i know, thats why i put the quotation marks in

Regardless of what’s happened or not in South Africa, why not get the booster? Science shows Omicron evades our current vaccines and the booster protects around 85%.



Also, South Africa has a younger population & also has their vaccines later than in the UK so likely had more immunity. That’s exactly the reason you cannot draw parallels to South Africa.



What point are you even trying to make? Can you just reply without links to websites or riddles and state your stance.

It only needs 10% of the UK population to go unvaccinated to create another lockdown. Beds that could used for other conditions, will be taken up for ignorance to vaccination.

First of all, I have had the booster. You are like Sage, you pick and choose the bit of science you want to use in your argument! Back to my original question, how many people are in hospital with the Omicron variant and how many have died? It is irrelevant how many people are infected with it if it doesn't hospitalise or kill them! Now to South Africa, only 26% of the population have been doubly vaccinated so, irrespective of the demographic of the population more people should be catching it, in hospital from it and ultimately dying from it. The last time I looked, the UK had 70% of its population jabbed and 40% had received their booster, so there is no way we should be badly affected unless, that is, they are pumping some useless chemical into us (which I don't believe they are). The other major issue is that we are vaccinating youngsters and we shouldn't be because the science does not support it, but that is an issue for another day.



The problem with the government's scientists is that they constantly model on the worst case scenario and guess what, they have never been right yet. In order to make reasonable judgments the government should also be presented with a best case scenario and a mid-point scenario, its about basic science not about putting the fear of god into the population and ruining the economy. These knee-jerk decisions will kill more than Covid but you won't see any figures. Why? Because anyone who has contracted this disease, irrespective of whether they have died from a heart attack or cancer, will only have the former written on their death certificate.



What happens to a virus, we can all find out in our GCSE Science books. It mutates and gradually gets weaker. Why, because the last thing it wants to do is kill its host (us) because ultimately it would kill itself.



By the way, my view is not based on political persuasion as I did not vote for either of the major protagonists.

SAGE member admitted on Saturday to a Spectator jurno that they sre only requested to model worst case scenario. They have been out massively everytime. Last prediction before October was 7k hospitalisation a day in October. Never topped 800. As you say model on 3 scenarios is needed otherwise its purely Gov propaganda.

Exactly. If I did my job like Professor Ferguson or highlighted graphs of the quality Whitty and Valance produce I would be sacked.

The prediction you refer to was one of three scenarios at the time; they did exactly what you are saying they don't do.



Actual position was proadly in line with their best case, the worst case was flagged as extremely unlikely absent a new variant, which is what we have now.

Have you read the article



Every prediction they make is way out. October's 7k a day hospitalisation. 5000k a day from Omicron. And allegedly 1 death worldwide. Their predictions are now getting questiond by cabinet.

For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks..........



[urlhttps://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894[/url

Quote Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy="Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy"For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks.......... [urlhttps://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894[/url'" Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee

Quote Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy="Wigan6/Leeds1 Andy"For those who take their mathematical modelling advice from a political journalist at the Spectator with a long history of being wrong or members of the Cabinet (!) - an expert speaks.......... [urlhttps://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1472935679139237894[/url'" Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee

This is the quote I was going to reply with



"Science must guide Covid course to protect NHS from 'collapse' - health boss



As we've reported, the cabinet is meeting at the moment.



While we're waiting to hear what the outcome of that is, here are some comments from health bosses who have been warning of the mounting pressure on the NHS.



Patricia Marquis, England director at the Royal College of Nursing, calls on ministers to listen to "whatever the scientific advisers are saying" about the pattern of Omicron's spread and "the effect that it's having on people, their health and the health services" to ease off the pressure on the NHS.



The science needs to guide what comes next to protect the health service from what could be a "real collapse", she tells the BBC.



Meanwhile Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts, says pressure on London trusts, including hospitals, community mental health and ambulance trusts, has been "mounting rapidly" in the past week.



"The number of hospitalised Covid patients or patients who tested positive for Covid has gone up by 30% in a week, at a time when nationally it's only gone up by 4%," he tells Times Radio."



Anybody would think certain posters are only cherry pi King what they want to read despite criticising others and claiming that's what they do.



It's like criticism of lockdown or social distancing saying only "X" died

Or criticism of vaccines and vaccination programs or vaccine passports and saying either only "X" died etc. Or "X" vaccinated people are still passing it on when when vaccinated.



