Re: A Bridge Too Far : Wed May 14, 2014 4:14 pm  

iirc FA did say that some of his predictions could be seen as controversial. and he kept the spreadsheet so simple that any errors would be obvious. So it is down to what he thinks v what anyone else thinks, in the absence of the link to his sheet, looking a the fixtures list i would go for 12 more points myself, but a remote probability for 18 - ie we sign two experienced fit meat and potato props, all injuries clear up instantly and we get no more, and all injured players hit match sharp form and fitness in their first game back... and Gale plays consistently well (tho a the preceeding conditions would help that).

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Wed May 14, 2014 4:20 pm  

The "Fat Lady" has sung, packed her bags and moved on to the next venue I'm afraid! Too much time has passed with us in special measures, limbo and unable to strengthen the squad. Miracles and rain dances won't help us now, the only luck we get is "Bad".

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Thu May 15, 2014 7:43 am  

With the squad we had after the Hull friendly I was feeling quite optimistic, but loosing the two props and Sammut - as I am sure our friends at Wakefield knew made our task infinitely harder. Still we must live in hope while there is still a chance.

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Mon May 19, 2014 7:01 pm  

Half way through the season and we are where we are. The points appeal is unlikely to return more that 2. Our points difference is now so bad that it virtually rules out another 2 points. You would expect that the teams we are hoping to catch up are likely to win possibly three matches each in the rest of the season and that would leave us 7 victories from safety. Which 7 victories do you predict? We've got to be looking at Hull,Salford,London,Wakefield. Find it difficult myself to find 3 more.

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Mon May 19, 2014 7:26 pm  

Catalans are beatable and we have them twice. Wouldn't rule out wins against widnes and hull kr either. And there's always a bizarre win or two that no one predicts.

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Mon May 19, 2014 7:42 pm  

The players simply have to perform in France this weekend. It sounds like we will have a few players back in the pack which will be a huge boost. Catalan on their home turf are a much tougher prospect though so our discipline will need to be good and errors at a minimum. It would be nice to head into the Wakefield game with the opportunity of cutting the gap to 4 points (assuming they don't spring a surprise result v Wire).

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Mon May 19, 2014 8:35 pm  

As it stands and ignoring the points hearing - we need 5 wins (or 4 and a draw) to go above Wakey - presuming they won nothing. If we guess Wakey have an exact same 2nd half of the year as they did the 1st, that's four more wins, meaning to be in with a shout we have to win 9 of the last 14 - that's top 4 form!!

Realistically I think it'll be all over by the end of June - practically if not mathematically. I hate being negative about the club - but to be honest the more the weeks go past I just think "the sooner, the better"

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Tue May 20, 2014 1:10 am  

rugbyreddog wrote:

Half way through the season and we are where we are. The points appeal is unlikely to return more that 2. Our points difference is now so bad that it virtually rules out another 2 points. You would expect that the teams we are hoping to catch up are likely to win possibly three matches each in the rest of the season and that would leave us 7 victories from safety. Which 7 victories do you predict? We've got to be looking at Hull,Salford,London,Wakefield. Find it difficult myself to find 3 more.

I am not trying to convince you, though. You miss the whole point of the spreadsheet, which is simply for anyone to predict all the results. No more. THEN see what that would leave you with.

If all we did win was H S L and W then we would very emphatically deserve to go down, wouldn't we?

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Tue May 20, 2014 1:34 am  

Bets'y Bulls wrote: 18???? You do realise you only get 2 for a win don't you????? Well, yes, I do. What is it that you are finding so hard to come to terms with? PAC wrote: Those points totals are impossible !!!!! In what way? Bulliac wrote: No, I think it's something worked out with FA's relegation spreadsheet - though I'd guess the 18 points is something related to some dodgy conditional formatting or badly set up macros rather than anything else. Well, I'm hoping that's what it is... Er, no, it's the points from the games the outcomes of which I, er, predicted. martinwildbull wrote: iirc FA did say that some of his predictions could be seen as controversial. and he kept the spreadsheet so simple that any errors would be obvious. So it is down to what he thinks v what anyone else thinks Absolutely. Although it was pretty easy to predict that one or two instead of "getting" it would get all arrsey martinwildbull wrote: in the absence of the link to his sheet, looking a the fixtures list i would go for 12 more points myself, but a remote probability for 18 - ie we sign two experienced fit meat and potato props, all injuries clear up instantly and we get no more, and all injured players hit match sharp form and fitness in their first game back... and Gale plays consistently well (tho a the preceeding conditions would help that). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... sp=sharing Go on Martin! You know you want to! FWIW here is the latest version: Wigan 45 Leeds 44 St. Helens 42 Hudds 34 Warrington 33 Castleford 27 Hull FC 25 Widnes 25 Salford 24 Catalans 20 Hull KR 18 Wakefield 17 Bradford 16 London 2

Bets'y Bulls wrote: 18???? You do realise you only get 2 for a win don't you????? Well, yes, I do. What is it that you are finding so hard to come to terms with? PAC wrote: Those points totals are impossible !!!!! In what way? Bulliac wrote: No, I think it's something worked out with FA's relegation spreadsheet - though I'd guess the 18 points is something related to some dodgy conditional formatting or badly set up macros rather than anything else. Well, I'm hoping that's what it is... Er, no, it's the points from the games the outcomes of which I, er, predicted. martinwildbull wrote: iirc FA did say that some of his predictions could be seen as controversial. and he kept the spreadsheet so simple that any errors would be obvious. So it is down to what he thinks v what anyone else thinks Absolutely. Although it was pretty easy to predict that one or two instead of "getting" it would get all arrsey martinwildbull wrote: in the absence of the link to his sheet, looking a the fixtures list i would go for 12 more points myself, but a remote probability for 18 - ie we sign two experienced fit meat and potato props, all injuries clear up instantly and we get no more, and all injured players hit match sharp form and fitness in their first game back... and Gale plays consistently well (tho a the preceeding conditions would help that). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... sp=sharing Go on Martin! You know you want to! FWIW here is the latest version: Wigan 45 Leeds 44 St. Helens 42 Hudds 34 Warrington 33 Castleford 27 Hull FC 25 Widnes 25 Salford 24 Catalans 20 Hull KR 18 Wakefield 17 Bradford 16 London 2

Re: A Bridge Too Far : Tue May 20, 2014 6:03 am  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

I am not trying to convince you, though. You miss the whole point of the spreadsheet, which is simply for anyone to predict all the results. No more. THEN see what that would leave you with.

If all we did win was H S L and W then we would very emphatically deserve to go down, wouldn't we?

Think you may have tunnel vision on the spreadsheet thing. I have not seen it. I'm just being an old fashioned supporter that looks at the games played and the games to come.