The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:07 pm  

Ok, this is a bit long winded so apologies. However, we have new owners, some players and a quality coach. We also have -12 start and 2 relegation places to avoid. Lets look at how we might achive that as its easy to get too despondant when we're messing around in minus figuires. Ive had a look at the fixtures for 2017, and the relegation places for 2016, made some assumptions and guesses and came up with this;

Last year Workington were relegated on 15, Whitehaven were relegated on 17, Oldham survived on 20. So lets aim for 20 points after 30 games to give us a realistic chance of survival.

Lets assume we lose home and away to last years top 4 (HKR/London/Batley/Fev)
Lets assume we beat home and away our possible direct rivals for the drop (Oldham/Rochdale/Sheff/Swinton)
Lets assume we split the games 1 win 1 loss to the rest (Dews/Halifax/Toulouse)

Some of these teams and results will be interchangable, but you get the logic for assumming defeat to quality teams and the need to beat the teams also trying to avoid the drop.

Using those assumptions we get these possible results (actual results may vary );

Hull KR v Bradford Bulls L
Bradford Bulls v Rochdale Hornets W
Swinton Lions v Bradford Bulls W
Bradford Bulls v Toulouse Olympique W
London Broncos v Bradford Bulls L
Bradford Bulls v Batley Bulldogs L
Bradford Bulls v Dewsbury Rams W
Oldham RLFC v Bradford Bulls W
Bradford Bulls v Sheffield Eagles W
Bradford Bulls v Halifax RLFC W
Featherstone Rovers v Bradford Bulls L
Toulouse Olympique v Bradford Bulls L
Sheffield Eagles v Bradford Bulls W
Bradford Bulls v London Broncos L
Bradford Bulls v Hull KR L
Dewsbury Rams v Bradford Bulls L
Bradford Bulls v Featherstone Rovers L
Rochdale Hornets v Bradford Bulls W
Bradford Bulls v Oldham RLFC W
Halifax RLFC v Bradford Bulls L
Bradford Bulls v Hull KR L
Batley Bulldogs v Bradford Bulls L
Bradford Bulls v Swinton Lions W

This gives us 11 wins, 22 points, taking into account the -12 ending the regular season on 10 points.
Probably bottom, but in touch of our immediate rivals.

In the playoffs, lets assume we get better as the season goes on as players and coach bed in, and given that we will be playing by definition the poorer teams in the league like oursleves, we then look to pick up 5 wins from 7 in the playoffs;

Bottom 8 playoffs possible teams
1 Dewsbury Lose
2 Halifax Lose
3 Toulouse win
4 Oldham win
5 Swinton win
6 Sheffield win
7 Rochdale win

This gives us another 10 points, 20 for the season and possible survival.
Whats crucial is we beat the teams that are probably going to be in the bottom 8.
What does go against us is having a lot of our must win games in the first half of the regular season, we need to hit the ground running - a problem with a scratch squad.

And at least with this logic, whatever happens on the scoreboard in week 1 at HKR, in my world at least we'll still be on target for survival!
Thoughts?
Is it mission impossible,mission improbable or mission possible? My point is that we can (and will) lose quite a few games, some probably heavily, and still have a chance of surving in the last couple of weekends of the 2017 season. I think its posssible.

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:14 pm  

Looks good to me.
Now just send a copy to Cha-Lo and the players so that everyone knows the plan.

Are any bookies taking bets on us staying up?

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:22 pm  

It will be interesting to look back on this post at the end of the season. I wonder how close to reality it actually gets?

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:40 pm  

Perfect.

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:41 pm  

RagingBull wrote:

It will be interesting to look back on this post at the end of the season. I wonder how close to reality it actually gets?

If we're relegated by June I'll delete it and deny all knowledge it ever excisted!

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:41 pm  

You'll beat HKR.
We lost tonight to your poorer rivals 30-4.
The end is nigh :').

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:42 pm  

Hmm, I'll be honest. I think we will beat Batley and Fev. And I also think Toulouse will be very tough.

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:51 pm  

Bulls Boy 2011 wrote:

Hmm, I'll be honest. I think we will beat Batley and Fev. And I also think Toulouse will be very tough.

Was going to say, i think you'll struggle against Toulouse h/a.
Don't fancy us away Easter Monday at their gaffe either.

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:51 pm  

Bulls Boy 2011 wrote:

Hmm, I'll be honest. I think we will beat Batley and Fev. And I also think Toulouse will be very tough.

Like I said, some will be interchangable, it was more about the overall logic rather than picking an accumulater.

Re: The Road to Avoiding Relegation 2017 : Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:56 pm  

After everything that's happened it would be a monumental effort to do the double over fev, batley, dewsbury and London, even Swinton look the real deal this season.