Safety first - are we safe? : Sun May 05, 2019 9:13 pm  

We all know that usually the team that comes up from a lower league is odds on to go back down. Yes we are doing well and mid to top table looks achievable. Honestly though I'd be happy with some stability and looking at promotion in the next year or two.

So we have 16 points, how safe are we? I think just the bottom team relagated this season, which is currently Rochdale with 2 points. Anyone know the figures if we are secure. Seems silly to ask but you never know in this game.

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Mon May 06, 2019 10:15 am  

Unless we either undergo a full on financial meltdown again or we endure a massive injury crisis, I don't see us having to worry about relegation.

In reality, if we could get back some of our injured players back in the side along with a couple of extra players we should be easily able to push for a top 5 finish

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Mon May 06, 2019 11:17 am  

Number of points by the team in the last relegation place

2018 = 8
2017 = 11
2016 = 11
2015 = 10

So, to answer the question, yeah... we are safe from relegation

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Mon May 06, 2019 1:30 pm  

Probably safe in theory barring a full on meltdown, but mathematically, far from it. In fact not even Toronto are mathematically safe because nobody has played half their games yet.

Another 17 points gained on Swinton and 16 on Barrow for that. Which means another 8 wins and a draw from 14 remaining games. Of course every time those teams lose one each, that's one less Bradford need to win too.

I've compared to Swinton & Barrow purely because despite Rochdale being bottom, they have 2 games in hand. Which means they could gain more points (mathematically) than Swinton & Barrow. Although whether that happens or not will become evident in the next 3 or 4 months.

[Pumpetypump]

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Mon May 06, 2019 4:11 pm  

Yes we are safe and we will finish 8th. The lottery numbers for Saturday is 6,7,19,31,33 and 39.

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Mon May 06, 2019 6:25 pm  

We should be... well barring any points deductions..

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Mon May 06, 2019 6:38 pm  

For me yes Bradford are safe , the bottom 3 this season will be Barrow, Swinton, the Rochdale , who are the weakest team in the Championship.
I think the race for the top 5 this season will be very close after Toronto and Toulouse, could even go on points difference, my top 5 are .

Toronto,
Toulouse.
Bradford.
Leigh.
Fev. In this order.

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Tue May 07, 2019 1:44 pm  

I calculated the results of all remaining fixtures of all clubs, making the assumption that we never win another game, every result in every game went against us, that wherever possible no team above us beats a team below us.

There would be other possible permutations because as the season goes on the definition of one team being "below" or "above" another changes, but overall, the worst case scenario final league table would look something like this:

Fev 36
Halifax 36
Dewsbury 29
Batley 28
Toronto 26
Leigh 26
Toulouse 24
York 24
Widnes 24
Swinton 24
Rochdale 24
Sheffield 22
Barrow 21
Bradford 16

So I think we need 3 more wins to be mathematically safe. But the combination of results that would be needed for us to need 3 more wins is so bizarre, I think a Brexit by noon tomorrow is more likely. So not mathematically, but for all practical purposes, we are I conclude safe.

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Wed May 08, 2019 5:06 am  

Ferocious Aardvark wrote:

I calculated the results of all remaining fixtures of all clubs, making the assumption that we never win another game, every result in every game went against us, that wherever possible no team above us beats a team below us.

There would be other possible permutations because as the season goes on the definition of one team being "below" or "above" another changes, but overall, the worst case scenario final league table would look something like this:

Fev 36
Halifax 36
Dewsbury 29
Batley 28
Toronto 26
Leigh 26
Toulouse 24
York 24
Widnes 24
Swinton 24
Rochdale 24
Sheffield 22
Barrow 21
Bradford 16

So I think we need 3 more wins to be mathematically safe. But the combination of results that would be needed for us to need 3 more wins is so bizarre, I think a Brexit by noon tomorrow is more likely. So not mathematically, but for all practical purposes, we are I conclude safe.

You haven't accounted for an unlikely administration scenario!

Re: Safety first - are we safe? : Thu May 09, 2019 3:09 pm  

DrFeelgood wrote:

You haven't accounted for an unlikely administration scenario!