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   WWW.RLFANS.COM • View topic - Chances of promotion
What odds would tempt you to put £1 on ANY Championship team being promoted this season?::

Evens
2
3%
2/1
4
5%
5/1
5
7%
10/1
2
3%
20/1
10
13%
50/1
14
19%
100/1
9
12%
None - it won't happen, no chance whatsoever
29
39%
 
Total votes : 75
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:52 am  
Bull Mania wrote:
I agree it will be incredibly difficulty to turn it on like a tap.

However if you whine and moan about the system (which I think has crept into the team from what Lowes said last year) then you'll get burned. No coincidence that both Lowes and Tony Smith moaned about the Easter schedule in the media and both lost.

At the end of the day we hammered Salford, Leigh were comfortably beating Hull KR but i think their inexperience lost then that game rather than the speed of the ruck. They also only just lost to Wakey by a point I think. And part timers Halifax beat full timers Leigh and Bradford as well as pushing Widnes all the way.

Attitude can take you a long way and if we had the spirit and attitude of Halifax we would have a good chance of promotion.

You think Halifax moan that they have a fraction of the cap of Leigh and Bulls or the fact they have to do a weeks graft while the Bulls and Leigh train full time? No they roll their sleeves up and got stuck in and ran harder than us and tackled harder than us and got a victory over both in crucial games.


There's undoubtedly a little truth in all that BM, but most of those upsets only took place when positions were safe, though I think our Salford result was a glorious exception! The only totally 'crucial' game against a higher side was the MPG, where the SL club knew their livelihoods were on the line, any lack of spirit, or thoughts of taking it easy, ended straight away and it was full on. It was a credit to us that we made such a game of it, to be right.

As I said before, if we manage to overcome the odds and take a win, I'll be cheering with the rest, but it doesn't change the fact that the odds against are substantial, and it will take more than simply trying to 'out spirit' the SL side.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:35 pm  
Bulliac wrote:

As I said before, if we manage to overcome the odds and take a win, I'll be cheering with the rest, but it doesn't change the fact that the odds against are substantial, and it will take more than simply trying to 'out spirit' the SL side.


One step at a time we need to start by learning how to "out spirit" championship sides first
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:30 am  
Nil, not just us, Leigh have the best chance and i think they will struggle, if Leeds are in the bottom 4 (which i doubt) at the end of the season, there is no way they will get relegated, the RFL will see to that.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:36 am  
Northernrelic wrote:
One step at a time we need to start by learning how to "out spirit" championship sides first

Agreed, this squad has the quality to top the championship if they get their act together but promotion seems way beyond any of the championship clubs. The whipping boys of last years SL are long gone. The intensity of games between the SL 'favourites' for the middle 8s and their performances seems to have gone up a couple of notches. I just can't see where the improvement will come from during the season, from any championship team, to close the gap.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:41 am  
Northernrelic wrote:
One step at a time we need to start by learning how to "out spirit" championship sides first

To be fair, we're still the 'big super Bulls' to all these teams we're playing, and much as we know exactly where we are, it hasn't dawned on some of our opponents yet. The problem for us is that they only have to get up for their 'cup-final' twice a season whilst we have to do it every week-end and the truth is no team can 'peak', physically or mentally, every seven days - it doesn't work like that, unfortunately.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:45 am  
fifty50 wrote:
Agreed, this squad has the quality to top the championship if they get their act together but promotion seems way beyond any of the championship clubs. The whipping boys of last years SL are long gone. The intensity of games between the SL 'favourites' for the middle 8s and their performances seems to have gone up a couple of notches. I just can't see where the improvement will come from during the season, from any championship team, to close the gap.


I'd be more inclined to agree with your first point if we'd sorted out the half-back problem, to be honest.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 9:35 am  
zapperbull wrote:
Nil, not just us, Leigh have the best chance and i think they will struggle, if Leeds are in the bottom 4 (which i doubt) at the end of the season, there is no way they will get relegated, the RFL will see to that.


This is the range of league points per game over the summer era to fit in the relevant positions of the new structure. Regular season only. No playoffs, no Super 8s, etc. I've included Top Four just to divide things up a bit. It doesn't become relevant until the 8s are well under way.

Image

(Similarity of these colours to those of any team, alive or dead, is purely coincidental).

Here's how they're currently doing:

Image

Let's say they need to hit 0.8 league points per game to avoid the bottom four. They need eight wins from their remaining 14 regular season games, and that still might not be enough.

It's not going to happen. Leeds are pretty much in the M8s already. Comeback of all time if they're not. I agree they're not getting relegated. Every year there'll be a team there where everyone wonders how they got there, and who go on to not lose a game. Last year Widnes. To my present shame I was looking for a price on it being Warrington this year before the start of the season.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 9:38 am  
Incidentally, notice the PPG to finish top is reducing. And the distance from there to eighth is getting closer.

Such a shame the salary cap is a nonsensical failure in all ways otherwise we might have an explanation for that. We'll just have to settle for that's how it is, innit?
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 11:23 am  
I think Leeds being in the bottom 4 could benefit us. They're not going to be anywhere near relegation and likely top the 8. But Bradford always lift their game and we've done quite well, particularly at Headingly in recent seasons considering the position the club's been in. Strangely I'd say we have a better chance of beating Leeds than Hull KR/Wakey just because of the derby effect.

The only positive for me at the moment is nothing is decided yet. An SL club might have an injury crisis or have a poor run of form.

Bulls and Leigh aren't playing well because both know that these games don't really matter. Although our problems run much deeper than just that. But we have got time to sort it out. Whether we do or not is another matter. Also the championship is stronger this year.
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Re: Chances of promotion : Sun Apr 03, 2016 11:34 am  
Bulliac wrote:
I'd be more inclined to agree with your first point if we'd sorted out the half-back problem, to be honest.

I just can't buy in to the desperate need for a 'recognised' SH, its a real insult to Danny Addy. Where is there a SH in the championship who can run rings round him, there just isn't one. Looking round SL clubs a have struggled to find a British SH and have ended up with overseas to solve their problem. We can't go down that road so we need to solve it by better utilising what we have and making improvements in other areas.
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