Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:11 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

The point is that we have a level of trade with other nations already.
IF we end up losing export trade to the EU, where do replace this lost business.

Yes, our exports have become a little cheaper (since the value of the £ dropped) but, if our trade with the EU falls, what is the next step.

I think the EU will eventually come to the party on trade their major companies recognise they have as much if not more than us to lose and will therefore put pressure on their governments.

I work in the automotive, and we all know about the concerns of the German car industry, but what about all the component suppliers to this sector, like Carpets for Honda Civics, they currently get these from France, but they have UK plants that they could transfer the work to Heckmondwike being one.

I noticed this morning getting my dinner ready that the tomatoes and clementine’s were not Produce of Spain but were from Morocco, I don’t know if we currently have trading limits with Morocco, but when we’re out of Europe we don’t have to, don’t think Manuel Spanish tomato grower will be too pleased.

Do we still have trade agreements with the Commonwealth countries?

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:31 am  

glow wrote:

I think the EU will eventually come to the party on trade their major companies recognise they have as much if not more than us to lose and will therefore put pressure on their governments.

I work in the automotive, and we all know about the concerns of the German car industry, but what about all the component suppliers to this sector, like Carpets for Honda Civics, they currently get these from France, but they have UK plants that they could transfer the work to Heckmondwike being one.

I noticed this morning getting my dinner ready that the tomatoes and clementine’s were not Produce of Spain but were from Morocco, I don’t know if we currently have trading limits with Morocco, but when we’re out of Europe we don’t have to, don’t think Manuel Spanish tomato grower will be too pleased.

Do we still have trade agreements with the Commonwealth countries?

Just taking on board your comments about the automotive industry and you say that the carpets for Honda vehicles could be made in Heckmondwike.
Equally, the Honda vehicle could be made in Spain.
Carpetw will be somewhat lower down the list of priorities that that actual vehicle assembly and this decision may well be affected by where the cars are going to be sold. Although once out of the EU, the government could be in a position to subsidise certain industries that it wants to protect..

I dont have direct experience of trading with the commonwealth nations but, I'm involved with goods coming from China, India, Malaysia plus a host of EU countries, plus, exporting to Scandanavia, Australia, Eastern Europe and again, a host of EU countries.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:54 am  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Just taking on board your comments about the automotive industry and you say that the carpets for Honda vehicles could be made in Heckmondwike.
Equally, the Honda vehicle could be made in Spain.
Carpetw will be somewhat lower down the list of priorities that that actual vehicle assembly and this decision may well be affected by where the cars are going to be sold. Although once out of the EU, the government could be in a position to subsidise certain industries that it wants to protect..

I dont have direct experience of trading with the commonwealth nations but, I'm involved with goods coming from China, India, Malaysia plus a host of EU countries, plus, exporting to Scandanavia, Australia, Eastern Europe and again, a host of EU countries.

Of course they can move car plants but that takes years, as most suppliers have UK plants it’s far easier to move tooling for the components.

Regardless of what sector they are supplying to, do you think these host of EU countries you deal with will want to lose the UK market? And if they did do you think the likes of China India etc will be on the starting grid ready to fill the UK void?

Most of the EU is on its backside they know it and we know it, as I said they have just as much to lose as we do. Target the industries not the spouting Politician's.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:33 am  

glow wrote:

Of course they can move car plants but that takes years, as most suppliers have UK plants it’s far easier to move tooling for the components.

Regardless of what sector they are supplying to, do you think these host of EU countries you deal with will want to lose the UK market? And if they did do you think the likes of China India etc will be on the starting grid ready to fill the UK void?

Most of the EU is on its backside they know it and we know it, as I said they have just as much to lose as we do. Target the industries not the spouting Politician's.

Because of how the EU runs, they will defend their position above all else and it's very likely that there wont be any winners with this one.
I mentioned some while ago that, having voted "leave", it would be beneficial if the EU crumbled, which mat still happen after France and Germany hold their elections.
Of course, the "deal" over Brexit has a long, long, way to run and nobody knows what the outcome will be.
However, IF the UK was able to obtain some kind of free trade arrangement following Brexit, why would any of the net contributors want to remain.
For this reason, I see us being offered a mickey poor deal and we will then see just how willing the UK is to "go it alone".

