I think the person who suggested that is a Wakey fan being mischievous - he's had quite a few posts on RLFans but isn't a regular on here, which maybe suggests that anyway.

If we lose against Wakefield at home we're down, it's as simple as that. With the cushion they've got they really don't have to worry. If they put their season on that game it effectively wipes us out.

Nobody fancy my prediction spreadsheet, then?

Saints 52

Leeds 49

Castleford 38

Wigan 36

Warrington 34

Hull KR 31

Hudds 28

Widnes 24

----------------

Hull 22

Catalans 20

Salford 20

Bulls 10

-----------------

Wakefield 8

London 0

Not sure there's much point in me doing it, FA.



My trouble is I'm overly optimistic. Which translates into my seeing fairly inconsequential events as significant reasons for the natural order being overturned. I'll see a top side having one of their seven internationals apparently 'carrying a knock', and the fact we, at that point in time, are in the unusual position of having almost 18 fully fit players to choose from as a sign that we just 'might nick it' - so I'd probably put us down to win the lot, just to be on the safe side.



Also, as I said earlier, I believe, in general that you tend to lose games you banked on and also win some you consider pretty unlikely, so it doesn't really work for me. Mind, even I'm having trouble finding the 'bankers' this season.

Au Contraire, no mischief at all. Whilst no game can be considered a gimmie, the form book doesn’t lie, Wakefield’s win rate against Bradford must be the lowest of all the other clubs in the SL era.



It may be so tight come the end of the season, that it could even be decided on point’s difference – oh the joy.

Oh, indeed, it's good down here innit....

I think if we want to avoid the drop we also need wins from the big boys (Leeds, Wigan, Warrington, St Helens, Huddersfield) it's no good us relying on getting wins over Wakefield and London to stay up, Salford I think was a winnable game for us on Friday considering their recent form but at this at moment in time I can't see it happening.

I think we have 8 games to get out of the bottom 2. After next Thursday we will be 1/3 the way through the season and we could still be 6 points behind the 12th place - exactly the same as we were at the start.



Two teams down means there are going to be up to 50 current SL players looking to find a place in a team that stays up. That means each of the other 12 teams need to take 4 players each. That won't happen as they won't have the cap space and these 50 players aren't exactly world beaters.



Come July and the players in the two bottom teams will be talking to their agents about getting a new club or agreeing a release so they can sign for next season with a SL club. How many of our players would choose to stay with us? Our good youngsters should be snapped up by other clubs. It is a struggle to decide who would stay.



The two bottom clubs may even start planning for relegation and the need to cut their wage bill to match the championship cap. For the Bulls I am guessing they will need to cut about £500k as the championship is about £900K up to what we are spending this year - again guessing about £1.4m. Rumours will start appearing about players signing up for other clubs to beat the rush in August and these two bottom clubs letting players look around and telling other players they will not be offered new contracts.



We do still have a chance but this is why I fear we only have about 8 games to climb up to 12th. If we are still 6 points adrift I fear we will see the club actively planning for the drop and putting plan Z into action.



Fingers crossed but a massive two months ahead.

The trouble with any plan for relegation is that we could not afford to open the gates with the size of crowds we would get let alone afford to pay a half decent squad with a chance of getting promotion

FAs prediction doodar is a curious thing. I'll be honest I'm of the belief that we are already as good as relegated. But when you complete the predictor it at least gives a glimmer of hope.



If only we could have nicked it at widnes..... If only if only

If the new owner and board are serious about keeping us up, then they need to be working round the clock on getting those 6 points back off the RFL.



I don't think panic buying of players will change much of how the team play as I don't think there's really anyone of sufficient quality who's currently available and as FC has already said he won't stoop to the level of other clubs and try and unsettle players, I don't see that situation changing.

just had a go with FA's predictor...now....some folk might call me biased, but, I had us to finish as league leaders with Leeds finishing bottom

Another prop and my confidence will be much higher.



Wonder what Tom B is up to over in Aus - not seen him play for Souths this season.......

Only way we can do that is paying back creditors. The large HMRC be would be the absolute minimum the RFL would expect us to pay back to even consider handing any points back.



The teams character will be tested to the limit here in next few weeks. Cummins as always praised it. We really need it now. On paper we have a good



The forwards have to roll their sleeves up and running like a train on to the ball. Against Salford our biggest metre maker was 89. Thats pathetic!



