Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:55 am  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

Sorry to disappoint, but since last season (when I even did an illustrative playoffs table to explain my thinking) I worked out and have repeatedly said, that the only realistic - if still unlikely - route was to finish in the auto promotion spot. It is long odds against, but is possible (if you can beat at least one SL club plus all your Championship opponents) simply because other SL-v-SL results might all go your way.

My beef about the playoffs has been and remains that barring a Wakey-style meltdown no Championship team is ever going to beat a SL club in the MPG. And even if once a flood it did, that would just allow the RFL to "validate" their bogus promotion playoffs and claim if you're good enough etc. When in fact the dice are so loaded it's not even funny.

I agree with you FA and did so last season that to get automatic promotion is an option that requires a Championship team to win 5 games. It doesnt matter what else happens, 10 points pretty much guarantees you a place. I do not agree with you that the RFL have tried to conceal this hidden route to promotion, as it clearly shows that a Championship team, having beaten two SL sides, deserves a go at more of them and validates the process, much more than the MPG.

What I and clearly other posters find difficult to understand about your position is that you seem to be saying that it is easier to gain promotion by beating two SL sides than by beating one in the MPG. Wakefield did not melt down in the MPG last season, they beat us. So why is it easier to get automatic promotion than it is to win the MPG?

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:09 pm  

Success next year should include:-

1. No WUP's or stories about people being paid late
2. All the squad makes some positive contribution, no one is brought in and doesn't see the light of day ever again
3. In the 4 and challenging for 2nd as a minimum (whether we can really challenge for no 1. depends who comes down, if its Hudds, & Davey continues to fund them, they should be the Leigh for 2017, Salford or HKR maybe different dependant on support from owners)
4. We are competitive in the middle 8's - games go into final quarter and we're still in with a chance
5. We show pride in defence every game
6. No repeats of debacles like Featherstone where it seemed like the players couldn't give a to55 (I don't want to believe that, but having witnessed it with my own eyes.....)
7. 2 of the juniors promoted into the squad for next year, nail down a first team place

From where we've been for the last 3-4 years, would be a step in the right direction, is it too much to ask.

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:41 pm  

martinwildbull wrote:

I agree with you FA and did so last season that to get automatic promotion is an option that requires a Championship team to win 5 games. It doesnt matter what else happens, 10 points pretty much guarantees you a place. I do not agree with you that the RFL have tried to conceal this hidden route to promotion, as it clearly shows that a Championship team, having beaten two SL sides, deserves a go at more of them and validates the process, much more than the MPG.

What I and clearly other posters find difficult to understand about your position is that you seem to be saying that it is easier to gain promotion by beating two SL sides than by beating one in the MPG. Wakefield did not melt down in the MPG last season, they beat us. So why is it easier to get automatic promotion than it is to win the MPG?

I just assumed that it is easier to win 5/7 (71%) games over the course of 8 weeks - or 2/4 (50%) if you want to spin out the 4 SL clubs? Rather than having to win 1/1 (100%) from the mpg. The SL club will always the advantage in a winner takes all single game. It could be psychological, it could be game speed, it could be refs, intensity or all of the above. But in a 7 game mini league, those factors seem to be levelled out. I don't have any evidence based proof of any of this, it's just what it seemed to be whilst watching over the last year

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:11 pm  

Success for me next season is s top 4 finish. With a SL club probably coming down top 2 would be a triumph. Also 80 minute performances and maximum effort a must. Finally should we fail to make SL next year another success would be keeping the youngsters. Without those future stars/ a sugar daddy we could be stuck at this level for quite sometime or(hate to say this)sink lower/fail to exist

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:18 pm  

martinwildbull wrote:

I agree with you FA and did so last season that to get automatic promotion is an option that requires a Championship team to win 5 games. It doesnt matter what else happens, 10 points pretty much guarantees you a place. I do not agree with you that the RFL have tried to conceal this hidden route to promotion, as it clearly shows that a Championship team, having beaten two SL sides, deserves a go at more of them and validates the process, much more than the MPG.

What I and clearly other posters find difficult to understand about your position is that you seem to be saying that it is easier to gain promotion by beating two SL sides than by beating one in the MPG. Wakefield did not melt down in the MPG last season, they beat us. So why is it easier to get automatic promotion than it is to win the MPG?

IIRC my calculation was centred on the C club being able to beat ONE SL club, of its 2 home fixtures against SL clubs. It assumed no C club was likely to win an away fixture against an SL club. And unlikely to win both its home fixtures against SL clubs. As such, it could get 8 points and could finish 3rd on points difference.

Leigh have exceeded all expectations (well, mine, anyway) in beating 2 SL sides, one away, and kudos to them for that.


