FAO Dave T : Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:03 pm  

Dave, I was wondering if you could help me. I am curious about last seasons points against and it's relationship to unforced errors.

Do you know of teams who had a similiar points against, with say a five percent variable and their error stats? Conversely, teams with similiar error rates and teir points conceded.

The reason I am asking you, is that it appears you have access to all manner of stats.

Cheers.

Re: FAO Dave T : Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:21 pm  

getdownmonkeyman wrote:

Dave, I was wondering if you could help me. I am curious about last seasons points against and it's relationship to unforced errors.

Do you know of teams who had a similiar points against, with say a five percent variable and their error stats? Conversely, teams with similiar error rates and teir points conceded.

The reason I am asking you, is that it appears you have access to all manner of stats.

Cheers.

Stats on the SL website should help you.

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:11 am  

I do use the SL Website for the official stats, it's a really useful site.

Looking at teams who conceded similar to us - I have gone for a 10% range either side of us, which gives 7 teams. Us, Quins, Wakefield, Wigan, Hull KR, Hull and Huddersfield.

I have looked at 3 key areas (IMO - it is worth pointing out at this stage that stats can be used to prove almost anything!), Errors, Tackles and Carries.

Errors (descending):

1 - Quins - 364
2 - Wire - 350
3 - Hull - 302
4 - Hudds - 289
5 - Hull KR - 287
6 - Wakefield - 276
7 - Wigan - 270

Carries (ascending):

1 - Wakefield - 4860
2 - Wire - 4958
3 - Hull - 5072
4 - Wigan - 5111
5 - Hudds - 5133
6 - Quins - 5217
7 - Hull KR - 5245

Tackles (descending):

1 - Quins - 8225
2 - Hull - 7807
3 - Hudds - 7724
4 - Hull KR - 7669
5 - Wire - 7606
6 - Wakefield - 7522
7 - Wigan - 7412

Some of my observations:
> The four teams with the lowest error counts in the league (all 12 teams) were Wigan, Wakefield, Hull KR, and Hudds, who were all within 10% of our points against.

> My general thought is that teams who make errors, have to complete more tackles, tire themselves out rather than tiring the opposition and lose the arm-wrestle. Things which challenge this though - Wakefield make 2nd fewest errors, make only 7th highest no. of tackles, yet have the ball less than any other team in SL. Is this due to the slow speed that they play with the ball? Do they not force repeat sets? It is also important to remember that number of tackles is not just linked to number of carries. I'm not 100% sure how Opta count a tackle, but a succesful offload in a tackle, may mean that 2 or 3 tackles are completed in one official 'tackle', and they may count more than 1 player in each tackle.

> Leeds make joint 3rd highest no. of errors in SL, just 1 per match better than us, yet have the best defence. They then make fewer tackles than us, and more carries. Does this mean that they force more errors from their opposition to get the ball back? Do they slow the play the ball down when the opposition have the ball so they complete fewer tackles? Are their first up tackles more effective?

> Whilst we are 2nd in the error count, the best team (Wigan) average 10 per match, and the worst (Quins) average 13.5, with us coming in at 13. When you link this to the points conceded, if we would have conceded 1 try less per match last year, we would have had the 2nd best defence in the league. Were these extra couple of mistakes crucial in us conceding those tries?

Overall, it is very difficult to say conclusively whether it is errors that cost us, or whether it is defensive structure, and both would have to be factors, as you can make the argument that because we make mistakes we spend long periods defending, not tiring the opposition out etc. but other teams make mistakes yet have decent defence.

Interestingly, despite our more conservative style so far this year, we are top of the mistakes table, and have made 26 in two games, which shows things aren't improving.

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 7:18 am  

Dave T wrote:

I do use the SL Website for the official stats, it's a really useful site.

Looking at teams who conceded similar to us - I have gone for a 10% range either side of us, which gives 7 teams. Us, Quins, Wakefield, Wigan, Hull KR, Hull and Huddersfield.

I have looked at 3 key areas (IMO - it is worth pointing out at this stage that stats can be used to prove almost anything!), Errors, Tackles and Carries.

Errors (descending):

1 - Quins - 364
2 - Wire - 350
3 - Hull - 302
4 - Hudds - 289
5 - Hull KR - 287
6 - Wakefield - 276
7 - Wigan - 270

Carries (ascending):

1 - Wakefield - 4860
2 - Wire - 4958
3 - Hull - 5072
4 - Wigan - 5111
5 - Hudds - 5133
6 - Quins - 5217
7 - Hull KR - 5245

Tackles (descending):

1 - Quins - 8225
2 - Hull - 7807
3 - Hudds - 7724
4 - Hull KR - 7669
5 - Wire - 7606
6 - Wakefield - 7522
7 - Wigan - 7412

Some of my observations:
> The four teams with the lowest error counts in the league (all 12 teams) were Wigan, Wakefield, Hull KR, and Hudds, who were all within 10% of our points against.

> My general thought is that teams who make errors, have to complete more tackles, tire themselves out rather than tiring the opposition and lose the arm-wrestle. Things which challenge this though - Wakefield make 2nd fewest errors, make only 7th highest no. of tackles, yet have the ball less than any other team in SL. Is this due to the slow speed that they play with the ball? Do they not force repeat sets? It is also important to remember that number of tackles is not just linked to number of carries. I'm not 100% sure how Opta count a tackle, but a succesful offload in a tackle, may mean that 2 or 3 tackles are completed in one official 'tackle', and they may count more than 1 player in each tackle.

> Leeds make joint 3rd highest no. of errors in SL, just 1 per match better than us, yet have the best defence. They then make fewer tackles than us, and more carries. Does this mean that they force more errors from their opposition to get the ball back? Do they slow the play the ball down when the opposition have the ball so they complete fewer tackles? Are their first up tackles more effective?

> Whilst we are 2nd in the error count, the best team (Wigan) average 10 per match, and the worst (Quins) average 13.5, with us coming in at 13. When you link this to the points conceded, if we would have conceded 1 try less per match last year, we would have had the 2nd best defence in the league. Were these extra couple of mistakes crucial in us conceding those tries?

Overall, it is very difficult to say conclusively whether it is errors that cost us, or whether it is defensive structure, and both would have to be factors, as you can make the argument that because we make mistakes we spend long periods defending, not tiring the opposition out etc. but other teams make mistakes yet have decent defence.

Interestingly, despite our more conservative style so far this year, we are top of the mistakes table, and have made 26 in two games, which shows things aren't improving.

You are Phil Clarke and I claim my £5

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 8:38 am  

Dave T wrote:

Interestingly, despite our more conservative style so far this year, we are top of the mistakes table, and have made 26 in two games, which shows things aren't improving.

And that is the most depressing thing I've read on here for ages.

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 9:21 am  

Bad Boy wrote:

You are Phil Clarke and I claim my £5

Dont start that crap gain.

Its so 2007/08.

We've moved on sunshine.

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 9:25 am  

Lowes Out Hanley In wrote:

Dont start that crap gain.

Its so 2007/08.

We've moved on sunshine.

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 10:54 am  

Dave T wrote:

lots of stuff about stats

at "Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:11 am"

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 10:55 am  

Bad Boy wrote:

You are Phil Clarke and I claim my £5

To be fair, Clarke normally forms concrete conclusions from his analysis whearas Dave T has shown stats can't prove much on their own.

: Fri Feb 27, 2009 1:16 pm  

SEB wrote:

at "Fri Feb 27, 2009 2:11 am"

Tell me about it. Trouble sleeping, think my last post on either here or Totalrl.com was about 5.30ish!

I was hoping a stats thread would send me to sleep, but no such luck!