Imagine how bad it would have been if we hadn't locked down or had vaccines etc.

Quote tank123="tank123"Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee'" I haven't missed out anything - the Chair of Modelling has responded and basically said Nelson's talking poop and misrepresenting (surprise, surprise). Hmm who to believe in terms of mathematical modelling - a professor of infectious disease modelling or political hack with an agenda? Difficult one that.

Quote tank123="tank123"Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee'" I haven't missed out anything - the Chair of Modelling has responded and basically said Nelson's talking poop and misrepresenting (surprise, surprise). Hmm who to believe in terms of mathematical modelling - a professor of infectious disease modelling or political hack with an agenda? Difficult one that.

Twitter discussion is very informative between the 2. He is now trying to defend himself. Time for all scenarios to be given to the public. And not the one for fear.

Quote tank123="tank123"Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee'" Honestly ? Seriously? You do understand what she was saying in the video WLA provided don't you and I would suggest what the guy in your link was trying to say don't you? You do realise the difference between a scenario and a prediction don't you? You do realise that bad scenarios are acted upon to avoid them coming true don't you ??? Anyway, you already have your own Answers I suspect, I'll let you get on with finding evidence to suit your pre decided answer.

Quote tank123="tank123"Interesting you missed out the discussion was between the jurno and a member of SAGE. And chaiirman of the modelling. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee'" Honestly ? Seriously? You do understand what she was saying in the video WLA provided don't you and I would suggest what the guy in your link was trying to say don't you? You do realise the difference between a scenario and a prediction don't you? You do realise that bad scenarios are acted upon to avoid them coming true don't you ??? Anyway, you already have your own Answers I suspect, I'll let you get on with finding evidence to suit your pre decided answer.

Which goes back to my original post and the explanation video by an expert of what actually happens.

I'll give you the scenarios of you like?



1/ no people are hospitalised or die

2/ some people are hospitalised or die

3/ a lot of people are hospitalised or die



There won't be 1 answer to hopefully reduce 3 to 2 to hopefully 1



Vaccines

Social distancing

Lockdown if needed

Etc, which h you can plan for

Along with "Hopefully" the new strain not being as deadly etc which you can't

Never seem them made public only worse case

Where's all the extra money gone?

As for the variant it spreads a lot quicker. Drs who deal with patients in Africa says its not as bad on lungs as the inital variant or Delta. Ppl stay in hospital for less days and little need for oxygen It was originally discovered 9th nov. You might think i am anti SAGE. Problem i have is with Boris and his management of the data. According to the spectator article its the Gov who then uses the figures which they ask for. I just want them to be honest and tell us the truth.



Thanks for you reply appreciated.

It's funny that many talk about cherry picking, but fail to even reference numerous financial experts who've noted the catastrophic impact another lockdown will have on the economy. The people calling for us to 'save the NHS' are funnily enough the most secure job wise - lockdown or not, they'll continue to go into work at the NHS. Those of us in the services sector, aren't that lucky. I've seen plenty of my clients, good people who've invested their everything into businesses fall on hard times.



Now the majority have had their jabs and there's apparently record booster numbers too - we can't keep doing the one foot in, one foot out of lockdown BS.

I do understand given the more positive data/news going around why people are frustrated by the thought of more measures.



Case rates look to have peaked and now on the decline in Guateng

Huge decline in the death rate during the Omicron wave in South Africa compared to Delta

Hospital stays shorter in S Africa and Denmark

50% of adults receiving the booster including most of the vulnerable and nearly 1m a day being administered now

Antivirals starting to be rolled out



I would be really surprised if Omicron causes a lot of deaths in the UK given the above but hospitals could still be in danger of having too many patients to deal with and too few staff to deal with them given the sheer numbers in the UK. I probably would favour the short 2-3 week circuit breaker option to relieve a bit of the pressure on hospitals and buy some time for getting all adults who want one their 3rd jab. Plus it would end before the rugby starts

But if we're going to do it I'd honestly prefer to get the most we can out of that time and have full lockdown rules. Would have to come with appropriate financial support for all affected.

That's a balanced opinion tbf, but the appropriate financial support will always need to be paid back in the end.



Once again, it will be those businesses that suffered the most that will continue to suffer. The business that was forced to mothball and had little choice but to take out a loan, that now needs to pay it back + the deal with the undoubted tax increases that will come. After all, how else is the money going to be paid back if not via tax rises?



