those elements that needs to be sacrificed to get the deal through for the bigger benefit of the whole?

In London the Police seem to have accepted young black people will continue to murder each other in an around East London which contains the violence into a designated area then enables them to concentrate resources into other more media-friendly activities.