: Wed Apr 01, 2009 2:56 pm  

worthing wire wrote:

Eh?

You need form over the big fences but not in the National ie. Becher Chase, Topham and to a lesser extent the Grand Sefton and Foxhunters.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 2:58 pm  

worthing wire wrote:

Yes, I gather all that. I just think that ruling out horses who have previously completed slightly contradicts the form over the fences bit.

Amberleigh House was placed the year before it won;
Hedgehunter fell at the last one year, won it the next and was 2nd the next;
West Tip placed three times after winning it;
Monty's Pass was placed the year after it won;
Party Politics placed subsequent to winning

I could probably go on. But won't

Apologies - it's more horses who've previously placed/completed without winning to rule out

Will post a couple of my strong fancies tommorow. Nothing at a monster price but value non the less.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 5:07 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

Apologies - it's more horses who've previously placed/completed without winning to rule out

Will post a couple of my strong fancies tommorow. Nothing at a monster price but value non the less.

That figures - was on this creature called Brave Highlander for years in the hope it would eventually come good. Usually got round, but 1 4th place was the best it ever did for me

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 6:41 pm  

He ran well a good few times - was unlucky to come down at the Canal Turn one year, Phillip Hide used to ride him a fair bit and he was always plotted up for the National.

Every year the trainer would say the same thing "the big aim is the National" etc. same for Clan Royal too.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:09 pm  

Latchford Wolvesfan wrote:

Some very interesting entries, Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander are both entered for the Melling and the Bowl, cant see either of them beating Denman in the Bowl, so may take on Voy Pur in the Melling who would have improved from it's Festival run.

Depends if Sir Robert Ogden wants Exotic Dancer running against Voy Por.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:23 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

It's easy enough to narrow it down to a few serious contenders.

Rule out the following:

Horses who have fallen or unseated this season

Horses aged 6 or those aged 12 and over

Those who have completed in previous Nationals


Positives: Form over the National fences.

What about those that have won it more than once or been placed more than once

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:29 pm  

This is the one and only Horse race I bet on and have gone for the following...

£10 Black Apalachi to win @ 16/1

£2 Stan each way @ 100/1

£5 Can't buy time each way @ 50/1


Have picked 2 winners in the past - West Tip and Red Marauder

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:44 pm  

If they've won it more than once it constitutes a win so they are in. However if they've placed more than once without winning they're out.

To clear it up:

If your horse has completed the National before it should be in 1st place.
If it has run in the National it has to have PU, BD, UR, F etc. the moment it finishes and doesn't win it's off the list.

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:51 pm  

Carneys Pint wrote:

If they've won it more than once it constitutes a win so they are in. However if they've placed more than once without winning they're out.

To clear it up:

If your horse has completed the National before it should be in 1st place.
If it has run in the National it has to have PU, BD, UR, F etc. the moment it finishes and doesn't win it's off the list.

You clearly know a lot more about horse racing that me.

PU, BD, UR, F etc

I don't have the faintest idea what you're on about

: Wed Apr 01, 2009 7:55 pm  

Pulled up
Brought down
Unseated rider
Fell
Etc...