But from the point of view I was discussing, namely the Bulls, I figured that if by taking 1 SL scalp you could get 8 points then that was the route. What you have to take into account is that in our case assuming Leigh won the Championship and we were 2nd, then we get 2 home games against SL teams that finished 9 and 11, and away against 10 and 12. The idea was that Home to 11 (and I suppose as an alternative, although stretching a point) away at 12, were the non-delusional target games.

The problem in even thinking about getting 10 points - in my scenario - was that that involves not only beating TWO SL teams - but also winning Away at Leigh. But 8 points looking theoretically "doable".

If of course a team wins the Championship, then the Away Championship fixture is against the team that finished in C4 which is a much easier task. However for that team to get 10, still must include either winning all home games including beating 2 SL clubs, or failing that, beat one SL club home plus another one away.

Wakefield did not melt down in the MPG last season, they beat us.

Your memory is playing tricks, Wakefield did melt down, just sadly didn't melt down quite close enough to the end of the season, so managed to panic-regroup and shore themselves up just enough (as it turned out), but yes I would say it is fair to say Wakey were still affected by their meltdown,and were still highly vulnerable, and that on the day we could and perhaps should have beaten them. In my view, they didn't beat us, we beat ourselves. It was there for the taking and we failed.

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:20 pm  

martinwildbull wrote:

What I and clearly other posters find difficult to understand about your position is that you seem to be saying that it is easier to gain promotion by beating two SL sides than by beating one in the MPG. Wakefield did not melt down in the MPG last season, they beat us. So why is it easier to get automatic promotion than it is to win the MPG?

I am totally with him there. Automatic promotion likely does take two wins. It need not necessarily though, I think it could be done with one in the unlikely situation that your own PD and that of others is kind. A SL team could lose to one CH team that is a genuine contender having already lost to a team that you hadn't yet got out of the mind frame of treating lightly. And now it's more a question of a side being relegated on merit rather than one being promoted. I think there are a couple of different paths to automatic promotion.

For the MPG everything is on the line and all participants know it. That is unlikely to go well for the CH side.

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:36 pm  

Mirfieldbull wrote:

Success next year should include:-

1. No WUP's or stories about people being paid late
2. All the squad makes some positive contribution, no one is brought in and doesn't see the light of day ever again
3. In the 4 and challenging for 2nd as a minimum (whether we can really challenge for no 1. depends who comes down, if its Hudds, & Davey continues to fund them, they should be the Leigh for 2017, Salford or HKR maybe different dependant on support from owners)
4. We are competitive in the middle 8's - games go into final quarter and we're still in with a chance
5. We show pride in defence every game
6. No repeats of debacles like Featherstone where it seemed like the players couldn't give a to55 (I don't want to believe that, but having witnessed it with my own eyes.....)
7. 2 of the juniors promoted into the squad for next year, nail down a first team place

From where we've been for the last 3-4 years, would be a step in the right direction, is it too much to ask.

Broadly agree with this. And I don't think it's too much to ask
Regarding point 2 I would be pleasantly surprised if EVERY squad member contributes. I cannot think of one team in Superleague or the championship where the fans have not had cause to criticise at least one squad member, often a new squad member. And there's been some notable examples. This year Owens at Saints and Lineham at the Wolves spring to mind.

At present we have a 2017 squad of 29 players, 6 of whom have been promoted from the Academy .It seems likely that a further 2 will be signed. That will mean that 14 players each match will not be playing - some injured, some out of favour or form. Of course there will be some rotation but Smith gives me the impression that he is not a Tinkerman and rotation will be limited.
I expect ( hope I'm wrong) that at least 3 of the squad will suffer long term injuries and at least 2 will not cut the mustard.
However I doubt that any player signed by Smith will fail because of a poor attitude.

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:53 pm  

Does this indicate Koukash has decided to support Salford next year? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/37287051

Does this indicate Koukash has decided to support Salford next year? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/37287051

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:56 pm  

[quote="Bullnorthern"]Broadly agree with this. And I don't think it's too much to ask
Regarding point 2 I would be pleasantly surprised if EVERY squad member contributes. I cannot think of one team in Superleague or the championship where the fans have not had cause to criticise at least one squad member, often a new squad member. And there's been some notable examples. This year Owens at Saints and Lineham at the Wolves spring to mind.

I wasn't thinking about the fans getting on the back of anyone, more players being signed and more or less disappearing into a black hole, think Walker, Thomas, Walshaw et al in the Lowes regime

Re: Buying into super league : Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:04 pm  

Mirfieldbull wrote: Does this indicate Koukash has decided to support Salford next year? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/37287051 Think it'll depend on if they go down or not, cant see him sticking around if they do go down.

Mirfieldbull wrote: Does this indicate Koukash has decided to support Salford next year? http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/37287051 Think it'll depend on if they go down or not, cant see him sticking around if they do go down.