I'm sure the same medical experts will then be calling for more funding for the NHS too.



I said it a couple of days ago, you can't just listen to the medical experts. It's admirable tunnel vision with them i.e protect the NHS, but plenty of it is at odds with how the world works outside of their NHS bubble.

Vaccines were indeed the game changer with proven empirical results however, I believe the objective of the vaccine is to reduce the severity of the virus and the reduction in getting and potentially passing on the virus was a gratefully received bonus.

The virus as we now know is airborne so it gets into the body via nose/mouth and attaches itself to cells in the throat/lungs whilst the vaccine is input into the bloodstream which means the virus is established before the vaccine can start to do it’s job which it does well but still too late to stop the virus.



I suspect the real answer to the virus ( I also suspect that sage and the government knew from the outset) is medication that can be taken via a spray to the throat and nasal passage. Very little if any news is reported on this development and I’m bemused why that is the case unless the development of such a drug is beyond current known knowledge. The other answer is herd ammunity which has enabled the human race to exist for 40000 years (or as some believe 100000 years) and does have a part to play in this.



By the way I perhaps should have added I’ve had my jabs and my booster and would encourage everybody else to do so. I’ve got 3 siblings with chronic copd, 1 with cancer and a very good fried with cancer so I am fully aware of the impact on any of them if they we’re to get the virus. I’ve also lost 2 good friends to the thing so no way would I consider myself even remotely an anti vaxxer but I would consider myself inquisitive on the issue.

The problem with being inquisitive on this issue is that it is difficult to determine even the most simplistic questions e.g. what was the target set by sage/government for vaccination take up? Is there a generally “accepted” level of take up eg 100%?

The answer to the first question I believe was no target was ever set and the second question no vaccine has ever had an advised target of 100% anywhere in the free world since the very first vaccine.



You state people cheery pick what they want they want to hear or state but it applies across the board from all sides of the argument (it should be debate but that term is now virtually extinct).

A 30% increase can initially be startling however, if the comparator is from a low number then the actual increase can in fact be quite small. I’m not saying that it is small but context should always be applied where doubt could occur.

The comparator is also important. Week on week is obviously an important one but if the vaccine really is the game changer then year on year comparators are also essential.



You state that lockdowns work but based on what? Worked for whom? I reluctantly supported the first lockdown but now with vaccines should things not be different?



The MSM are hand tied by OFCOM so no real debate has taken place on the virus so people revert to Twitter (god knows why) and YT where people like Corbyn are spewing tripe. This also means that other eminent scientists and epidemiologists never get the chance to discuss alternative courses in meaningful debate with their peers.

Professor Gupta at Oxford University is one one the most eminent epidemiologist in the world but to my knowledge she has never appeared on MST sine the start of COVID. Do I agree with her views? I’m actually unsure but would like to see her discuss the issue with her counterpart on sage.



For me the elephant in the room is the NHS. I’m not anti NHS having my life saved by superbly trained staff and countless friends and relatives also benefiting from the service.

I suspect at the moment lack of staff or more importantly the right staff in the right place is the fundamental issue which COVID has fully exposed. Every winter season the NHS is at “breaking point” but nothing seems to change. Money/finance is the obvious issue but inflexible staffing also means that resources cannot be flexed at peak times for winter ailments such as flu, COVID etc.



At the time I thought the Nightingale hospitals were the potential long term answer to an extremely difficult and repetitive problem however, the lack of trained staff made them redundant before they really started.

I’d happily pay more tax for a better quality and more flexible nhs however, that’s easy for me but for millions of others just not doable even if they supported it in principle.

It’s a monumental task and as I wouldn’t know Hopson even if I fell over him is he the guy to fundamentally change the nhs?

The daily cases of Omicron are reported, along with vaccine roll-out, hospitalisations and sadly deaths. However I struggle to find what I feel is key data with would allow me to make an informed decision as a fully vaccinated person, as to additional actions I would take, and support, and that is "what percentage of omicron cases are occurring in the 1) Fully vaccinated (i.e. 3 jabs) and 2) the partially or zero vaccinated population?. In addition what are the demographics?"

If anyone could point me in the right direction to a source of this info, I'd be grateful.

Would we discover that the UK is in the midst of an epidemic of the younger age groups and / or the not fully vaccinated?

Took me about 20 seconds to find the following that shows all ranges. Like I said, listen to the expert not the political hack..



[urlhttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-to-epidemiological-modelling[/url