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 12:19 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Because of how the EU runs, they will defend their position above all else and it's very likely that there wont be any winners with this one.
I mentioned some while ago that, having voted "leave", it would be beneficial if the EU crumbled, which mat still happen after France and Germany hold their elections.
Of course, the "deal" over Brexit has a long, long, way to run and nobody knows what the outcome will be.
However, IF the UK was able to obtain some kind of free trade arrangement following Brexit, why would any of the net contributors want to remain.
For this reason, I see us being offered a mickey poor deal and we will then see just how willing the UK is to "go it alone".

The EU Politicians will but thats why I feel we need to target the industries (the people) get them to apply the pressure within, we know how powerful the likes of French Farmers can be.

I think the EU as we know it will crumble, and go back to some kind of common market.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:48 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

What are we going to sell to these nations, no really.
Which items do the UK produces that are better or more competitive than these places already source elsewhere.

You are either mistaking the UK for an advanced economic nation selling super advanced products that nobody else in the world manufactures or, that we are a bargain basement nation that produces things so cheaply that the rest of the world cant compete.
Which one are we ?

As I recall, our manufacturing output is higher than it was in the halcyon days of the when many more were employed in the sector. So we must be setting something!

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:54 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Just taking on board your comments about the automotive industry and you say that the carpets for Honda vehicles could be made in Heckmondwike.
Equally, the Honda vehicle could be made in Spain.
Carpetw will be somewhat lower down the list of priorities that that actual vehicle assembly and this decision may well be affected by where the cars are going to be sold. Although once out of the EU, the government could be in a position to subsidise certain industries that it wants to protect..

I dont have direct experience of trading with the commonwealth nations but, I'm involved with goods coming from China, India, Malaysia plus a host of EU countries, plus, exporting to Scandanavia, Australia, Eastern Europe and again, a host of EU countries.

Honda make a disproportionate % of their European sales in the UK. They would be mad to shift the whole lot out.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:33 pm  

Dally wrote:

Honda make a disproportionate % of their European sales in the UK. They would be mad to shift the whole lot out.

Whatever the change, there wont be a mad exodus in either direction and neither will trading patterns change overnight.
However, If Honda, just as an example, produce something in the UK and the terms become less favourable, they would make a strategic move to help their business.
Incidentally, I seem to remember our current government making various promises to Nissan, along the lines of trade with the EU not becoming any less favourable but, now that Mrs May is morphing into a poor mans Thatcher, I dont know if that "promise" will hold firm.

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:42 pm  

wrencat1873 wrote:

Whatever the change, there wont be a mad exodus in either direction and neither will trading patterns change overnight.
However, If Honda, just as an example, produce something in the UK and the terms become less favourable, they would make a strategic move to help their business.
Incidentally, I seem to remember our current government making various promises to Nissan, along the lines of trade with the EU not becoming any less favourable but, now that Mrs May is morphing into a poor mans Thatcher, I dont know if that "promise" will hold firm.

I think it will. They have no doubt promised a tax cut if the EU don't play ball.

Large companies locate for a number of economic reasons. Lower tax rates and a more flexible work force (easier to hire and fire) are major competitive e advantages the UK could enjoy over the EU. Outside the EU we would not be bound be EU state aid rules (although I am not sure whether there are WTO constraints?)and may be able to subsidise to our hearts content and attract new business as well as retain old. These are powerful tools that as May hinted could be part of an arsenal to force real change in the EU and cause its existing structure and so called social model to be crushed into tiny pieces. Yes, they could retaliate but that would mean the UK was right all along!

Re: Brexit Anyone? : Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:12 pm  

I know a fair few people, mainly OAPs, who voted purely on the grounds of saving the NHS and couldn't care less about either the single market or immigration. Remove those who were duped by the £350 million to the NHS claim and suddenly the majority vanishes (maybe?).

Throw in the non political Governor of the Bank of England telling us about the financial crisis and the leader of the western world telling us we wont be trading with the US and you have the majority back, but you wont see that through your one eye will you. Have some humility.