The backs need to be backing up every play just in case we make a break and also pushing up in defence even when ball on other side of field.



Lastly Luke Gale needs to pull his finger out of his backside. Since Wakefield game i cant think of anything positive hes done! Get the bloody attacking line organised and get some dummy runners!!!

If you do the spreadsheet then you will certainly get a pleasant surprise





Only one person brave enough to do it, and post it, so far. Surely you're not all shiverers?!

Well, the club have launched their appeal against the points deduction today.

Now awaiting a hearing date

Here we go, using the FA predictor I get;



St. Helens...50

Leeds........45

Wigan........38

Hudds........36

Warrington....32

Castleford....30

Hull FC........30

Catalans....28

Hull KR........25

Salford........18

Widnes........18

Wakefield....12

Bradford......10

London......0



So I reckon the points appeal is pretty crucial.

For the record thats wakey winning against Cas(H), Lon(H), Wid(H) and HKR(H).

and the Bulls winning against Wak(H), HKR(H), Cat(H), Wid(H), Lon(A), plus one other surprise win from somewhere. (something like a real surprise/off day for the home team at Hud (A), Cat (A) Wig (A) or Sal (A) )



I've probably been a bit too positive for us and negative for wakey and I still have us relegated unless we get 2 points back on appeal. So its a big, unlikely ask....but its not a done deal yet. And FA is right, we pick up results towrds the end of the season, not over the next 6 weeks, so we're going to have to hang in there for a while. Also, if there was any doubt, its only London and wakey we're playing against, no other results matter, so we need Widnes/HKR/Catalan to beat Wakey if possible - because we're not catching anyone other than London and hopefully Wakey.

and it does seem to chime with his stated honourable way of doing business - that said, if anyone were to think about 'unsettling' a player they wouldn't advertise the fact would they? I mean Wakey never made an announcement that they were going to 'unsettle' Sammut and Scruton, did they - they just got unsettled and finished up at Wakefield.

part-time players on a much lower cap and used to playing against lower standard opposition. It is possible, though it very rarely happens in modern RL, that a club in this position can raise their game for a one-off occasion in the cup - but they sure as hell ain't gonna do it four times in a league situation.



There is such an inevitability of the four SL clubs coming in at 1 to 4 in this mini league that you have to consider that this was the intention all along. The chance of 'promotion' is entirely an illusion, imo, and if we drop we'll be down until they change to straight P&R or bring back licensing at some unspecified time in the future.

To be quite honest although friday was a bit poor, i cant see a problem with us challenging Wigan and Wire over the coming weeks as their form seems to be up and down at the mo, that being said i can imagine them seeing us as an easy 2 points (which in all fairness they should) but i can sense an upset or two in the coming weeks

Its a long shot but its a shot. Plus youve got to remember you dont have to finish in position 1-4. The 4th and 5th placed teams at the end of the middle 8 play each other in a final one off decider, so you only have to be in the top 5 of the 8 team mini league to be, at worst, 80 minutes from SL, and then why couldnt we be the club that raises their game for a one-off occasion?

I know the situations are a little different between now and 2010, but it was often said that it was a big mistake to stick by McNamara while we were on that horrible run of 11 losses. (I know he left and St Hilaire took over for a few games)



But at the moment we're on 5 straight league defeats with no realistic/predictable win in perhaps the next 5 or 6 league games. Last season we had a run of 6 straight defeats which extended to 1 win in 10.



My point is, with a heavy heart, should the board take a serious look at replacing Cummins?



edit: the Wakefield message board are already getting very twitchy and want Agar out, but money seems to be the stumbling block for paying him off... for the time being at least anyway.

I'm not following this ... if the likelihood is we realistically will not win any of the next few games, what difference would replacing Cummins make, apart from we would lose the self-same games under a different coach?

Nobody knows for certain, all it could take is a fresh idea or two to tweak things, i.e. perhaps a subtle change to defensive patterns or a shift in balance in training between x and y, and then we could find our form. Of course it's only speculation, but further down the line it becomes hindsight.



Yes, we're low on numbers and Francis has dealt with shiite no other coach has but who's to say he's really the right man? At what point does it become too late to do anything?



There's too much at stake to leave it to "what if". Some may see it as knee-jerk, or changes for changes sake, and of course anyone is welcome to because it's a forum, but I really think drastic changes are needed. The minimum should be another assistant to shake up our defence. However, I'm beginning to think more changes are needed.



What do you think FA?