: Wed Aug 12, 2009 10:31 pm  

Chris Dalton wrote:

We pretty much should be, but I don't think a spell in Championship 1 with miniscule crowds when we are presenting our credentials will do us any good. If this league is truly random there is a 16% chance we will be relegated at the end of it. There are other factors to consider for us so it isnt truly 100% random, but you only need to see just how competitive it is this year. Leigh are a team who should be safe and they're struggling.

We should be nailed on for a license, but then we should have been last time and we were overlooked.

Isn't it a 20% chance we could go down? 2 teams will go down next year in an 11 team league but 1 of those (Toulouse) can't go down anyway. so by my maths 2/10 x 100 = 20%

Still on the bright side, there is an 80% we'll stay up and also we don't know how hard the economic situation is going to hit other teams. Fax's spending suggests they think they are ok, but what about everyone else? It will be interesting to see if Fax can afford to run an youth set-up and a competitive 1st team.

For us to have the best chance of staying up and also winning a licence would be if either Leigh or Gateshead go down this year. If that was to happen, a) it would take one of our rivals out of the SL equation and b) Batley would still be one of the prime contenders to go down next year. If both Leigh and Gateshead stay up, there will be no guarantee that they will be down the bottom again next year. Looking at the fixtures though, Batley look to be in the most trouble IMO - it was a big missed chance when they lost to Sheffield on Sunday. If Batley do go down and Leigh do strengthen, next year could be even more competive than this year.

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 9:02 am  

Hang on have I missed something? What's all this talk of relegation???

I also think the maths have been overly simplified to reach that probability...

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:05 am  

GetThemScallyWags wrote:

Hang on have I missed something? What's all this talk of relegation???

I also think the maths have been overly simplified to reach that probability...

Correct!
Stupid aint it!

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:12 am  

It'd be stupid of us not to approach Wire / Wigan / Saints to strike up similar partnerships.

I'd say only a quarter (if that) of youngsters come through to the first team from their academies so there is plenty of young talent going spare. Similarly to Pickersgill and Penny, if we can take youngsters on a dual contract, we have every chance of signing some more for SL.

I'm sure the RFL would be impressed if we intend to field a young, British squad in 2012. (Hell, even if we don't, why not lead them on?)

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:19 am  

richardviking wrote:

It'd be stupid of us not to approach Wire / Wigan / Saints to strike up similar partnerships.

I'd say only a quarter (if that) of youngsters come through to the first team from their academies so there is plenty of young talent going spare. Similarly to Pickersgill and Penny, if we can take youngsters on a dual contract, we have every chance of signing some more for SL.

I'm sure the RFL would be impressed if we intend to field a young, British squad in 2012. (Hell, even if we don't, why not lead them on?)

You actually want to become a feeder club?

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:31 am  

Pepe wrote:

You actually want to become a feeder club?

With Pepe! Worst thing we can do is become a feeder club! For the next 2 years Widnes need to show as an organisation how much we stand up over EVERYONE else in this division! Let other sides 'link up' with SL clubs or whatever!

We'll stand alone as the 1 side in NL with an acdemy and as a side who loan A LOT of players to lower league sides (Blackpool / Rochdale) we'll look like the parent club in this and will show simply we are too good (AS A SET UP!) for the national leagues!

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:44 am  

J20 wrote:

With Pepe! Worst thing we can do is become a feeder club! For the next 2 years Widnes need to show as an organisation how much we stand up over EVERYONE else in this division! Let other sides 'link up' with SL clubs or whatever!

We'll stand alone as the 1 side in NL with an acdemy and as a side who loan A LOT of players to lower league sides (Blackpool / Rochdale) we'll look like the parent club in this and will show simply we are too good (AS A SET UP!) for the national leagues!

This is part of what me and Chris have been trying to get through to people. There will be a massive advantage to becoming a feeder club in the Championship, because the cap has now been lowered. Now that dual registrations do not count on the cap, trying to stand alone, with a £300,000 cap, will be both expensive and unlikely to produce a winning team.

A smaller club could recruit a team mostly made up of dual registration players and a handful of quality players from this division, and end up with a far better team. As richardviking has said it would be stupid not to aproach local SL clubs rather than run costly academy sides in these circumstances. The money you save will allow you to bring in higher quality SL club youngsters and better Championship players.

In other words, we are now a league of feeder clubs. Our larger crowds will count for nothing and even running academies would be more of a hindrance. If we do not get out of this league in 2012 this is our future.

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:02 pm  

Pepe wrote:

running academies would be more of a hindrance. If we do not get out of this league in 2012 this is our future.

Thats short term thinking. Payments to players who are under 21 on 31 August in the year preceding the Salary Cap Year in question will continue not to count towards a club’s salary cap spend so running academies is very beneficial and is what clubs are been encouraged to do rather than spend money on players who have failed at super league level.

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:07 pm  

Becoming a feeder club is the wrongway to look at it. Sure, Widnes could become Warrington Under21s, but I'm not suggesting a firesale of SL's young players.

Maybe 3 or 4 could be brought in.

: Thu Aug 13, 2009 12:15 pm  

rhinofox wrote:

Thats short term thinking. Payments to players who are under 21 on 31 August in the year preceding the Salary Cap Year in question will continue not to count towards a club’s salary cap spend so running academies is very beneficial and is what clubs are been encouraged to do rather than spend money on players who have failed at super league level.

No it's long term thinking.

Why go to the expense of running academies when you can just dip into SL academies and save the money to bring in better players?

Trying to continue as before is no longer an option because the situation has now changed. With the introduction of a £300,000 SC and the ability to sign dual registered youngsters, we now face a very different environment in which to be competitive; an environment that will suit smaller clubs far better than clubs with ambition. Fans will turn away from clubs once they become feeder clubs. If this does happen to Widnes, then I've finished with the game for good too.

2012 will probably be the last chance for a heartland club to move up to SL. After that there probably will not be a club capable of meeting the criteria. Sadly I include Widnes in that also.