Re: Hunslet v Dons Sunday 2nd July 2023 at 3pm : Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:49 pm
I've been away on holiday for a week and come back to this...I always feared that without either of Connor Robinson or Ben Johnston we could hit trouble. It seems like we had a stinker across the board on Sunday though.
We've scraped home in a few games this season - not looking totally convincing. We've conceded more tries than a good team should - showing we have vulnerabilities.
Where does this leave us?
Dews: 14, 27, +376
Dons: 12, 20, +154
Huns: 12, 18, +198
Oldh: 12, 17, +208
Work: 11, 14, +114
Our maximum points is 32. If Dewsbury get five or more points, we can't catch them. If Dewsbury win their next three, they'll be champions by the time we play them.
Dewsbury: N Wales (H), Hunslet (A), Workington (H), Dons (A). It looks like Dewsbury would have to lose to both Hunslet and the Dons for them not to be champions. N Wales and Workington might give Dewsbury something to think about but on home soil they must be strong favourites to win both.
How tricky are our remaining games?
Dons: Midlands (H), Workington (A), N Wales (A), London (H), Cornwall (H), Dewsbury (H).
Worky (A) and N Wales (A) could be challenges. We certainly need to bounce back at home to Midlands or else we could get in a tailspin.
Can we be caught for second?
Hunslet: Midlands (A), Oldham (H), Dewsbury (H), Rochdale (A), London (H), Workington (A)
Oldham: N Wales (H), Hunslet (A), Cornwall (A), Rochdale (A), Midlands (H), Workington (H) to be arranged
The good news is that Hunslet have got to play Oldham which means one of them must drop points.
Unless we nosedive, it's possible that Hunslet will need to beat Oldham and Dewsbury to finish second.
Oldham seem to have an easier run-in. If they beat Hunslet and win all their other games, they'd finish on 29 points. In that case, we'd need 5 wins from our last 6 to be assured of finishing above them.
The combinations are aplenty but we might have to beat Dewsbury at home to finish second. If they're champions at that point, they may take their foot off the gas against us (or is that wishful thinking?!)
The issues:
Mathmatically, finishing top is less likely now than before the Hunslet loss but after such a lacklustre performance, it feels as though we've niow got something to prove.
Whilst we've beaten Oldham several times, I'd still rate it 50/50 should we play them again. I'm sure Hunslet would fancy their chances against us, so we've got two very serious play-off rivals.
Chances of promotion:
At this point, with regards to promotion, I'd say Dewsbury have a 95% chance of going up with Dons, Oldham and Hunslet each having around a 35% chance. (95 + 35 +35 +35 = 200)
In terms of odds, that makes our chance slightly less than 2/1 (around 15/8) - the same as Oldham and Hunslet. I'm assuming N Wales and Workington won't upset the odds and promotion is between the top four.
The lottery of the play-offs means that if key players are missing, (like Ben Johnston on Sunday) we could be buggered. Let's hope we regain some form quickly and give ourselves the best possible chance over the coming weeks.
